[D66] [JD: 120] Is covid-19 een A-ziekte bij een IFR van ~0.15% ? Nee.

[R.O.]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554



Background

Estimates of community spread and infection fatality rate (IFR) of
COVID-19 have varied across studies. Efforts to synthesize the evidence
reach seemingly discrepant conclusions.

Methods

Systematic evaluations of seroprevalence studies that had no
restrictions based on country and which estimated either total number of
people infected and/or aggregate IFRs were identified. Information was
extracted and compared on eligibility criteria, searches, amount of
evidence included, corrections/adjustments of seroprevalence and death
counts, quantitative syntheses and handling of heterogeneity, main
estimates and global representativeness.
Results

Six systematic evaluations were eligible. Each combined data from 10 to
338 studies (9-50 countries), because of different eligibility criteria.
Two evaluations had some overt flaws in data, violations of stated
eligibility criteria and biased eligibility criteria (eg excluding
studies with few deaths) that consistently inflated IFR estimates.
Perusal of quantitative synthesis methods also exhibited several
challenges and biases. Global representativeness was low with 78%-100%
of the evidence coming from Europe or the Americas; the two most
problematic evaluations considered only one study from other continents.
Allowing for these caveats, four evaluations largely agreed in their
main final estimates for global spread of the pandemic and the other two
evaluations would also agree after correcting overt flaws and biases.

Conclusions

All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that
SARS-CoV-2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual
uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of
~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial
differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries
and locations.


On 22-06-2021 21:18, R.O. wrote:
> We weten inmiddels dat de IFR in een Standford University meta analyse
> over ca. 2 miljard positief geteste personen wereldwijd, is bijgesteld
> tot 0.15, zie LINK. Eerder bevestigde de WHO ook als dat de IFR was
> bijgesteld tot 0,23, zie LINK.