[D66] [JD: 120] Is covid-19 een A-ziekte bij een IFR van ~0.15% ? Nee.

[R.O.]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid?country=~NLD

De grafiek geeft voor NL momenteel een CFR van 1%.

Dat is de case fatality rate, maar we willen de IFR weten. Daar staat
dat de IFR 2% is.

Dus indien (2% < IFR <= 0.15%) dan is Covid-19 zeker geen A-ziekte.

Sars ligt bij 11%, Ebola tussen 25-90%, MERS is 34%.

Einde discussie. Alle maatregelen kunnen per direct van tafel inclusief
de massavaccinatie.



On 22-06-2021 21:23, R.O. wrote:
> https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554
> 
> 
> 
> Background
> 
> Estimates of community spread and infection fatality rate (IFR) of
> COVID-19 have varied across studies. Efforts to synthesize the evidence
> reach seemingly discrepant conclusions.
> 
> Methods
> 
> Systematic evaluations of seroprevalence studies that had no
> restrictions based on country and which estimated either total number of
> people infected and/or aggregate IFRs were identified. Information was
> extracted and compared on eligibility criteria, searches, amount of
> evidence included, corrections/adjustments of seroprevalence and death
> counts, quantitative syntheses and handling of heterogeneity, main
> estimates and global representativeness.
> Results
> 
> Six systematic evaluations were eligible. Each combined data from 10 to
> 338 studies (9-50 countries), because of different eligibility criteria.
> Two evaluations had some overt flaws in data, violations of stated
> eligibility criteria and biased eligibility criteria (eg excluding
> studies with few deaths) that consistently inflated IFR estimates.
> Perusal of quantitative synthesis methods also exhibited several
> challenges and biases. Global representativeness was low with 78%-100%
> of the evidence coming from Europe or the Americas; the two most
> problematic evaluations considered only one study from other continents.
> Allowing for these caveats, four evaluations largely agreed in their
> main final estimates for global spread of the pandemic and the other two
> evaluations would also agree after correcting overt flaws and biases.
> 
> Conclusions
> 
> All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that
> SARS-CoV-2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual
> uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of
> ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial
> differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries
> and locations.
> 
> 
> On 22-06-2021 21:18, R.O. wrote:
>> We weten inmiddels dat de IFR in een Standford University meta analyse
>> over ca. 2 miljard positief geteste personen wereldwijd, is bijgesteld
>> tot 0.15, zie LINK. Eerder bevestigde de WHO ook als dat de IFR was
>> bijgesteld tot 0,23, zie LINK.
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