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    Niet verder lezen<br>

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    <address><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://whrc.org/worst-case-co2-emissions-scenario-is-best-match-for-assessing-climate-risk-impact-by-2050/">https://whrc.org/worst-case-co2-emissions-scenario-is-best-match-for-assessing-climate-risk-impact-by-2050/</a><br>

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    <h2 class="title">

      <div class="title-border">“Worst case” CO<sub>2</sub> emissions

        scenario is best match for assessing climate risk, impact by

        2050</div>

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    <div class="meta-data"> <span class="post-time meta-data">posted on

        August 3, 2020</span> </div>

    <p><a

        href="https://whrc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/EJNCfKgWwAA8DgM.jpg"

        class="fancybox image"><img class="alignright wp-image-33437

          size-medium"

src="https://whrc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/EJNCfKgWwAA8DgM-300x296.jpg"

          alt="" width="300" height="296"></a><br>

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    <p>The RCP 8.5 CO<sub>2</sub> emissions pathway, long considered a

      “worst case scenario” by the international science community, is

      the most appropriate for conducting assessments of climate change

      impacts by 2050, according to a new <a

        href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/30/2007117117"

        target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">article published</a>

      today in the <em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.</em>

      The work was authored by Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC) Risk

      Program Director Dr. <a

        href="https://whrc.org/staff/christopher-schwalm/">Christopher

        Schwalm</a>, Dr. <a

        href="http://whrc.org/staff/spencer-glendon/">Spencer Glendon</a>,

      a Senior Fellow at WHRC and founder of Probable Futures, and by

      WHRC President Dr. <a href="https://whrc.org/staff/philip-duffy/">Philip

        Duffy</a>. Long dismissed as alarmist or misleading, the paper

      argues that is actually the closest approximation of both

      historical emissions and anticipated outcomes of current global

      climate policies, tracking within 1% of actual emissions.</p>

    <p>“Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP 8.5 in close

      agreement with historical total cumulative CO<sub>2</sub>

      emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to

      mid-century under current and stated policies with still highly

      plausible levels of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in 2100,” the authors

      wrote.<b> “</b>…Not using RCP8.5 to describe the previous 15 years

      assumes a level of mitigation that did not occur, thereby skewing

      subsequent assessments by lessening the severity of warming and

      associated physical climate risk.”</p>

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