[D66] [JD: 149] Europe's flood tragedy didn't have to be this severe

Wed Jul 21 20:49:30 CEST 2021

(Ik was ongeveer 3 dagen op de hoogte voor ik besloot te evacueren op
vrijdagavond. Dat kan inderdaad beter...)

edition.cnn.com
<https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/19/opinions/europe-flood-climate-change-evacuations-speight/index.html>

  Opinion: Europe's flood tragedy didn't have to be this severe

Opinion by Linda Speight
8-10 minutes
------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Linda Speight
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttp*3A*2F*2Fwww.reading.ac.uk*2Fgeographyandenvironmentalscience*2FAbout*2FStaff*2Fl-j-speight.aspx*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C83193f514ddb4f24af8408d949ff8bfd*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637622184336854820*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DHGM39oMeWIJ6PRuNnAbvLCY3qPqJD92bgqQ8mA234Pg*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!xmo4CJylbbcK9v4CSsOckrGc7G5oHZjf4-hdoqxVJNWIN47jGQBIijxDrAmIs_7L6A64*24*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7Cfd625698b5fe4112b6b808d94a28ad14*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637622360845252753*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3Deji4qLroND0TkuU4rmWJaJqm8X*2Fyr9lYAR8yvHA5TbE*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKiolJSoqKioqKioqKioqKiUlKiUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!0dS68Wa3mv02GD_LL2jTnM4_-qhteuKrK3Fvcs3zbBJ-t_0teEsG7q7grZk7fOBKliY2*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C1827eed82c5045f4f13508d94a33cb3f*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637622408616864893*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=HDqHh2Hzr5380uTwYT9ooQipJ58GZPRvWXuZiDj3VTE*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqJSUqKioqKioqKioqKiolJSoqJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!yJARbD8P5LNeR3eBj5hhW6B7GYc3XXaqGlIrs5HH-8HXWrcocOQHdY-hATPft_dnO56S$>
(@Linda_sp8) <https://twitter.com/Linda_sp8> is a hydrometeorologist at
the University of Reading. Her research seeks to inform the development
of effective flood forecast and warning systems by improving integration
between science and end users. The views expressed here are her own.
Read more opinion <https://www.cnn.com/opinions>at CNN. "

(CNN)The deaths of at least 189 people and the hundreds more unaccounted
for in western Europe following the catastrophic flooding
<https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/18/europe/western-europe-floods-sunday-intl/index.html>last
week is a truly devastating event. The scenes of walls ripped out of
houses, cars floating down streets and people in tears surveying the
remains of their possessions serve as a stark reminder of the power of
water.

Linda Speight

What is most upsetting though, is that the scale of this event came as a
surprise
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/world/europe/germany-floods-climate-change.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share>to
some governments and parts of the public. It shouldn't have been like
that. Scientists know that climate change is increasing the frequency of
extreme weather events. We see evidence of that every day with heat
waves, wildfires,
<https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/04/world/canada-us-heatwave-northern-hemisphere-climate-change-cmd-intl/index.html>
droughts and storms filling the news, and flooding is no exception. It
was not unfathomable that a flood event of this scale and magnitude
would occur in Europe.

Luckily, we are not powerless against floods, thanks to recent
scientific and technological advances, and we have excellent forecasting
capabilities
<https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020RG000704>.
This means we do not have to wait until the rain starts falling to take
action.

The experiences in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands illustrate what
emergency planners have known for a long time: It is easier, cheaper and
more effective to take action in advance of a flood occurring. The heavy
rainfall in Germany was forecast by the weather services. Meteorologists
knew what was coming several days in advance
<https://twitter.com/meteomabe/status/1415695340406296581> and issued
weather warnings. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eFuBCItLbQ>

