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<div class="header reader-header reader-show-element">(Ik was
ongeveer 3 dagen op de hoogte voor ik besloot te evacueren op
vrijdagavond. Dat kan inderdaad beter...)<br>
</div>
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<div class="header reader-header reader-show-element"><a
class="domain reader-domain"
href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/19/opinions/europe-flood-climate-change-evacuations-speight/index.html">edition.cnn.com</a>
<h1 class="reader-title">Opinion: Europe's flood tragedy didn't
have to be this severe</h1>
<div class="credits reader-credits">Opinion by Linda Speight</div>
<div class="meta-data">
<div class="reader-estimated-time" dir="ltr">8-10 minutes</div>
</div>
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<p><q><a
href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttp*3A*2F*2Fwww.reading.ac.uk*2Fgeographyandenvironmentalscience*2FAbout*2FStaff*2Fl-j-speight.aspx*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C83193f514ddb4f24af8408d949ff8bfd*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637622184336854820*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DHGM39oMeWIJ6PRuNnAbvLCY3qPqJD92bgqQ8mA234Pg*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!xmo4CJylbbcK9v4CSsOckrGc7G5oHZjf4-hdoqxVJNWIN47jGQBIijxDrAmIs_7L6A64*24*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7Cfd625698b5fe4112b6b808d94a28ad14*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637622360845252753*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3Deji4qLroND0TkuU4rmWJaJqm8X*2Fyr9lYAR8yvHA5TbE*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKiolJSoqKioqKioqKioqKiUlKiUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!0dS68Wa3mv02GD_LL2jTnM4_-qhteuKrK3Fvcs3zbBJ-t_0teEsG7q7grZk7fOBKliY2*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C1827eed82c5045f4f13508d94a33cb3f*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637622408616864893*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=HDqHh2Hzr5380uTwYT9ooQipJ58GZPRvWXuZiDj3VTE*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqJSUqKioqKioqKioqKiolJSoqJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!yJARbD8P5LNeR3eBj5hhW6B7GYc3XXaqGlIrs5HH-8HXWrcocOQHdY-hATPft_dnO56S$"
target="_blank">Linda Speight</a> (<a
href="https://twitter.com/Linda_sp8"
target="_blank">@Linda_sp8)</a> is a
hydrometeorologist at the University of Reading. Her
research seeks to inform the development of
effective flood forecast and warning systems by
improving integration between science and end users.
The views expressed here are her own. Read <a
href="https://www.cnn.com/opinions"
target="_blank">more opinion </a>at CNN. </q></p>
<p
data-paragraph-id="paragraph_B77937D6-E732-FDB5-48A7-C006FC26D1B5"><cite>
(CNN)</cite>The deaths of at least 189 people and
the hundreds more unaccounted for in western Europe
following the <a
href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/18/europe/western-europe-floods-sunday-intl/index.html"
target="_blank">catastrophic flooding </a>last week
is a truly devastating event. The scenes of walls
ripped out of houses, cars floating down streets and
people in tears surveying the remains of their
possessions serve as a stark reminder of the power of
water. </p>
<div>
<p><img alt="Linda Speight"
data-src-mini="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210719161319-linda-speight-hydrometeorologist-small-169.jpg"
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</div>
<p>What is most upsetting though, is that the scale of
this event <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/world/europe/germany-floods-climate-change.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share"
target="_blank">came as a surprise </a>to some
governments and parts of the public. It shouldn't have
been like that. Scientists know that climate change is
increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. We
see evidence of that every day with <a
href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/04/world/canada-us-heatwave-northern-hemisphere-climate-change-cmd-intl/index.html"
target="_blank">heat waves, wildfires,</a> droughts
and storms filling the news, and flooding is no
exception. It was not unfathomable that a flood event
of this scale and magnitude would occur in Europe.</p>
<p>Luckily, we are not powerless against floods, thanks
to recent scientific and technological advances, and
we have excellent <a
href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020RG000704"
target="_blank">forecasting capabilities</a>. This
means we do not have to wait until the rain starts
falling to take action.</p>
<p>The experiences in Germany, Belgium and the
Netherlands illustrate what emergency planners have
known for a long time: It is easier, cheaper and more
effective to take action in advance of a flood
occurring. The heavy rainfall in Germany was forecast
