World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree

[Cees Binkhorst]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

Kunnen we Balkenende hier nu al de schuld van geven, of wachten we tot het
water boven onze hoofden komt ;)

Nog waarschijnlijker is dat we allemaal eerder failliet worden verklaard,
omdat alle onroerend goed e.d. ten westen van de lijn Rozendaal, Arnhem,
Groningen waardeloos wordt.

Groet / Cees

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c
Almost nine out of 10 climate scientists do not believe political efforts
to restrict global warming to 2C will succeed, a Guardian poll reveals
today. An average rise of 4-5C by the end of this century is more likely,
they say, given soaring carbon emissions and political constraints.

Such a change would disrupt food and water supplies, exterminate thousands
of species of plants and animals and trigger massive sea level rises that
would swamp the homes of hundreds of millions of people.

The poll of those who follow global warming most closely exposes a
widening gulf between political rhetoric and scientific opinions on
climate change. While policymakers and campaigners focus on the 2C target,
86% of the experts told the survey they did not think it would be
achieved. A continued focus on an unrealistic 2C rise, which the EU
defines as dangerous, could even undermine essential efforts to adapt to
inevitable higher temperature rises in the coming decades, they warned.

The survey follows a scientific conference last month in Copenhagen, where
a series of studies were presented that suggested global warming could
strike harder and faster than realised.

The Guardian contacted all 1,756 people who registered to attend the
conference and asked for their opinions on the likely course of global
warming. Of 261 experts who responded, 200 were researchers in climate
science and related fields. The rest were drawn from industry or worked in
areas such as economics and social and political science.

The 261 respondents represented 26 countries and included dozens of senior
figures, including laboratory directors, heads of university departments
and authors of the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).

The poll asked the experts whether the 2C target could still be achieved,
and whether they thought that it would be met: 60% of respondents argued
that, in theory, it was still technically and economically possible to
meet the target, which represents an average global warming of 2C since
the industrial revolution. The world has already warmed by about 0.8C
since then, and another 0.5C or so is inevitable over coming decades given
past greenhouse gas emissions. But 39% said the 2C target was impossible.

The poll comes as UN negotiations to agree a new global treaty to regulate
carbon pollution gather pace in advance of a key meeting in Copenhagen in
December. Officials will try to agree a successor to the Kyoto protocol,
the first phase of which expires in 2012. The 2C target is unlikely to
feature in a new treaty, but most of the carbon cuts proposed for rich
countries are based on it. Bob Watson, chief scientist to Defra, told the
Guardian last year that the world needed to focus on the 2C target, but
should also prepare for a possible 4C rise.

Asked what temperature rise was most likely, 84 of the 182 specialists
(46%) who answered the question said it would reach 3-4C by the end of the
century; 47 (26%) suggested a rise of 2-3C, while a handful said 6C or
more. While 24 experts predicted a catastrophic rise of 4-5C, just 18
thought it would stay at 2C or under.

Some of those surveyed who said the 2C target would be met confessed they
did so more out of hope rather than belief. "As a mother of young children
I choose to believe this, and work hard toward it," one said.

"This optimism is not primarily due to scientific facts, but to hope,"
said another. Some said they thought geoengineering measures, such as
seeding the ocean with iron to encourage plankton growth, would help meet
the target.

Many of the experts stressed that an inability to hit the 2C target did
not mean that efforts to tackle global warming should be abandoned, but
that the emphasis is now on damage limitation.

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