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<h1 class="reader-title">Parts of southern Europe will be baking
with around 40-45 °C as the most intense heatwave of summer
2021 is on the way this week</h1>
<p><span class="posted-on">Published: <time class="entry-date"
datetime="2021-07-27T16:43:48+00:00">27/07/2021</time></span>
By: <span class="byline"><span class="screen-reader-text">Author
</span><a class="url fn n"
href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/author/admin/">Marko
Korosec</a></span> </p>
<p> <span class="cat-links"><span class="screen-reader-text">Categories
</span><a
href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/category/europe-weather/"
rel="category tag">Europe Weather</a></span> </p>
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<p><strong>It looks like the final days of July and
early August will bring the most intense heatwave of
summer 2021 in Europe so far. Temperatures are
expected to push well above 40 °C in some areas,
potentially up to around 45 °C is possible over
Greece over the weekend. This will significantly
increase wildfire threat across the Mediterranean
region and the Balkan peninsula.</strong></p>
<p>The month of July has brought some severe heat mostly
into the southern and southeastern parts of the
European continent, while any significant heatwaves
have been lacking to the west. The hottest
temperatures were observed over the Mediterranean, the
Balkan peninsula, and Turkey, exceeding 40 °C at
times. However, a heatwave was lately also spread
across the normally cooler UK and Ireland, low 30s
were reported last week.</p>
<p>But this week, a textbook pattern is establishing
over Europe, which is prone to extremely high
temperatures. The remainder of July and also the early
days of August, the final summer season, will bring
the most intense heatwave of 2021.</p>
<p><img alt="most intense heatwave summer 2021 forecast
balkan peninsula"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula.jpg"
data-pin-media="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula.jpg"
data-srcset="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula.jpg
1200w,
https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula-300x169.jpg
300w,
https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula-1024x576.jpg
1024w,
https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula-768x432.jpg
768w,
https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula-480x270.jpg
480w,
https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula-720x405.jpg
720w,
https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula-320x180.jpg
320w,
https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula-735x413.jpg
735w"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-balkan-peninsula.jpg"
id="mv-trellis-img-1" width="1200" height="675"></p>
<p>The reason behind the upcoming strongest heatwave
this summer is the new upper-level blocking of High
strengthening from the Mediterranean region into the
Balkan peninsula. The heat will be extreme and should
persist for at least a week, possibly more across the
south.</p>
<p>While on the northern side of the expanding ridge, a
<a
href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/dust-cloud-europe-heatwave-mk/">massive
Saharan dust cloud is being pushed into central
Europe</a> as well.</p>
<p>Peak temperatures are expected to push well above 40
°C, potentially even close to around 45 °C in parts of
the southern Balkan peninsula, as well as Italy and
other parts of the south-central Mediterranean.</p>
<p>Here is the animation of the temperatures in the
lowest parts of the atmosphere over the next 10 days.
A significantly warmer air mass than normal will
quickly increase from the Mediterranean into the
Balkan peninsula, with nearly 10 °C above average
temperatures expected.</p>
<p>Parts of Italy, Serbia, North Macedonia, Albania,
Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece are all ready to get
baked by the extreme and dry heatwave. High-resolution
model guidance is clear with a good agreement of peak
daytime temperatures approaching the mid-40s during
the hottest days.</p>
<p>The air mass during this heatwave will remain rather
dry and should also additionally increase the wildfire
potential across southern parts of Europe where
drought is the worst. And <a
href="https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1419827003201663010"
target="_blank" rel="noopener">destructive wildfires
are already ongoing in Sardinia, Italy</a> this
week.</p>
<p>Such a drier-than-normal pattern will likely continue
for the South, so conditions are expected to become
even worse. Drought and wildfires are other side
effect of a significant heatwave, while heatstroke
remains the worst.</p>
<h2>SEAS AROUND EUROPE ARE GETTING WARMER</h2>
<p>With the quite persistent warmer patterns over the
recent weeks, also the sea surface temperatures have
warmer up. Even significantly in some parts of Europe.
Those remain extremely high across the Baltic region,
with the waters being more than 6 °C above normal.