by the weather services. Meteorologists knew what was
coming <a
href="https://twitter.com/meteomabe/status/1415695340406296581"
target="_blank">several days in advance</a> and
issued <a
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eFuBCItLbQ"
target="_blank">weather warnings.</a></p>
<p><a
href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Femergency.copernicus.eu*2Fmapping*2Fems*2Fcopernicus-emergency-management-service-forecasts-warns-and-monitors-devastating-floods-germany*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477183006*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DeT0gQSe3ZDw*2BvmXnNpCw2mj3DWoeJJ44OKIODwgGg98*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNybhk6juU*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178336939958*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=BKMo7sWp3svfYc5tAoo4i*2BFJ8stdHgsYTfc0OF0kXWk*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKiUlKioqKioqKioqKioqJSUqKiUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzVYgjwht$"
target="_blank">Early indications </a>of serious
flooding were given by the European Flood Awareness
System (<a href="https://www.efas.eu/en"
target="_blank">EFAS</a>, part of the Copernicus
Emergency Management Service) and messages were sent
to relevant organizations in each of the affected
countries. One of the difficulties is that the
response system across Europe <a
href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Fwww.bbc.co.uk*2Fnews*2Fworld-europe-57867773__*3B!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!0dS68Wa3mv02GD_LL2jTnM4_-qhteuKrK3Fvcs3zbBJ-t_0teEsG7q7grZk7fGYOiIX_*24*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C1827eed82c5045f4f13508d94a33cb3f*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637622408616934587*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DKjPeYI7Muaz2fXWd3iXi*2FKb*2B*2BrzbMERjEEwPDpeYSNU*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!yJARbD8P5LNeR3eBj5hhW6B7GYc3XXaqGlIrs5HH-8HXWrcocOQHdY-hATPft-7pRs81*24*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477197939*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3D1zTSxUYCVWjDZGxBZgwqla3PBQpKQIrfv*2FF*2B77hiIBk*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKioqKioqJSUqKioqKioqKioqKiolJSoqKiolJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNybVMDhbp*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178336959873*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=I5WPi*2BpaddNo1LuQChwbTq3y*2B9fLCTZKQmJCQVZODvs*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKioqKiUlKioqKioqKioqKioqJSUqKiolJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzVLW87aV$"
target="_blank">is fragmented</a>, with
organizations having different responsibilities across
different countries. Nevertheless, there should have
been time to prepare, yet the reality was that in some
regions people were not evacuated until there was
already<a
href="https://theconversation.com/report-from-europes-flood-zone-researcher-calls-out-early-warning-system-gridlock-amid-shocking-loss-of-life-164648?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton"
target="_blank"> water in their houses</a>.</p>
<div>
<p>In the initial aftermath of the event, a
spokesperson for Germany's meteorological service,
the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), <a
href="https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-floods-dozens-dead-despite-early-warnings/"
target="_blank">said</a> it had passed the flood
warnings to local authorities and they, not federal
agencies, were responsible for initiating
evacuations or other on-site measures. Despite the
scientific advances, there is clearly still a need
to improve how flood warnings are communicated and
to establish who is<a
href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Fwww.theguardian.com*2Fworld*2F2021*2Fjul*2F19*2Fgerman-villages-could-be-left-with-no-drinking-water-after-floods__*3B!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNyaMw8dKN*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178336875242*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=x4PuUyEXdR3vFkZgRvhWNRlikUvP0RJsIQK*2Bj87VXSs*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzcRfsQ39$"
target="_blank"> responsible for taking action</a>
and <a
href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Fedition.cnn.com*2F2021*2F07*2F19*2Fworld*2Fnetherlands-germany-flood-defense-warning-system-intl-cmd*2Findex.html&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178336880220*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=9EB*2Fob*2F1hS8*2FdXJJZnbQYCgTM1EUz8DYDo2*2BnxOiPQc*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzVyyA2OZ$"
target="_blank">alerting the public</a>.</p>
<p>This is not to say only these governments are to
blame. This event could have occurred anywhere, and
I suspect the warning system in other countries
would have been found to have similar weaknesses.
