Domino-effect: Nederland neemt voorbeeld aan Frankrijk

[Dr. Marc-Alexander Fluks]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

Bron:  Financial Times
Datum: 31 mei 2005
URL:   http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e16fbe7e-d1f6-11d9-8c82-00000e2511c8.html


Dutch voters set to follow the French
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By Ian Bickerton in Amsterdam

Dutch voters on Wednesday look set to ignore the advice of the most of
their political leaders, newspapers, businesses and trades unions and join
the French in saying No to the European Union's constitutional treaty.
Opinion polls taken after the treaty's rejection by French voters on
Sunday show that the Dutch No campaign has extended its lead.

Interview-NSS, in a poll for Dutch television, found 60 per cent of voters
against the treaty, up from 56 per cent. TNS-NIPO meanwhile put the No
vote at 51 per cent against 37 per cent Yes, with 12 per cent undecided.
“Nothing is impossible, but the chance that the Netherlands votes Yes is
very small,” said pollster Maurice de Hond.

Ben Bot, Dutch foreign minister, said: “We had hoped for a neck-and-neck
race [but] ... it looks as if it is going to be a No vote.”

The gulf between public and political opinion in the Netherlands appears
to mirror the French experience, according to opinion polls which show
that fewer than a fifth of the Dutch people have confidence in their
government.

The eve of the referendum vote also carries echoes of events three years
ago in the Netherlands, when Jan Peter Balkenende was elected prime
minister. His election benefited at the time from a protest vote that
expelled the centre-left government of his predecessor, Wim Kok, which was
seen as elitist and distant.

Mr Balkenende's Christian Democrat Alliance led a government appointed
amid a national wave of angst and insecurity that had fuelled the rise of
the List Pym Fortuyn party after the murder of its founder, the populist
Pim Fortuyn. After that short-lived government fell apart, Mr Balkenende
won a second election and rebuilt his cabinet. This administration has
weathered problems, not always of its own making, including the social
turmoil caused by two murders by extremists and a deep economic recession
that forced unpopular austerity measures.

But Mr Balkenende's government now stands accused of the central charge
that ultimately brought down the Kok administration. De Telegraaf, the
Netherlands' biggest selling national newspaper, on Tuesday branded
current the government elitist. It wrote in an editorial that, like the
Kok government, Mr Balkenende's had ignored the public, in this case by
not explaining 'what it was busy with in Brussels'.
'Whatever the government decides next, it must lead its people better,'
the newspaper stated.

Mr Balkenende's CDA, the main constituent of the government coalition, did
not want a referendum, which was called for by parliament. But the
government's initial reluctance to campaign for a Yes vote with anything
more than a simple information campaign allowed No voters to make their
arguments unopposed, building what now appears an unassailable lead.

A senior European diplomat in The Hague said that, while there were
parallels with France, the issues informing the Dutch No vote were
different. 'The angst in France is to do with the Anglo-Saxon model,
globalisation and liberalisation. Here it is about social policies and
financial issues [such as the single currency],' he said.

Furthermore, Mr Balkenende's government faces an electorate that has been
emboldened by recent experience, a fact that populist politicians such as
Geert Wilders, the rightwinger who is central to the No campaign, have
been quick to capitalise upon.

Diplomats in The Hague say they are in no doubt that a slicker government
campaign across a united front might have succeeded in winning support for
the treaty.

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(c) 2005 Financial Times

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