[D66] FYI: Solar Cycle 25

[René Oudeweg]

FYI

weather.gov <https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle>


  Hello Solar Cycle 25

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, National Weather Service
4–5 minutes
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<https://www.weather.gov/images/news/201409-Solar-minimum.png>

/Solar minimum - the period when the sun is least active - as seen by 
the Solar Ultraviolet Imager aboard GOES-East on Dec. 15, 2019. We are 
now in Solar Cycle 25. Credit: NOAA./

<https://www.weather.gov/images/news/201409-NOAA-Space-Weather.jpg>

/Artist’s rendering of NOAA’s Space Weather Follow-On L-1 observatory. 
Credit: NOAA/

*Analysis determines we are in Solar Cycle 25*

September 15, 2020 - The solar minimum between Solar Cycle 24 and 25 - 
the period when the sun is least active - happened in December 2019, 
when the 13-month smoothed sunspot number fell to 1.8, according to the 
Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, co-chaired by NOAA and NASA. We are now 
in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025, the panel 
said.

Solar Cycle 24 was average in length, at 11 years, and had the 
4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar 
Cycle 1 in 1755. It was also the weakest cycle in 100 years. Solar 
maximum occurred in April 2014 with sunspots peaking at 114 for the 
solar cycle, well below average, which is 179.

Solar Cycle 24’s progression was unusual. The Sun’s Northern Hemisphere 
led the sunspot cycle, peaking over two years ahead of the Southern 
Hemisphere sunspot peak. This resulted in solar maximum having fewer 
sunspots than if the two hemispheres were in phase.

*/Solar Cycle 25/*
For the past eight months, activity on the sun has steadily increased, 
indicating we transitioned to Solar Cycle 25. Solar Cycle 25 is forecast 
to be a fairly weak cycle, 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update?fbclid=IwAR0II6o75ehEkIfRW-QP4F4w1ljXx89KsQrKdhEGeJvnIm6GviIFiEjdH34> 
the same strength as cycle 24. Solar maximum is expected in July 2025, 
with a peak of 115 sunspots.

“How quickly solar activity rises is an indicator on how strong the 
solar cycle will be,” said Doug Biesecker, Ph.D., panel co-chair and a 
solar physicist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. “Although 
we’ve seen a steady increase in sunspot activity this year, it is slow.”

The panel has high confidence that Solar Cycle 25 will break the trend 
of weakening solar activity seen over the past four cycles. “We predict 
the decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21 through 24, 
has come to an end,” said Lisa Upton, Ph.D., panel co-chair and solar 
physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “There is no indication we 
are approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

“While we are not predicting a particularly active Solar Cycle 25, 
violent eruptions from the Sun can occur at any time,” Biesecker added.

Solar cycle prediction gives a rough idea of the frequency of space 
weather <https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/space-weather-storms-from-sun> 
storms of all types, from radio blackouts 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts> to 
geomagnetic storms 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms> and solar 
radiation storms 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm>. It is used 
by many industries to gauge the potential impact of space weather in the 
coming years.

*/New satellites will provide enhanced observations of the Sun/*
In 2024, before the peak of sunspot activity in Solar Cycle 25, NOAA is 
slated to launch a new spacecraft dedicated to operational space weather 
forecasting. NOAA’s Space Weather Follow-On L-1 observatory 
<https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/noaa-readies-addition-its-space-weather-toolkit> 
will be equipped with instruments that sample the solar wind, provide 
imagery of coronal mass ejections, and monitor other extreme activity 
from the Sun in finer detail than before. NOAA’s next Geostationary 
Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-U) is also scheduled to launch 
in 2024. GOES-U will carry three solar monitoring instruments, including 
the first compact coronagraph 
<https://www.goes-r.gov/spacesegment/CCOR.html>, which will help detect 
coronal mass ejections. Enhanced observations of the Sun from these 
satellites will help improve space weather forecasting.

The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts the number of sunspots 
expected for solar maximum, along with the timing of the peak and 
minimum solar activity levels for the cycle. It is comprised of 
scientists representing NOAA, NASA, the International Space Environment 
Services, and other U.S. and international scientists.

For the latest space weather forecast, visit NOAA’s Space Weather 
Prediction Center, the nation’s authority for space weather alerts, 
watches, warnings, and advisories at https://www.spaceweather.gov/.

*Resources:*

  * Audio recording of the Solar Cycle 25 media teleconference
    <https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a013700/a013714/SolarCycle25telecon.mp3>
  * More about solar minimum
    <https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/media-primer-solar-cycle-and-space-weather>
  * An introduction to space weather and the Space Weather Prediction
    Center <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JncTCE2NWgc>
  * Solar Cycle 25 blog <https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/>
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