Unfortunately, it often takes a massive event to
highlight the need for change.</p>
<div><a
href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/17/opinions/deadly-heat-waves-wet-bulb-climate-change-ki-moon-verkooijen/index.html"><img
alt="The 'wet bulb' warning"
data-src-mini="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210701164054-01-heatwave-climate-change-northern-hemisphere-small-169.jpg"
data-src-xsmall="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210701164054-01-heatwave-climate-change-northern-hemisphere-medium-plus-169.jpg"
data-src-small="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210701164054-01-heatwave-climate-change-northern-hemisphere-large-169.jpg"
data-src-medium="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210701164054-01-heatwave-climate-change-northern-hemisphere-exlarge-169.jpg"
data-src-large="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210701164054-01-heatwave-climate-change-northern-hemisphere-super-169.jpg"
data-src-full16x9="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210701164054-01-heatwave-climate-change-northern-hemisphere-full-169.jpg"
data-src-mini1x1="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210701164054-01-heatwave-climate-change-northern-hemisphere-small-11.jpg"
data-demand-load="not-loaded" data-eq-pts="mini:
0, xsmall: 221, small: 308, medium: 461, large:
781"
src="https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210701164054-01-heatwave-climate-change-northern-hemisphere-small-11.jpg"></a></div>
<p>So, what went wrong? Well, any flood warning system
is only as good as its weakest link. If action is
not taken on the basis of the warnings, then having
excellent forecasts does not help anyone. There are
potentially three main reasons why action was
inadequate in this case. Either the message didn't
get to the right people, it was the wrong message,
or the message got through but no one believed it.
In reality it was probably a mixture of all three.</p>
<p>Events like this one are extreme and rare. They
(usually) do not happen more than once in a
lifetime, so even if you live close to a river, if
you have not been flooded before it is difficult to
appreciate the potential devastation. Flood warnings
need to bridge this awareness gap by highlighting
the severity of the risk.</p>
<p>One limitation is that warnings are too often
focused solely on what the weather will be. A
warning of 150mm (6 inches) of rainfall over two
days doesn't mean a lot to most people. What does
mean something is a warning that gives details of
what the weather will do, for example that "river
levels will rise rapidly causing widespread
flooding. Damage to roads and property is expected."
This is often known as an <a
href="https://www.climatecentre.org/488/new-red-cross-red-crescent-uk-met-office-guide-to-a-impact-based-forecastinga-for-early-humanitarian-action/"
target="_blank">impact-based forecasting.</a></p>
<div
data-paragraph-id="paragraph_672C7D5A-8DD8-9F10-3DBC-C006FC444876">
<p>Having been responsible for issuing and
developing flood <a
href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12281"
target="_blank">forecasts and warnings </a>myself
and working closely with the organizations that
use those warnings, both in a national context
when working for the <a
href="https://www.sepa.org.uk/environment/water/flooding/forecasting-flooding/"
target="_blank">Scottish Environment Protection
Agency</a> and through the <a
href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttp*3A*2F*2Fblogs.reading.ac.uk*2Ffathum*2F*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477237761*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DkELXmdZEpqXvHrXH4aDEZr2rgnzrIMF8eUnM8BXWw9M*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNyXXpRDPK*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178337004676*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=U0*2BRultuD2hCYCPgah8bbRW7g8lNz*2BMNh*2Bc0h6eI72c*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqJSUqKioqKioqKioqKiolJSolJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzQjDHaG8$"
target="_blank">University of Reading's work</a>
to support the<a
href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttps*3A*2F*2Fwww.sciencedirect.com*2Fscience*2Farticle*2Fpii*2FS2212420920313133*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477242738*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DPsxWwe3XlbNo9*2B7XBm4GtZ7mlDuYyc5ipsNyPvFX1ho*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNyRfThDcX*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178337009653*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=bIOcoqNre3Xu8m7OC2sWwW*2FPAKlwiUztqcA*2B3v92jFc*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKioqKiolJSoqKioqKioqKioqKiUlKiolJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUl!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzQBQvs7Q$"
target="_blank"> international humanitarian
response</a> to major cyclones, I know firsthand
that when big events such as this are seen in the
forecast, the initial thought can be "surely that
can't be right."</p>
</div>
<p>Organizations do not want to get it wrong. In
Italy, six scientists and a government official were
<a
href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-earthquake-court/italian-scientists-convicted-over-earthquake-warning-idUSBRE89L13V20121022"
target="_blank">convicted of manslaughter</a> and
sentenced to six-year prison terms for
underestimating the threat in a 2009 earthquake
warning. <a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/515171a"
target="_blank">The scientists</a> were later