Early indications
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Femergency.copernicus.eu*2Fmapping*2Fems*2Fcopernicus-emergency-management-service-forecasts-warns-and-monitors-devastating-floods-germany*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477183006*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DeT0gQSe3ZDw*2BvmXnNpCw2mj3DWoeJJ44OKIODwgGg98*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNybhk6juU*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178336939958*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=BKMo7sWp3svfYc5tAoo4i*2BFJ8stdHgsYTfc0OF0kXWk*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKiUlKioqKioqKioqKioqJSUqKiUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzVYgjwht$>of
serious flooding were given by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS
<https://www.efas.eu/en>, part of the Copernicus Emergency Management
Service) and messages were sent to relevant organizations in each of the
affected countries. One of the difficulties is that the response system
across Europe is fragmented
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Fwww.bbc.co.uk*2Fnews*2Fworld-europe-57867773__*3B!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!0dS68Wa3mv02GD_LL2jTnM4_-qhteuKrK3Fvcs3zbBJ-t_0teEsG7q7grZk7fGYOiIX_*24*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C1827eed82c5045f4f13508d94a33cb3f*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637622408616934587*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DKjPeYI7Muaz2fXWd3iXi*2FKb*2B*2BrzbMERjEEwPDpeYSNU*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!yJARbD8P5LNeR3eBj5hhW6B7GYc3XXaqGlIrs5HH-8HXWrcocOQHdY-hATPft-7pRs81*24*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477197939*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3D1zTSxUYCVWjDZGxBZgwqla3PBQpKQIrfv*2FF*2B77hiIBk*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKioqKioqJSUqKioqKioqKioqKiolJSoqKiolJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNybVMDhbp*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178336959873*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=I5WPi*2BpaddNo1LuQChwbTq3y*2B9fLCTZKQmJCQVZODvs*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKiUlKioqKioqKioqKioqJSUqKiolJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzVLW87aV$>,
with organizations having different responsibilities across different
countries. Nevertheless, there should have been time to prepare, yet the
reality was that in some regions people were not evacuated until there
was alreadywater in their houses
<https://theconversation.com/report-from-europes-flood-zone-researcher-calls-out-early-warning-system-gridlock-amid-shocking-loss-of-life-164648?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton>.

In the initial aftermath of the event, a spokesperson for Germany's
meteorological service, the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), said
<https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-floods-dozens-dead-despite-early-warnings/>
it had passed the flood warnings to local authorities and they, not
federal agencies, were responsible for initiating evacuations or other
on-site measures. Despite the scientific advances, there is clearly
still a need to improve how flood warnings are communicated and to
establish who isresponsible for taking action
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Fwww.theguardian.com*2Fworld*2F2021*2Fjul*2F19*2Fgerman-villages-could-be-left-with-no-drinking-water-after-floods__*3B!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNyaMw8dKN*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178336875242*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=x4PuUyEXdR3vFkZgRvhWNRlikUvP0RJsIQK*2Bj87VXSs*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzcRfsQ39$>
and alerting the public
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Fedition.cnn.com*2F2021*2F07*2F19*2Fworld*2Fnetherlands-germany-flood-defense-warning-system-intl-cmd*2Findex.html&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178336880220*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=9EB*2Fob*2F1hS8*2FdXJJZnbQYCgTM1EUz8DYDo2*2BnxOiPQc*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzVyyA2OZ$>.

This is not to say only these governments are to blame. This event could
have occurred anywhere, and I suspect the warning system in other
countries would have been found to have similar weaknesses.
Unfortunately, it often takes a massive event to highlight the need for
change.

The 'wet bulb' warning
<https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/17/opinions/deadly-heat-waves-wet-bulb-climate-change-ki-moon-verkooijen/index.html>

So, what went wrong? Well, any flood warning system is only as good as
its weakest link. If action is not taken on the basis of the warnings,
then having excellent forecasts does not help anyone. There are
potentially three main reasons why action was inadequate in this case.
Either the message didn't get to the right people, it was the wrong
message, or the message got through but no one believed it. In reality
it was probably a mixture of all three.

Events like this one are extreme and rare. They (usually) do not happen
more than once in a lifetime, so even if you live close to a river, if
you have not been flooded before it is difficult to appreciate the
potential devastation. Flood warnings need to bridge this awareness gap
by highlighting the severity of the risk.

One limitation is that warnings are too often focused solely on what the
weather will be. A warning of 150mm (6 inches) of rainfall over two days
doesn't mean a lot to most people. What does mean something is a warning
that gives details of what the weather will do, for example that "river
levels will rise rapidly causing widespread flooding. Damage to roads
and property is expected." This is often known as an impact-based
forecasting.
<https://www.climatecentre.org/488/new-red-cross-red-crescent-uk-met-office-guide-to-a-impact-based-forecastinga-for-early-humanitarian-action/>