Waterspout season towards this fall could be wild
there.</p>
<p>Also very warm are the Atlantic Ocean waters around
the UK and Ireland. About 2 to 4 °C above normal for
the end of July which is rather impressive given the
lack of any significant heatwaves over western Europe
so far this summer.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-sea-temperature"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-sea-temperature.jpg"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-sea-temperature.jpg"
id="mv-trellis-img-2" width="1200" height="681"></p>
<p>The most concerning part of Europe is, however, the
Mediterranean Sea water temperature. Basically, the
whole Mediterranean region has seas well above the
average, thanks to the persistent strong heatwaves and
very high temperatures this year.</p>
<p>Both the sea and lake temperatures are warming up a
lot this summer. The Mediterranean sea has nearly +3
°C above long-term average sea temperatures in many
areas.</p>
<p>Keep in mind that very warm seas are a most important
source of high moisture content that directly reflects
into the highest dewpoints and high to extreme
instability when it comes to severe thunderstorms.</p>
<p>Just this Monday, very high moisture contributed to a
destructive hailstorm near Parma, Italy where a
striking number of vehicles were literally destroyed,
being trapped in the traffic jams along the highway
Milano – Bologna.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-hail"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-hail.jpg"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-hail.jpg"
id="mv-trellis-img-3" width="1540" height="620"></p>
<p><em>Above: giant hailstones near Parma, Italy.
Credits: <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/meteoBassanoPedemontanadelGrappa/"
target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteo Bassano e
Pedemontana del Grappa</a> / <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/tornadoinitalia"
target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tornado in Italia</a></em></p>
<p>When the end of summer approaches in Europe, the seas
are typically the warmest. Resulting in very high
dewpoints that often lead to extreme flooding events
across eastern Iberia, southern France, along the
southern Alps, Italy, and the western Balkan
peninsula.</p>
<p>Keep this in mind as it could turn to r a potential
concerning threat over the next few months as we enter
into progressive fall patterns and frontal systems.</p>
<p>A rather typical combination of the deep trough/low
over the North Atlantic and western Europe against the
blocking High to its east results in a strong warm
advection return from the deep southern parts of
Europe, Mediterranean, and North Africa. Early this
week, it also combines with the massive dust cloud
advection from the Saharan desert.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-pattern"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-pattern.png"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-pattern.png"
id="mv-trellis-img-4" width="1200" height="850"></p>
<p>More stable weather is foreseen for a few days across
much of Europe. While in between both large scale
features, southwesterly winds will gradually lead to
ample moisture returning toward the Alps. The next
frontal system is likely to arrive at the end of the
next weekend. Severe storms will likely form after a
period of hot days.</p>
<p>Under the ridge, the heatwave will rapidly increase
in the coming days, affecting the Mediterranean and
the Balkan peninsula, including at least the southern
parts of central Europe. As well as central Italy.
While the temperatures were already in the mid to
upper 30s this Monday and low 40s on Tuesday, they
will soon exceed the 40 °C marks. And push much higher
towards the weekend.</p>
<p>The attached chart below is showing the maximum
temperatures observed across the central and southern
parts of Europe early this week, on Monday, July 26th.
The Mid to upper 30s were reported from Italy and the
southern Balkan peninsula. Cooler conditions remain
across Western Europe.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-maximum-monday"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-maximum-monday.jpg"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-maximum-monday.jpg"
id="mv-trellis-img-5" width="1311" height="732"></p>
<p>Extremely hot weather continues over Algeria and
Tunisia, reaching around +50 °C on several days
already this month. But it is indeed a dry heat and a
rather normal temperature for the region during peak
summer. The lack of moisture is making it a bit easier
to withstand.</p>
<h2>HEAT INTENSIFIES ACROSS ITALY AND THE BALKANS,
LOCALLY CLOSE TO 45 °C</h2>
<p>This week’s general weather pattern over Europe is a
textbook example of how a strong warm advection brings
an intense heatwave. When we see the low to the west
(blueish colors) and high (reddish colors) to the
east-southeast, we should be weather aware that it
will lead the temperature to rise a lot.</p>
<p>A so-called <strong>heat dome</strong> establishes
across the southeastern parts of Europe with an
extended period of extreme heat. This is a term that
we use when an area of high-pressure parks over a
large portion of the continent and persists there for
days.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-heat-dome"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-heat-dome.png"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-heat-dome.png"
id="mv-trellis-img-6" width="1225" height="797"></p>
<p>Heat dome works like a lid on a pot, trapping hot air
mass underneath. And this feature is often blamed to
be responsible for long-lasting and deadly heatwaves
around the world. Often a very significant heatwave
develops underneath with temperatures well above
normal, challenging some heat records.</p>
<p>Such a heat dome event brought an <a
href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/heat-dome-record-breaking-heatwave-pacific-northwest-canada-united-states-mk/"
target="_blank" rel="noopener">unprecedented
historic heat over Pacific Northwest</a> of Canada
and the United States a few weeks ago.</p>
<p>During the coming days, temperatures will be
gradually rising and likely reach higher daily highs.
