[D66] [JD: 172] Why the ongoing mass vaccination experiment drives a rapid evolutionary response of SARS-CoV-2

[R.O.]

https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/why-the-ongoing-mass-vaccination-experiment-drives-a-rapid-evolutionary-response-of-sars-cov-2

  *
      o Jun 21
      o

      o 33 min read


  Why the ongoing mass vaccination experiment drives a rapid
  evolutionary response of SARS-CoV-2

_Critical opinion article_:

/The naked scientific truth on why the ongoing mass vaccination
experiment drives a rapid evolutionary response of SARS-CoV-2 /


The ongoing denial by WHO, public health agencies and governments of
science-based evidence on how to mitigate the already disastrous global
and individual consequences of this pandemic are beyond mind-blowing.
Whereas a number of medical doctors are now doing the utmost to make
highly successful early multidrug treatment broadly accessible, I am
contributing my part on analyzing the epidemiologic and health
consequences of the ongoing mass vaccination campaigns and sharing - in
all transparency - my insights with the broader public. From the
critical opinion article below, it becomes already obvious that several
scientists who are studying the evolutionary biology and genetic/
molecular epidemiology of this pandemic know too well that this pandemic
is not over at all and that the global health risk posed by variants is
very substantial. So, why do they keep silent?

I realize that the scientific language is not easily accessible to
laymen. I hope the way I structured the article will, however, help them
to grasp the key message.

[...]



*Summary*

AsSars-CoV-2enteredahighlysusceptiblehumanpopulation,ithasinitiallybeenspreadingrapidlyandinanuncontrollableway.ThisalreadyexplainswhySars-CoV-2hasbeenevolvingratherslowlywithnosubstantialselectionoffitness-enhancingmutationsoccurringoverthefirst10monthsofthepandemic(i.e.,betweenDecember2019andOctober2020).Moreinfectious‘variantsofconcern’(VoCs,i.e.,alpha[B.1.1.7],beta[B.1.351],gamma[P.1])startedtoappearasoflate2020andledtoasteepincreaseincasesworldwide.



MolecularepidemiologistshaveobservedthatmutationswithintheSars-CoV-2spike(S)proteinoftheseemerging,moreinfectiouslineagesareconvergingtothesamegeneticsites,aphenomenonthatcoincidedwithamajorevolutionaryshiftinthelandscapeofnaturallyselectedSars-CoV-2mutations(1).



Significantconvergentevolution(*)ofmoreinfectiouscirculatingSars-CoV-2variantsisnotaneutral,host-independentevolutionaryphenomenonthatmerelyresultsfromincreasedviralreplicationandtransmissionbutisstronglysuggestiveofnaturalselectionandadaptationfollowingadramaticshiftinthehost(ile)environmentthevirusisexposedto(1).



MolecularepidemiologistsfullyacknowledgethatthepandemiciscurrentlyevolvingSars-CoV-2variantsthat“/could////be////a////considerably////bigger////problem////for////us////than////any////variants////that////we////currently////know////in////that////they////might////have////any////combinations////of////increased////transmissibility,////altered////virulence////and/or////increased////capacity////to////escape////population////immunity/”(1).Thisistosaythatphylogenetics-basednaturalselectionanalysisoncirculatingSars-CoV-2lineagesstronglysuggeststhatviralvariantsresistanttospike(S)-basedCovid-19vaccinesarecurrentlyexpandinginprevalenceandhighlysuspiciousofcausingfutureepidemicsurgesglobally.


DeploymentofcurrentCovid-19vaccinesinmassvaccinationcampaignscombinedwiththeongoingwidespreadcirculationofSars-CoV-2canonlyincreaseimmuneselectivepressureonSars-CoV-2spikeproteinandhence,furtherdriveitsadaptiveevolutiontocircumventvaccine-inducedhumoralimmunity.Inthisregard,theexpectationofanincreasingnumberofvaccinologistsmatchesthecurrentobservationmadebygenomicepidemiologistsinthatSprotein-directedimmuneescapevariantsarehighlylikelytofurtherspreadandexpeditetheoccurrenceofviralresistancetothecurrentlydeployedandfuture(so-called‘2ndgeneration’)Covid-19vaccines.



Tomonitorthecirculationofhazardousviralvariantsinthepopulationandtobeabletoprovideunequivocalproofoftheimmuneselectionpressureexertedbymassvaccinationcampaignsandtheharmfulconsequencesthereof,thereisanurgentneedforconductingrepresentativeviralsamplingonvaccinees,includingthosewhoarehealthyoronlysubjecttomilddisease,andtogeneticallycharacterizethevariantstheysheduponexposuretoSars-CoV-2.



_Conductingamassvaccinationexperimentataglobalscalewithoutunderstandingthemechanismsunderlyingviralescapefromvaccine-mediatedselectionpressureisnotonlyacolossalscientificblunderbut,firstandforemost,completelyirresponsiblefromtheperspectiveofindividualandpublichealthethics.
_

Intheabsenceofvaccinescapableofinducingsterilizingimmunity,earlymultidrugtreatmentasproposedbyProf.Dr.P.McCulloughandothers(_https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33387997/_
<https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33387997/>_),_togetherwithglobalchemoprophylaxisusinghighlyefficientantiviraldrugs,willbekeytosavelives,reducethehospitalizationburdenanddramaticallydiminishtransmissionofhighlyinfectiousorneutralizingantibody(nAb)-resistantescapevariants.



(*) Convergent evolution relates to the independent occurrence of one or
more mutations that are shared in common across several viral variants


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