[D66] Combidoom: “Worst case” CO2 emissions scenario is best match for assessing climate risk, impact by 2050

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https://whrc.org/worst-case-co2-emissions-scenario-is-best-match-for-assessing-climate-risk-impact-by-2050/


    “Worst case” CO_2 emissions scenario is best match for assessing
    climate risk, impact by 2050

posted on August 3, 2020

<https://whrc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/EJNCfKgWwAA8DgM.jpg>

The RCP 8.5 CO_2 emissions pathway, long considered a “worst case 
scenario” by the international science community, is the most 
appropriate for conducting assessments of climate change impacts by 
2050, according to a new article published 
<https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/30/2007117117> today in the 
/Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences./ The work was authored 
by Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC) Risk Program Director Dr. 
Christopher Schwalm <https://whrc.org/staff/christopher-schwalm/>, Dr. 
Spencer Glendon <http://whrc.org/staff/spencer-glendon/>, a Senior 
Fellow at WHRC and founder of Probable Futures, and by WHRC President 
Dr. Philip Duffy <https://whrc.org/staff/philip-duffy/>. Long dismissed 
as alarmist or misleading, the paper argues that is actually the closest 
approximation of both historical emissions and anticipated outcomes of 
current global climate policies, tracking within 1% of actual emissions.

“Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP 8.5 in close agreement 
with historical total cumulative CO_2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 
is also the best match out to mid-century under current and stated 
policies with still highly plausible levels of CO_2 emissions in 2100,” 
the authors wrote.*“*…Not using RCP8.5 to describe the previous 15 years 
assumes a level of mitigation that did not occur, thereby skewing 
subsequent assessments by lessening the severity of warming and 
associated physical climate risk.”


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