[D66] "Alliance Defence 2025"

[René Oudeweg]

Edward Hunter Christie
@EHunterChristie
An alleged leak to the press by the German MOD -- "Alliance Defence 
2025", a hypothetical scenario of a NATO-Russia war breaking out in 2025.
The recipient claiming receipt of the scenario is the BILD newspaper, a 
tabloid that the intellectual classes like to sniff at, but that can be 
a sensible choice for a deliberate leak aimed at either shaping public 
opinion or sending a signal to hostile governments - or both.
(Deniability is higher, and the potential domestic political meltdown 
lower, than with an established news source. On that basis, and given 
current events, I believe it is highly likely that the leak is genuine.)
The alleged scenario is a political-military storyline, a "road to war" 
scenario which ends with large deployments of Russian and NATO troops 
facing off on the Alliance's eastern flank prior to a possible 
full-scale confrontation.
It uses specific dates in the near future (not always the case with 
scenarios for exercises).
Interestingly, the alleged document (not shown by BILD) is said to be 
classified only at the 'restricted' level (Verschlusssache – Nur für den 
Dienstgebrauch). That means it is judged that the contents are only 
"disadvantageous" to the national interest if released to unauthorised 
persons, but not damaging let alone dangerous.
This is what BILD says of the scenario (translation):
▶The secret Bundeswehr scenario “Alliance Defense 2025” begins in 
February 2024. Russia is starting another wave of mobilization and is 
calling up an additional 200,000 men into the army.
▶The Kremlin then begins a spring offensive - strengthened by faltering 
Western support in the direction of Kyiv - which will achieve greater 
success by June 2024 and push the Ukrainian army back little by little.
▶Russia's initially covert and later increasingly open attack on the 
West begins in July.
▶Severe cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare, mainly in the 
Baltics, are leading to ever new crises. Russia begins incitement of 
ethnic Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
▶There are clashes which, according to the scenario, Russia is using as 
an excuse to start the large-scale exercise “Zapad 2024” with 50,000 
soldiers in western Russia and Belarus from September
[Note: Russia stated in Sept. 2023 that it would not hold this exercise 
given the fighting in Ukraine]
▶But as in 2021, Russia abuses its alleged maneuvers in Belarus for a 
massive troop buildup on the border with Poland and Lithuania.
▶In October 2024, Russia moves troops and medium-range missiles to 
Kaliningrad and continues to arm its exclave while issuing false 
propaganda of an impending NATO attack. The Kremlin's secret goal: to 
conquer the Suwalki Gap - the narrow Polish-Lithuanian corridor between 
Belarus and Kaliningrad.
▶From December 2024 there would be an artificially induced “border 
conflict” and “riots with numerous deaths” in the Suwalki Gap area.
▶Just when the USA could be more or less leaderless for a few weeks 
after the possible election defeat of Joe Biden, Russia repeats the 2014 
invasion of Eastern Ukraine but on NATO soil.
▶Shortly thereafter, an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council 
takes place, in which Russia accuses the West of preparing to attack Russia.
▶Poland and the Baltic states report an increasing threat from Russia to 
the North Atlantic Council in January 2025.
▶Russia uses propaganda to turn the true threat situation into its 
opposite and to move additional troops to the Baltics and Belarus in 
March 2025.
▶In Putin's puppet state of Belarus alone, the Kremlin would now have 
two tank divisions, a mechanized infantry division and a division 
headquarters stationed - a total of more than 70,000 soldiers.
▶ In May 2025, NATO decides on “measures for credible deterrence” in 
order to forestall a Russian attack on the Suwalki Gap from the 
direction of Belarus and Kaliningrad.
▶ On Day X, NATO's Supreme Commander orders the transfer of 300,000 
soldiers to the eastern flank, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers
▶The scenario ends 30 days after Day X. Whether Russia will be deterred 
by the NATO deployment remains an open question in the exercise scenario.

Comment: the scenario contains classical elements. Much has been 
written, some of it in the public domain, about a scenario of Russian 
aggression against one or more of our Baltic state Allies. However, 
leaking this now (if that's what occurred) is interesting. Perhaps a way 
of shaking up a lethargic political leadership. Perhaps also a way of 
making the public understand what the future may be like. And last but 
not least, perhaps a signal to Moscow that Berlin is not asleep at the 
wheel.


europeanconservative.com
Leaked German Defense Document Sketches out Russian War Scenario
Tamás Orbán
5–7 minutes

A confidential document drawn up by the German Ministry of Defense (MoD) 
envisions how a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine could 
potentially develop. The hypothetical development involves Russia and 
NATO each gradually increasing troop build-up in eastern Europe until 
hundreds of thousands of troops face off against each other at the 
Suwałki Gap in June 2025—and leaves the outcome of the confrontation open.

