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<h1 class="reader-title">Greenhouse gas emissions at 'all-time
high' causing unprecedented rate of global warming, warn
scientists</h1>
<div class="credits reader-credits">Science X</div>
<div class="credits reader-credits">June 8, 2023 </div>
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<p>Human-caused global warming has continued to increase
at an "unprecedented rate" since the last major
assessment of the climate system published two years
ago, say 50 leading scientists. </p>
<p>One of the researchers said the analysis was a "timely
wake-up call" that the pace and scale of climate action
has been insufficient, and it comes as <a
href="https://phys.org/tags/climate+experts/"
rel="tag">climate experts</a> meet in Bonn to prepare
the ground for the major COP28 climate conference in the
UAE in December, which will include a stocktake of
progress towards keeping <a
href="https://phys.org/tags/global+warming/" rel="tag">global
warming</a> to 1.5°C by 2050.
</p>
<p>Given the speed at which the <a
href="https://phys.org/tags/global+climate+system/"
rel="tag">global climate system</a> is changing, the
scientists argue that policymakers, climate negotiators
and <a
href="https://phys.org/tags/civil+society+groups/"
rel="tag">civil society groups</a> need to have access
to up-to-date and robust scientific evidence on which to
base decisions.
</p>
<p>The authoritative source of scientific information on
the state of the climate is the UN's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) but the turnaround time
for its major assessments is five or ten years, and that
creates an "information gap," particularly when climate
indicators are changing rapidly.
</p>
<p>In an initiative being led by the University of Leeds,
the scientists have developed an <a
href="https://phys.org/tags/open+data/" rel="tag">open
data</a>, open science platform—the <a
href="https://climatechangetracker.org/igcc">Indicators
of Global Climate Change</a> and website (<a
href="https://igcc.earth/"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://igcc.earth/</a>).
It will update information on key climate indicators
every year.
</p>
<h2>Critical decade for climate change </h2>
<p>The Indicators of Global Climate Change Project is
being coordinated by Professor Piers Forster, Director
of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at Leeds. He
said, "This is the critical decade for climate change.
Decisions made now will have an impact on how much
temperatures will rise and the degree and severity of
impacts we will see as a result.
</p>
<p>"Long-term warming rates are currently at a long-term
high, caused by highest-ever levels of <a
href="https://phys.org/tags/greenhouse+gas+emissions/"
rel="tag">greenhouse gas emissions</a>. But there is
evidence that the rate of increase in greenhouse gas
emissions has slowed.
</p>
<p>"We need to be nimble footed in the face of climate
change. We need to change policy and approaches in the
light of the latest evidence about the state of the
climate system. Time is no longer on our side. Access to
up-to-date information is vitally important."
</p>
<p>Writing in the journal <i>Earth System Science Data</i>,
the scientists have revealed how key indicators have
changed since the publication of the IPCC's Sixth
Assessment Working Group 1 report in 2021, which
produced the key data that fed into the subsequent IPCC
Sixth Synthesis Report. </p>
<h2>What the updated indicators show </h2>
<ul>
<li>Human-induced warming, largely caused by the burning
of fossil fuels, reached an average of 1.14°C for the
most recent decade (2013 to 2022) above pre-industrial
levels. This is up from 1.07°C between 2010 and 2019.
</li>
<li>Human-induced warming is now increasing at a pace of
over 0.2°C per decade. </li>
<li>The analysis also found that greenhouse gas
emissions were "at an all-time high," with human
activity resulting in the equivalent of 54 (+/-5.3)
gigatons (or billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide
being released into the atmosphere on average every
year over the last decade (2012-2021). </li>
<li>There has been positive move away from burning coal,
yet this has come at a short-term cost in that it has
added to global warming by reducing particulate
pollution in the air, which has a cooling effect. </li>
</ul>
<h2>'Indicators critical to address climate crisis' </h2>
<p>Professor Maisa Rojas Corradi, Minister of the
Environment in Chile, IPCC author and a scientist
involved in this study, said, "An annual update of key
indicators of global change is critical in helping the
international community and countries to keep the
urgency of addressing the climate crisis at the top of
the agenda and for evidence-based decision-making.
</p>
<p>"In line with the 'ratchet-mechanism' of increasing
ambition envisioned by the Paris Agreement we need
scientific information about emissions, concentration,
and temperature as often as possible to keep
international climate negotiations up to date and to be
able to adjust and if necessary correct national
policies. In the case of Chile, we have a <a
href="https://phys.org/tags/climate+change/" rel="tag">climate
change</a> law that aims at aligning government-wide
policies with climate action."
</p>
<h2>Remaining carbon budget </h2>
<p>One of the major findings of the analysis is the rate
of decline in what is known as the remaining carbon
budget, an estimate of how much carbon that can be
released into the atmosphere to give a 50% chance of
keeping global temperature rise within 1.5°C.
</p>
<p>In 2020, the IPCC calculated the remaining carbon
budget was around 500 gigatons of carbon dioxide. By the
start of 2023, the figure was roughly half that at
around 250 gigatons of <a
href="https://phys.org/tags/carbon+dioxide/" rel="tag">carbon
dioxide</a>.
</p>
<p>The reduction in the estimated remaining carbon budget
is due to a combination of continued emissions since
2020 and updated estimates of human-induced warming.
</p>
<p>Professor Forster said, "Even though we are not yet at
1.5°C warming, the carbon budget will likely be
exhausted in only a few years as we have a triple whammy
of heating from very high CO<sub>2</sub> emissions,
heating from increases in other GHG emissions and
heating from reductions in pollution.
</p>
<p>"If we don't want to see the 1.5°C goal disappearing in
our rearview mirror, the world must work much harder and
urgently at bringing emissions down. Our aim is for this
project to help the key players urgently make that
important work happen with up-to-date and timely data at
their fingertips."
</p>
<p>Dr. Valérie Masson-Delmotte, from the Université Paris
Saclay who co-chaired Working Group 1 of the IPCC's
Sixth Assessment report and was involved in the climate
indicators project, said, "This robust update shows
intensifying heating of our climate driven by human
activities. It is a timely wake up call for the 2023
global stocktake of the Paris Agreement—the pace and
scale of climate action is not sufficient to limit the
escalation of climate-related risks."
</p>
<p>As recent IPCC reports have conclusively shown, with
every further increment of global warming, that the
frequency and intensity of climate extremes—including
hot extremes, heavy rainfall and agricultural
droughts—increases.
</p>
<p>The Indicators of Global Climate Change will have
annually updated information on greenhouse gas
emissions, human-induced global warming and the
remaining carbon budget.
</p>
<p>The website extends a successful climate dashboard
called the Climate Change Tracker, which was created by
software developers who took ideas from the finance
industry on how to present complex information to the
public. </p>
<p><strong>More information:</strong> Piers M. Forster et
al, Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual
update of large-scale indicators of the state of the
climate system and human influence, <i>Earth System
Science Data</i> (2023). <a data-doi="1"
href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023"
target="_blank">DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023</a> </p>
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<p><strong>Citation</strong>: Greenhouse gas emissions
at 'all-time high' causing unprecedented rate of
global warming, warn scientists (2023, June 8)
retrieved 8 June 2023 from
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