exonerated and the official's sentence reduced.</p>
<div><a
href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/16/opinions/droughts-western-us-update-policies-frank/index.html"><img
alt="America's West is drying out. Here's what
we can do about it"
data-src-mini="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210715163547-05-great-salt-lake-210430-small-169.jpg"
data-src-xsmall="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210715163547-05-great-salt-lake-210430-medium-plus-169.jpg"
data-src-small="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210715163547-05-great-salt-lake-210430-large-169.jpg"
data-src-medium="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210715163547-05-great-salt-lake-210430-exlarge-169.jpg"
data-src-large="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210715163547-05-great-salt-lake-210430-super-169.jpg"
data-src-full16x9="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210715163547-05-great-salt-lake-210430-full-169.jpg"
data-src-mini1x1="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210715163547-05-great-salt-lake-210430-small-11.jpg"
data-demand-load="not-loaded" data-eq-pts="mini:
0, xsmall: 221, small: 308, medium: 461, large:
781"
src="https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210715163547-05-great-salt-lake-210430-small-11.jpg"></a></div>
<p>There is also valid concern that if warnings are
issued too often and no impacts occur, they will
start to be ignored. All of this can lead to a
tendency to wait until the next forecast update
before issuing warnings, which reduces the time
available to take action.</p>
<p>One question I've been asked a lot this week is
what action should have been taken. In this case,
there should have been earlier evacuations. There
was no way to protect people against that amount of
water and the priority should have been to get
everyone out of harm's way. In some regions this did
happen, but not everywhere. For smaller events, the
response might be to install temporary flood
defenses, to bring in extra staff to deal with an
expected rise in call-outs, and to take personal
responsibility for moving your valuables and pets to
a safe place.</p>
<p>Evacuating people is a difficult decision. It is
costly and there is a risk that some people
(particularly the elderly and vulnerable) will die
while being evacuated. To take that decision
requires confidence in the forecast. My research and
the work of many others (for example through the
World Meteorological Organization <a
href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https*3A*2F*2Furldefense.com*2Fv3*2F__https*3A*2Feur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com*2F*3Furl*3Dhttp*3A*2F*2Fwww.hiweather.net*2F*26data*3D04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C5275cf812c30473dadd508d94ad82386*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623114477257681*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000*26sdata*3DjqOV*2BmL0ztd7*2BkKPMqCZzw4j1uSuU*2F*2Bu8gB*2FcM6vmRo*3D*26reserved*3D0__*3BJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJQ!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!wU-KR6oKuXcr4HIsftUfzGI0CCMiARA0J69jYyNwtrvCEInZzTVwerxdKbdNyeZnPKg9*24&data=04*7C01*7Cl.j.speight*40reading.ac.uk*7C58a71b550bca4964398f08d94ae70183*7C4ffa3bc4ecfc48c09080f5e43ff90e5f*7C0*7C0*7C637623178337029553*7CUnknown*7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0*3D*7C1000&sdata=A8KpJgqs4XzXSyAhWX*2Bz1DXZO7zBbky*2F*2BPmLBCYfOAs*3D&reserved=0__;JSUlJSUlJSUlJSoqKiolJSoqKioqKioqKioqKiUlKioqKioqJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSUlJSU!!AQdq3sQhfUj4q8uUguY!1VU38Z0Xph6nFKfQEJQHW2COPYDIcG1Jjrl9Y9ex1AXXM58jZuuglcUfeK7KzTBP8bu8$"
target="_blank">HIWeather program</a>) show that
one way to build this confidence is to make sure
that everyone involved in the forecasting chain,
from weather forecasters, hydrologists, decision
makers and local communities, are involved in the
design of the flood warning system from the start.</p>
<p>Those conversations should happen in "peace time"
so that everyone understands each other's
responsibilities during an event. Furthermore, the
strengths and limitations of the forecasting models
can be openly discussed. It is a process that is
increasingly being called<a
href="https://futureclimateafrica.org/coproduction-manual/"
target="_blank"> co-production.</a> This
integrated approach means that decisions can be made
in advance to balance the risks, rather than in the
heat of the moment. </p>
<p>An effective flood warning system alone will not
reduce all impacts from flooding. Flood defenses are
essential to protect many urban areas, but it is not
practical to build them everywhere. We should be
building more resilient communities with space for
water alongside people and properties that can
quickly be dried out and lived in again after
floods. We should also be raising awareness among
the public about the current and increasing risk of
flooding. Flood warnings are, however, an important
part of an integrated flood risk management plan. By
making sure that the right people have the right
information at the right time, lives can be saved.</p>
<p>It is unfortunate that it often takes a major event
to act as a catalyst for change, but the experience
in Europe has opened up a valuable opportunity for
the international disaster management community to
reflect on how prepared we really are for more
frequent extreme events. There are many lessons to
learn that I hope will improve our preparedness for
floods and other disasters, both now and in the
future.</p>
</div>
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