Parts of central Europe and the Balkan peninsula will
experience about 10-15 °C warmer temperatures than
normal, an extremely hot period for the end of July.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-temperature-anomaly"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-temperature-anomaly.jpg"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-temperature-anomaly.jpg"
id="mv-trellis-img-7" width="1200" height="875"></p>
<p>With such an anomaly of the near-surface temperature
that are being forecasted, the peak afternoon maximum
values should easily push into the low 40s. Very
likely even higher after tomorrow, Wednesday. The
hottest locations will be the most heat-prone lowlands
and valleys.</p>
<p>A scorching heatwave will establish, we can see the
highlighted areas where the lowlands typically bring
the highest temperatures on summer days. The two
charts below are showing the highest temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday, July 27th and 29th,
respectively.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-wednesday-thursday"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-wednesday-thursday.png"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-wednesday-thursday.png"
id="mv-trellis-img-8" width="1400" height="562"></p>
<p>Parts so southern Italy, Albania, Greece, North
Macedonia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, and western
Turkey should be baking in the temperatures between 39
and 43 °C, according to this weather model.</p>
<p>Towards the weekend, the heatwave likely peaks and
brings the highest temperatures for the same areas.
The afternoon will be even hotter, thankfully also a
tad drier, so the Heat Index will remain similar. The
worst combination would be with the high moisture, but
this is not happening this time.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-friday-saturday"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-friday-saturday.png"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-friday-saturday.png"
id="mv-trellis-img-9" width="1400" height="559"></p>
<p>The highest temperatures will be observed over
southeast Italy, possibly also the eastern Po valley
on the north, on both Friday and Saturday. While the
strongest heat is expected over the central and
southern Balkan peninsula.</p>
<p>Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, eastern Croatia,
southern Romania, most of Bulgaria, and also western
Turkey should expect 40-44 °C during the afternoon
hours.</p>
<p>To better imagine how anomalous the core of the heat
will be to the south, see the attached GFS Meteogram
ensemble forecast charts below. Those include the 850
mbar (approximately 1500 m ASL) temperature forecast
for Lecce, southern Italy, and Athens, Greece in the
southern Balkan peninsula over the next 14 days.</p>
<p> The sign of significant warming this week is more
than obvious.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-meteogram"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-meteogram.png"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-meteogram.png"
id="mv-trellis-img-10" width="1461" height="676"></p>
<p>Note, that the temperature over Athens is gradually
increasing until the peak on August 2nd, reaching
nearly 27 °C at the 850 mbar level, so about 10 °C
above the normal values at this height. This is
undoubtedly leading to extremely high daytime maximum
temperatures, close to mid-40s.</p>
<p>While the right chart for Lecce, Italy hints that the
heat will remain as hot as it is in these days, also
peaking around Aug 2nd. Temperatures are about 7-8 °C
warmer than normal at 1500 m ASL.</p>
<h2>EXTREME HEATWAVE EXTENDS INTO EARLY AUGUST,
REFRESHMENT TO THE NORTH</h2>
<p>Although parts of the Mediterranean and the Balkan
peninsula might see the peak of the ongoing heatwave
on Friday into Saturday, the scorching heat will
remain over far southern parts of the peninsula also
through the early days of August.</p>
<p>Sunday could bring nearly 45 °C across Greece, 41-42
°C over Bulgaria, southern Romania, and western
Turkey. With Monday being even hottest, potentially
challenging some heat daily records in the region.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-sunday-monday"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-sunday-monday.png"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-sunday-monday.png"
id="mv-trellis-img-11" width="1420" height="569"></p>
<p>Bulgaria, Greece, and western Turkey could see the
peak afternoon temperatures between 42 and 45 °C on
Monday. This will be the hottest day of the year for
the southern Balkan peninsula region.</p>
<p>Refreshing temperatures are expected to arrive into
central Europe on Sunday through Monday as well,
staying in the upper 20s to low 30s during the day.
Severe weather will likely develop around the Alps on
Sunday, however.</p>
<p><img
alt="most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-pattern-weekend"
data-src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-pattern-weekend.png"
src="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/europe-weather/most-intense-heatwave-summer-2021-forecast-pattern-weekend.png"
id="mv-trellis-img-12" width="1201" height="860"></p>
<p>But the distance of the potential new frontal system
is still too far in advance and the exact evolution
remains uncertain. Stay tuned for further details in
the coming days.</p>
<p>***The images used in this article were provided by <a
href="https://www.wxcharts.com/">Wxcharts</a>, and <a
href="https://www.wetterzentrale.de/">Wetterzentrale</a>.</p>
<p>SEE ALSO:</p>
<p><a
href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/dust-cloud-europe-heatwave-mk/">A
massive Saharan dust cloud spreads into Europe on
the edge of the strengthening heatwave over the
Balkan peninsula this week</a></p>
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