Having been responsible for issuing and developing flood forecasts and
warnings
<https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12281>myself and
working closely with the organizations that use those warnings, both in
a national context when working for the Scottish Environment Protection
Agency
<https://www.sepa.org.uk/environment/water/flooding/forecasting-flooding/>
and through the University of Reading's work
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttp*3A*2F*2Fblogs.reading.ac.uk*2Ffathum*2F*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477237761*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DkELXmdZEpqXvHrXH4aDEZr2rgnzrIMF8eUnM8BXWw9M*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNyXXpRDPK*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178337004676*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=U0*2BRultuD2hCYCPgah8bbRW7g8lNz*2BMNh*2Bc0h6eI72c*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqJSUqKioqKioqKioqKiolJSolJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzQjDHaG8$>
to support theinternational humanitarian response
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Fwww.sciencedirect.com*2Fscience*2Farticle*2Fpii*2FS2212420920313133*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477242738*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DPsxWwe3XlbNo9*2B7XBm4GtZ7mlDuYyc5ipsNyPvFX1ho*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNyRfThDcX*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178337009653*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=bIOcoqNre3Xu8m7OC2sWwW*2FPAKlwiUztqcA*2B3v92jFc*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKiolJSoqKioqKioqKioqKiUlKiolJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzQBQvs7Q$>
to major cyclones, I know firsthand that when big events such as this
are seen in the forecast, the initial thought can be "surely that can't
be right."

Organizations do not want to get it wrong. In Italy, six scientists and
a government official were convicted of manslaughter
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-earthquake-court/italian-scientists-convicted-over-earthquake-warning-idUSBRE89L13V20121022>
and sentenced to six-year prison terms for underestimating the threat in
a 2009 earthquake warning. The scientists
<https://www.nature.com/articles/515171a> were later exonerated and the
official's sentence reduced.

America's West is drying out. Here's what we can do about it
<https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/16/opinions/droughts-western-us-update-policies-frank/index.html>

There is also valid concern that if warnings are issued too often and no
impacts occur, they will start to be ignored. All of this can lead to a
tendency to wait until the next forecast update before issuing warnings,
which reduces the time available to take action.

One question I've been asked a lot this week is what action should have
been taken. In this case, there should have been earlier evacuations.
There was no way to protect people against that amount of water and the
priority should have been to get everyone out of harm's way. In some
regions this did happen, but not everywhere. For smaller events, the
response might be to install temporary flood defenses, to bring in extra
staff to deal with an expected rise in call-outs, and to take personal
responsibility for moving your valuables and pets to a safe place.

Evacuating people is a difficult decision. It is costly and there is a
risk that some people (particularly the elderly and vulnerable) will die
while being evacuated. To take that decision requires confidence in the
forecast. My research and the work of many others (for example through
the World Meteorological Organization HIWeather program
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttp*3A*2F*2Fwww.hiweather.net*2F*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477257681*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DjqOV*2BmL0ztd7*2BkKPMqCZzw4j1uSuU*2F*2Bu8gB*2FcM6vmRo*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNyeZnPKg9*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178337029553*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=A8KpJgqs4XzXSyAhWX*2Bz1DXZO7zBbky*2F*2BPmLBCYfOAs*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKiolJSoqKioqKioqKioqKiUlKioqKioqJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzTBP8bu8$>)
show that one way to build this confidence is to make sure that everyone
involved in the forecasting chain, from weather forecasters,
hydrologists, decision makers and local communities, are involved in the
design of the flood warning system from the start.

Those conversations should happen in "peace time" so that everyone
understands each other's responsibilities during an event. Furthermore,
the strengths and limitations of the forecasting models can be openly
discussed. It is a process that is increasingly being
calledco-production.
<https://futureclimateafrica.org/coproduction-manual/> This integrated
approach means that decisions can be made in advance to balance the
risks, rather than in the heat of the moment.

An effective flood warning system alone will not reduce all impacts from
flooding. Flood defenses are essential to protect many urban areas, but
it is not practical to build them everywhere. We should be building more
resilient communities with space for water alongside people and
properties that can quickly be dried out and lived in again after
floods. We should also be raising awareness among the public about the
current and increasing risk of flooding. Flood warnings are, however, an
important part of an integrated flood risk management plan. By making
sure that the right people have the right information at the right time,
lives can be saved.

It is unfortunate that it often takes a major event to act as a catalyst
for change, but the experience in Europe has opened up a valuable
opportunity for the international disaster management community to
reflect on how prepared we really are for more frequent extreme events.
There are many lessons to learn that I hope will improve our
preparedness for floods and other disasters, both now and in the future.

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