Japan emerges as key player on Iran

[Cees Binkhorst]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

Vervelend voor de Amerikanen (en Netanyahu, long-time Mossad Chief Meir
Dagan & Co.) dat Iran nog steeds vrienden heeft.
Moeten de onlusten in ieder geval Iran nog maar even doorgaan?

Helaas zal er af en toe ook iemand buiten Iran aan moeten geloven, maar
ja, waar gehakt wordt vallen spaanders.

Groet / Cees

Laura Rozen: on foreign policy: Japan emerges as key player on Iran
http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/
January 31, 2010
As the diplomatic fallout from Beijing over the $6.4 billion U.S. arms
sale to Taiwan is still being measured, rival Asian power Japan has
emerged as an increasingly important player in international
negotiations on Iran, U.S. officials and foreign policy experts said.

As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, with an avowed
interest in nuclear disarmament, and a veteran Japanese diplomat at the
helm of the UN atomic watchdog agency, Japan has found its role on
international negotiations with Iran elevated with a push from the Obama
administration, in particular as U.S.-Chinese relations are going
through an extended adjustment period.

Japan’s strong relations with both Washington and Iran have also led it
to take on a key behind the scenes role in trying to negotiate a
possible nuclear fuel swap deal between the West and Iran, regional
expert sources said, although there were differing accounts of how
promising such efforts have been.

At the same time, the Obama administration has been pushing for Japan to
be represented in international diplomatic meetings on Iran, in part as
a counterweight to Beijing. China, a permanent member of the UN Security
Council and the so called P5+1 group on Iran -- the permanent five
members of the UN Security Council plus Germany -- has expressed
misgivings about any new international economic sanctions on Iran even
before the Taiwan arms sale deal was announced in Washington last week.

Washington Japan hands said a recent effort by Japan to invite Iranian
parliament speaker Ali Larijani to Tokyo to discuss a possible nuclear
fuel swap deal had been less than promising, while Iran experts said
Japan had briefed the Obama administration earlier this month on a
possible uranium fuel swap plan that resulted from their consultations
with the Iranians.

Under the alleged compromise fuel swap deal that Japanese diplomats
quietly briefed U.S. officials on earlier this month, some 70% of Iran’s
low enriched uranium stockpile would be moved to Japan, according to
what one Washington source, speaking anonymously, was told by the
Japanese. Japan would then take responsibility for the stockpile, and
ensure the delivery to Iran of fuel rods for nuclear medical use.

Japanese diplomats were said to consult several U.S. officials of the
possible plan in Washington around January 15th, including a deputy to
undersecretary of state Bill Burns, who was headed to New York for a
January 16th meeting of the P5+1 group on Iran. The deal was described
as having met a key western demand that Iran was previously said to
reject: that 70% of Iran’s LEU stockpile would be moved out of the
country in one batch. U.S. officials did not provide comment for the
article.

But a Washington Japan hand said Japanese-Iranian consultations on a
possible uranium fuel swap deal this month had been less productive, and
that the Japanese Foreign Minister had made public comments this month
indicating Japan might be willing to go along with the international
community should it decide to impose further economic sanctions on Iran.

So hinted a senior U.S. administration official when, in a background
briefing Friday on the Taiwan arms deal, he was asked whether the Obama
administration expected the arms sale to further reduce chances that
China would go along with a new, fourth round of UN Security Council
sanctions on Iran.

“The diplomacy surrounding the overall strategy with Iran extends beyond
the P5+1,” the senior administration official told journalists in a
background briefing Friday. “In recent high-level meetings with other
key Asian countries, the Secretary [of State Hillary Clinton] and others
have underscored – for instance, Japan and others – that the next step
will involve a more comprehensive set of stakes, taking affirmative
actions, and that we are looking to support from key states like Japan
in this process.”

Getting at least one of the leading Asian powers, China or Japan, on
board the international sanctions push was described as a key goal of
the Obama administration to help legitimate any further economic
sanctions and to make them more effective, a Washington Asia expert
said. But Japan's support for such measures is not yet a sure thing, and
the Obama administration would see failure to get both China and Japan
on board any further Iran sanctions push as a disaster, the Japan expert
said.

Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada alluded in general terms to
discussing Iran when he met with Clinton in Hawaii earlier this month.
“As the Secretary just mentioned, we discussed Afghanistan, Iran, North
Korea, and also global warming, nuclear nonproliferation and
disarmament, Myanmar, et cetera," Okada said through a translator at a
press briefing with Clinton in Honolulu January 12. “I’m not going to
delve into details, I believe, but the mere fact that these diverse
issues came up in our discussions I think is a testament to the
importance of our Japan-U.S. alliance.”

Japan’s behind the scenes diplomatic role vis a vis the U.S. and Iran
has been going on for some time and is built on several factors,
observers say. Chief among them, that Japan enjoys good relations with
both countries. Japan watchers said Iran and Japan share a view of
themselves as being highly independent, fellow anti-imperialistic
countries that have staked out their own paths.

Also valued by the parties is that Japan conducts such diplomacy with a
high degree of discretion. Indeed, two sources aware of the Japanese
role as something of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic back channel have been
reluctant for it to be reported on for fear of possibly damaging the
channel.

