Eurotrouble duurt voort...

[Dr. Marc-Alexander Fluks]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

 Gisteren in The Independent:
>Christopher Smallwood: Eurozone's diverging economies are likely to cause a
>chaotic break-up of the system

 Zie: http://news.independent.co.uk/business/comment/article307553.ece

 Citaatjes...

 The emerging trends are disturbing. They strongly suggest not only that the
 eurozone is most unlikely to survive in its present form, but that its
 break-up could take place in conditions of financial chaos.

 The fundamental problem is that the economic performance of member states,
 rather than converging as we were led to believe it would, has diverged
 steadily.

 As we have seen in Germany, structural reforms make things worse before they
 get better. People spend less and demand falls. The budget deficit spirals
 away and has to be restrained. Lower inflation means higher real interest
 rates (set by the European Central Bank), bearing down more heavily on the
 economy.

 The Dutch have now embarked on their own long, hard slog to make themselves
 competitive again, and perhaps will see it through.

 The truth is that a monetary system in which interest and exchange rates are
 removed from the control of individual governments, which at the same time
 contains members with relatively fragile political regimes, and which allows
 free movement of capital, is unlikely to survive indefinitely. Italy may be
 the beginning of the fragmentation story, but it is unlikely to be the end.

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