Domino-effect: Luxemburg neemt voorbeeld aan Nederland

[Dr. Marc-Alexander Fluks]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

Bron:  Financial Times
Datum: 31 mei 2005
URL:   http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4e3338c4-d1f7-11d9-8c82-00000e2511c8.html


No-vote lobby gains ground in Luxembourg
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By Sarah Laitner and George Parker in Brussels

If a French rejection of Europe's constitutional treaty seemed unlikely
earlier this year, a No vote by passionately pro-Europe Luxembourg would
have been inconceivable.

But after the political shockwaves created by the overwhelming French No
vote and the expectation that the Dutch will reject the constitution on
Wednesday, even Luxembourg's endorsement is no longer certain.

While the Luxembourg Yes camp remains in the lead, opponents are gaining
ground ahead of the referendum on July 10 in the tiny Grand Duchy, which
houses many of the European Union's big institutions.

The Yes camp's lead narrowed from 59 per cent last month to 46 per cent in
May, while support for the No vote grew from 23 per cent to 32 per cent,
according to the Ilres polling group.

Rejection could cause profound changes to the country's political scene
because Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister, has threatened to quit if the
referendum is lost.

'Up until now Luxembourg was very pro-Europe and favourable towards
European integration,' says Robert Goebbels, one of the country's MEPs.
'This [change] is a surprise. It seems frustration is coming out.'

A strong showing by the No-camp or outright rejection would be another
demonstration of the disenchantment emerging towards the new, expanded
European Union in its founder member states.

It would also show that even the EU's richest country, and the biggest net
beneficiary of aid from the bloc's budget, could fall out of love with
Europe.

Luxembourg is a model example of European unity. Foreigners make up almost
40 per cent of the population and thousands of cross-border workers
commute to the landlocked country daily. But Luxembourgers are using the
campaign to reveal fears about integration and in particular unease at not
being consulted either on the bloc's eastward enlargement last year or the
possible entry of Muslim Turkey.

They are also expected to use their first referendum since 1937 to
demonstrate the fears they share with the French of a supposed Anglo-Saxon
free market takeover of the bloc.

The political establishment in the country is firmly behind the treaty,
with the No-campaign led by extreme left and right wing groups.

Mr Juncker, Christian Democrat prime minister since 1995, remains popular
among the population of 460,000 and has been lauded for the way he has
steered complex negotiations during Luxembourg's current six-month
presidency of the EU.

Commentators say that, unlike in France, rejection or a strong no-vote
would not be a sign of voters trying to give their leader a bloody nose.
'This would not be a protest against prime minister Juncker,' says Laurent
Moyse, editor of the centrist newspaper La Voix du Luxembourg.

'I am not sure for the moment people are thinking [about] his future.
They are thinking more about Luxembourg's future in Europe.' But rejection
would raise the stakes considerably for the EU's longest-serving leader,
who retains ambitions of holding high office in Brussels.

Mr Juncker is already the political 'Mr Euro' for the single currency, the
semi-permanent chair of the monthly eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance
ministers. He is also tipped to become the first full-time president of
the European Council a post that would be created if the European
constitution was ratified.

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(c) 2005 Financial Times

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