However, some Washington hardliners opposed to a nuclear deal with Iran
are also aware of the Japanese role, and have expressed concern that any
possible nuclear deal could derail international momentum for crippling
sanctions on Iran. “I've heard that Japan has offered the Iranians to do
the enrichment in Japan with Obama's blessing,” one Washington Iran
watcher opposed to a nuclear deal told POLITICO on background last week.
“I think the White House really wants to return to a uranium export plan
and would gladly accept this if Iran did. A massive turnout on February
11th in Iran could derail all of this and expedite the discussion of
sanctions.”

Beyond its good ties with both Washington and Iran and diplomatic
discretion, other factors elevate Japan’s role on the Iran issue. Japan
is currently a year into a two-year term as one of the 10 non-permanent
members of the UN Security Council, where key western powers are
attempting to get a fourth UN Security Council resolution passed in
coming weeks condemning Iran’s nuclear program. Particularly eager for a
resolution to be passed this month are the French, who assume the
presidency of the Security Council Monday for the month.

Japan also walked back from a military nuclear program, while having an
extensive nuclear energy program. It was also of course the only nation
ever attacked with nuclear weapons.

In addition, in November, a Japanese diplomat, Yukio Amano, succeeded
Mohamed ElBaradei to become director general of the IAEA, in effect the
top international nuclear negotiator in the world.

Over the weekend in Davos, Amano made his first public comments on the
Iran IAEA negotiations since assuming the job late last year. "Our
proposal is on the table,” Amano told journalists at the World Economic
Forum in Switzerland. “Dialogue is continuing.”

He declined to give further details.
Posted by Laura Rozen 10:33 PM
------------------------------
January 30, 2010
Panetta traveled to Israel

Israeli sources say CIA director Leon Panetta traveled to Israel this
past week. He met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense
Minister Ehud Barak, and Mossad chief Meir Dagan, one former Israeli
official said. The main subject of conversation was Iran, as well as
"relations" in general, the former official said.

A CIA spokesman said that they don't as a rule discuss the CIA
director's travel. Regional news reports said that Panetta also traveled
to Cairo for meetings with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman and
other officials.

Earlier this month, Obama National Security Advisor Jim Jones traveled
to Israel, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon,
accompanied by the NSC's Dennis Ross.

Panetta previously was reported to travel to Israel last May.
 =========================================================================
 From The Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6289593.ece
May 15, 2009
Leon Panetta's mission to stop Israel bombing Iranian nuclear plant
James Hider in Jerusalem
A pilgrim holding mementoes and rosary beads awaits the arrival of Pope
Benedict XVI for the celebration of holy mass in Nazareth

America’s spy chief was sent on a secret mission to Israel to warn its
leaders not to launch a surprise attack on Iran without notifying the US
Administration.

As Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, prepares to visit
Washington, it emerged yesterday that Leon Panetta, the head of the CIA,
went to Israel two weeks ago. He sought assurances from Mr Netanyahu and
Ehud Barak, the Defence Minister, that their hawkish new Government
would not attack Iran without alerting Washington.

Concerns have been rising that Mr Netanyahu could launch a strike on
Tehran’s atomic programme, in the same way that Israel hit Saddam
Hussein’s Osirak reactor in 1981. Israel has been preparing for such an
eventuality. It has carried out long-distance manoeuvres and is due to
hold its largest civil defence drills this summer. The country’s leaders
reportedly told Mr Panetta that they did not “intend to surprise the US
on Iran”.

Mr Netanyahu will leave for Washington this weekend. He will meet
Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, and Mr Obama, whom he will try
to convince of the need for tougher action against Iran. Mr Obama
favours trying to engage Tehran, but his efforts have been received
coolly by President Ahmadinejad.

The Israeli leader is expected to insist that the US stays focused on
Iran, rather than tackling stalled talks with the Palestinians.

Mr Netanyahu has held meetings with Arab leaders this week, including
President Mubarak of Egypt and King Abdullah of Jordan. Both Sunni
leaders share Israel’s fears of a resurgent Shia Iran.

In Aqaba, Jordan, yesterday King Abdullah told Mr Netanyahu there could
be no regional peace without a Palestinian state. So far Mr Netanyahu
has refused to commit to a two-state solution. Instead, he has talked
about developing the Palestinian economy, with Palestinians having only
limited sovereignty. That view is likely to cause confrontation with Mr
Obama.

Mr Netanyahu raised the issue of Iran during a private meeting with Pope
Benedict XVI in Nazareth yesterday. “I asked him as a moral figure to
make his voice heard loud and continuously against the declarations
coming from Iran of their intention to destroy Israel,” he said. .

“I think we found in him an attentive ear.” The Pope, who reiterated his
calls for peace yesterday, did not give an account of the meeting.

**********
Dit bericht is verzonden via de informele D66 discussielijst (D66 at nic.surfnet.nl).
Aanmelden: stuur een email naar LISTSERV at nic.surfnet.nl met in het tekstveld alleen: SUBSCRIBE D66 uwvoornaam uwachternaam
Afmelden: stuur een email naar LISTSERV at nic.surfnet.nl met in het tekstveld alleen: SIGNOFF D66
Het on-line archief is te vinden op: http://listserv.surfnet.nl/archives/d66.html
**********