Berlin’s exercise scenario, according to the German daily Bild, heavily 
relies on a set of assumptions that would all need to occur before 
further escalation, but each component of the chain of events is 
presented as the next logical step.

The scenario, titled “Alliance Defense 2025,” starts with Russia 
beginning a new wave of mobilizations by calling up an additional 
200,000 recruits in February 2024, who then manage to weaken the 
Ukrainian positions along the line of contact in the next spring offensive.

In July 2024, Russia would then begin covert cyber-attacks and other 
forms of hybrid warfare on the West and East Central Europe in 
particular, while inciting Russian-speaking minorities in Baltic 
countries. The political crisis in the Baltics would eventually be used 
to justify a massive military exercise (similar to the one in 2021), 
called ‘Zapad 2024’ in September, involving at least 50,000 Russian 
troops in Belarus and western Russia.

Responding to Western media and politicians’ inevitable alarm, the 
document pictures Russia in October starting to spread propaganda of an 
impending NATO attack and continuing to build up troops in Belarus as 
well as shipping medium-range missiles to its Kaliningrad enclave. It 
would then become obvious that Moscow’s ultimate goal is to occupy the 
Suwałki Gap—the Polish-Lithuanian land bridge between Belarus and 
Kaliningrad.

With everything prepared, the outline suggests, Russia would wait until 
the U.S. election to begin the second phase of its plan. Anticipating 
that a narrow defeat of President Biden and a heavily contested outcome 
would cripple the U.S. for at least a few months, Moscow could begin to 
induce artificial ‘border conflicts’ and deadly riots around the Gap in 
December 2024, to eventually repeat the 2022 invasion on NATO soil.

While Poland and the Baltic countries would report an increasing threat 
and request immediate assistance from NATO, Moscow would use their 
actions to accuse the West of planning an invasion against Russia at the 
UN Security Council’s emergency meeting in January, ordering even more 
troops in the area to ‘defend’ itself.

By March 2025, under this scenario, Russia has two tank divisions, a 
mechanized infantry division, and a deployable division headquarters 
lined up just outside of NATO borders, with over 70,000 troops in 
Belarus alone.

This would lead to a situation where, by May 2025, NATO has no other 
option but to approve “measures for credible deterrence” to forestall a 
Russian invasion of Poland and the Baltics. On “Day X,” NATO orders the 
transfer of 300,000 troops to the area, including 30,000 Bundeswehr 
soldiers. The scenario ends thirty days after “Day X,” but without 
specifying whether NATO’s deterrence strategy worked or led to an open 
war between Russia and the West.

There’s not much to suggest any of this will play out in real life, but 
the potential is there, nonetheless. We will have to wait and see 
whether the first assumption—a new wave of Russian mobilization ahead of 
a coming spring offensive—becomes a reality. So far, Moscow denies that 
it would plan to bring in any recruits besides the occasional 
volunteers, but certain signs are pointing toward the opposite.

In any case, Berlin seems to take its assessment seriously, as last 
week, it announced a military exercise with armored infantry divisions 
between April 21-26th in Poland and Lithuania, the two countries 
flanking the Suwałki Gap.

While the scenario contains no big surprise to those familiar with 
wargames, the timing of the leak led analysts to suggest that it may 
have been intentional. The document signals to Moscow that Berlin is 
paying attention and is getting ready for confrontation while showing 
Europe’s more reluctant countries that they need to take Russia 
seriously and that escalation is possible.

The leak might also be a message to the German people so that they 
understand the gravity of the situation. Recently, German Defense 
Minister Boris Pistorius warned that the country may only have 5-8 years 
to prepare for the next major conflict, hinting at the need to revisit 
compulsory military service as well. In case the Germans didn’t 
understand what he meant, the leaked document paints a pretty good picture.

The Swedish government recently had a similar idea of preparing the 
population for the worst, although Stockholm’s plan backfired 
spectacularly. Last week, panic buying ensued while teenagers and 
worried parents took to support hotlines after the government’s ominous 
social media (including TikTok) campaign went live, telling Swedes that 
“War is Coming.”

PM Ulf Kristersson’s government ended up having to apologize for scaring 
children with the campaign, saying that they meant only to warn about a 
hypothetical but plausible scenario. Perhaps that’s why Berlin chose to 
go the extra mile and leak its entire rationale instead of just running 
a similarly simple ad campaign. After all, it does want Germans to 
accept the new reality, but whether the threat is real is a different 
question.