[D66] ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate scientists

[R.O.]

https://voiceofaction.org/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/


  ‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’: top climate
  scientists

By
ASHER MOSES
voiceofaction.org
19 min
View Original 
<https://getpocket.com/redirect?url=https%3A%2F%2Fvoiceofaction.org%2Fcollapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists%2F>

Australia’s top climate scientist says “we are already deep into the 
trajectory towards collapse” of civilisation, which may now be 
inevitable because 9 of the 15 known global climate tipping points that 
regulate the state of the planet have been activated.

Australian National University emeritus professor Will Steffen 
(pictured) told /Voice of Action/ that there was already a chance we 
have triggered a “global tipping cascade” that would take us to a less 
habitable “Hothouse Earth” climate, regardless of whether we reduced 
emissions.

Steffen says it would take 30 years at best (more likely 40-60 years) to 
transition to net zero emissions, but when it comes to tipping points 
such as Arctic sea ice we could have already run out of time.

Evidence shows we will also lose control of the tipping points for the 
Amazon rainforest 
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/25/amazonian-rainforest-near-unrecoverable-tipping-point?CMP=share_btn_tw>, 
the West Antarctic ice sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much less 
time than it’s going to take us to get to net zero emissions, Steffen says.

“Given the momentum in both the Earth and human systems, and the growing 
difference between the ‘reaction time’ needed to steer humanity towards 
a more sustainable future, and the ‘intervention time’ left to avert a 
range of catastrophes in both the physical climate system (e.g., melting 
of Arctic sea ice) and the biosphere (e.g., loss of the Great Barrier 
Reef), we are already deep into the trajectory towards collapse,” said 
Steffen.

“That is, the intervention time we have left has, in many cases, shrunk 
to levels that are shorter than the time it would take to transition to 
a more sustainable system.

“The fact that many of the features of the Earth System that are being 
damaged or lost constitute ‘tipping points’ that could well link to form 
a ‘tipping cascade’ raises the ultimate question: Have we already lost 
control of the system? Is collapse now inevitable?”

This is not a unique view – leading Stanford University biologists, who 
were first to reveal that we are already experiencing the sixth mass 
extinction on Earth, released new research this week 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/01/sixth-mass-extinction-of-wildlife-accelerating-scientists-warn> 
showing species extinctions are accelerating in an unprecedented manner, 
which may be a tipping point for the collapse of human civilisation.

Also in the past week research emerged 
<https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-among-global-hot-spots-as-droughts-worsen-in-warming-world-20200601-p54ydh.html?btis> 
showing the world’s major food baskets will experience more extreme 
droughts than previously forecast, with southern Australia among the 
worst hit globally.

Steffen used the metaphor of the Titanic in one of his recent talks to 
describe how we may cross tipping points faster than the time it would 
take us to react to get our impact on the climate under control.

“If the Titanic realises that it’s in trouble and it has about 5km that 
it needs to slow and steer the ship, but it’s only 3km away from the 
iceberg, it’s already doomed,” he said.


      ‘This is an existential threat to civilization’

Steffen, along with some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists, 
laid out our predicament in the starkest possible terms in a piece for 
the journal Nature <https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0> 
at the end of last year.

They found that 9 of the 15 known Earth tipping elements that regulate 
the state of the planet had been activated, and there was now scientific 
support for declaring a state of planetary emergency. These tipping 
points can trigger abrupt carbon release back into the atmosphere, such 
as the release of carbon dioxide and methane caused by the irreversible 
thawing of the Arctic permafrost.

9 of 15 known Earth tipping points have been activated

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