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<h1 class="css-twhgrd">‘Collapse of civilisation is the
most likely outcome’: top climate scientists</h1>
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<div class="css-7kp13n">By</div>
<div class="css-7ol5x1"><span class="css-fgeroe">ASHER
MOSES</span></div>
<div class="css-8rl9b7">voiceofaction.org</div>
<div class="css-zskk6u">19 min</div>
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<p>Australia’s top climate scientist says “we
are already deep into the trajectory towards
collapse” of civilisation, which may now be
inevitable because 9 of the 15 known global
climate tipping points that regulate the
state of the planet have been activated.</p>
<p>Australian National University emeritus
professor Will Steffen (pictured) told <em>Voice
of Action</em> that there was already a
chance we have triggered a “global tipping
cascade” that would take us to a less
habitable “Hothouse Earth” climate,
regardless of whether we reduced emissions.</p>
<p>Steffen says it would take 30 years at best
(more likely 40-60 years) to transition to
net zero emissions, but when it comes to
tipping points such as Arctic sea ice we
could have already run out of time.</p>
<p>Evidence shows we will also lose control of
the tipping points for the <a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/25/amazonian-rainforest-near-unrecoverable-tipping-point?CMP=share_btn_tw"
rel="noreferrer noopener">Amazon
rainforest</a>, the West Antarctic ice
sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much
less time than it’s going to take us to get
to net zero emissions, Steffen says.</p>
<p>“Given the momentum in both the Earth and
human systems, and the growing difference
between the ‘reaction time’ needed to steer
humanity towards a more sustainable future,
and the ‘intervention time’ left to avert a
range of catastrophes in both the physical
climate system (e.g., melting of Arctic sea
ice) and the biosphere (e.g., loss of the
Great Barrier Reef), we are already deep
into the trajectory towards collapse,” said
Steffen.</p>
<p>“That is, the intervention time we have
left has, in many cases, shrunk to levels
that are shorter than the time it would take
to transition to a more sustainable system.</p>
<p>“The fact that many of the features of the
Earth System that are being damaged or lost
constitute ‘tipping points’ that could well
link to form a ‘tipping cascade’ raises the
ultimate question: Have we already lost
control of the system? Is collapse now
inevitable?”</p>
<p>This is not a unique view – leading
Stanford University biologists, who were
first to reveal that we are already
experiencing the sixth mass extinction on
Earth, released <a rel="noreferrer
noopener"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/01/sixth-mass-extinction-of-wildlife-accelerating-scientists-warn">new
research this week</a> showing species
extinctions are accelerating in an
unprecedented manner, which may be a tipping
point for the collapse of human
civilisation.</p>
<p>Also in the past week <a
href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-among-global-hot-spots-as-droughts-worsen-in-warming-world-20200601-p54ydh.html?btis"
rel="noreferrer noopener">research emerged</a>
showing the world’s major food baskets will
experience more extreme droughts than
previously forecast, with southern Australia
among the worst hit globally.</p>
<p>Steffen used the metaphor of the Titanic in
one of his recent talks to describe how we
may cross tipping points faster than the
time it would take us to react to get our
impact on the climate under control.</p>
<p>“If the Titanic realises that it’s in
trouble and it has about 5km that it needs
to slow and steer the ship, but it’s only
3km away from the iceberg, it’s already
doomed,” he said.</p>
<h3>‘This is an existential threat to
civilization’</h3>
<p>Steffen, along with some of the world’s
most eminent climate scientists, laid out
our predicament in the starkest possible
terms in a <a rel="noreferrer noopener"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0">piece
for the journal Nature</a> at the end of
last year.</p>
<p>They found that 9 of the 15 known Earth
tipping elements that regulate the state of
the planet had been activated, and there was
now scientific support for declaring a state
of planetary emergency. These tipping points
can trigger abrupt carbon release back into
the atmosphere, such as the release of
carbon dioxide and methane caused by the
irreversible thawing of the Arctic
permafrost.</p>
<figure>
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<figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fvoiceofaction.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F06%2Ftipping-points-climate-change-nature-comment-1.jpg"
alt="" width="608" height="424"> </figure>
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<figcaption>9 of 15 known Earth tipping
points have been activated</figcaption></figure>
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