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<h2 class="fl-heading"><span class="fl-heading-text">Why
is America getting a new $100 billion nuclear
weapon?</span> </h2>
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<p><strong>By</strong> <strong><a
href="https://thebulletin.org/biography/elisabeth-eaves">Elisabeth
Eaves</a><br>
</strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">February
8, 2021</span></p>
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<p>America is building a new weapon of mass
destruction, a nuclear missile the length of a
bowling lane. It will be able to travel some <a
href="https://fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/icbm/lgm-30_3.htm">6,000 miles</a>,
carrying a warhead more than 20 times more
powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on
Hiroshima. It will be able to kill hundreds of
thousands of people in a single shot.</p>
<p>The US Air Force plans to order more than 600
of them.</p>
<p>On September 8, the Air Force gave the defense
company Northrop Grumman an initial contract of
$13.3 billion to begin engineering and
manufacturing the missile, but that will be just
a fraction of the total bill. Based on a
Pentagon report cited by the <a
href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USNuclearModernization#ICBM">Arms
Control Association Association</a> and <a>Bloomberg
News</a>, the government will spend roughly
$100 billion to build the weapon, which will be
ready to use around 2029.</p>
<p>To put that price tag in perspective, $100
billion could pay 1.24 million elementary school
teacher salaries for a year, provide 2.84
million four-year university scholarships, or
cover 3.3 million hospital stays for covid-19
patients. It’s enough to build a massive
mechanical wall to <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/17/nyregion/sea-wall-nyc.html">protect
New York City</a> from sea level rise.<a
href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/02/why-is-america-getting-a-new-100-billion-nuclear-weapon/#_ftn4"
name="_ftnref4"></a> It’s enough to get <a
href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1165136/SpaceX-news-Elon-Musk-cost-building-civilisation-on-Mars">to
Mars</a>.</p>
<p>One day soon, the Air Force will christen this
new war machine with its “popular” name, likely
some word that projects goodness and strength,
in keeping with past nuclear missiles like the
Atlas, Titan, and Peacekeeper. For now, though,
the missile goes by the inglorious acronym GBSD,
for “ground-based strategic deterrent.” The GBSD
is designed to replace the existing fleet of
Minuteman III missiles; both are
intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs.
Like its predecessors, the GBSD fleet will be
lodged in underground silos, widely scattered in
three groups known as “wings” across five
states. The official purpose of American ICBMs
goes beyond responding to nuclear assault. They
are also intended to deter such attacks, and
serve as targets in case there is one.<a
href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/02/why-is-america-getting-a-new-100-billion-nuclear-weapon/#_ftnref1"
name="_ftn1"></a></p>
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<p>Defense industry concepts for the
proposed GBSD missile (left to right:
Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop
Grumman). In September 2020, after Boeing
had dropped its bid, the US Air Force
awarded Northrop Grumman the initial $13.3
billion contract.</p>
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<p>Under the theory of deterrence, America’s
<a
href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1701286">nuclear
arsenal</a>—currently made up of <a
href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1701286">3,800
warheads</a>—sends a message to other
nuclear-armed countries. It relays to the
enemy that US retaliation would be so
awful, it had better not attack in the
first place. Many consider American
deterrence a success, pointing to the fact
that no country has ever attacked the
United States with nuclear weapons. This
argument relies on the same faulty logic
Ernie used when he told Bert he had a
banana in his ear to keep the alligators
away: The absence of alligators doesn’t
prove the banana worked. Likewise, the
absence of a nuclear attack on the United
States doesn’t prove that 3,800 warheads
are essential to deterrence. And for
practical purposes, after the first few,
they quickly grow redundant. “Once you've
dropped a couple of nuclear bombs on a
city, if you drop a couple more, all you
do is make the rubble shake,” said Air
Force Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Robert Latiff, a <em>Bulletin
</em>Science and Security Board member
who, early in his career, commanded a unit
of short-range nuclear weapons in West
Germany.</p>
<p>Deterrence is the main argument for
having a nuclear arsenal at all. But
America’s land-based missiles have another
strategic purpose all their own. Housed in
permanent silos spread across America’s
high plains, they are intended to <em>draw
fire</em> to the region in the event of
a nuclear war, forcing Russia to use up a
lot of atomic ammunition on a sparsely
populated area. If that happened, and all
three wings were destroyed, the attack
would still kill more than 10 million
people and turn the area into a charred
wasteland, unfarmable and uninhabitable
for centuries to come.</p>
<p>The GBSD’s detractors include long-time
peace activists, as you’d expect. But many
of the missile’s critics are former
military leaders, and their criticism has
to do with those immovable silos. Relative
to nuclear missiles on submarines, which
can slink around undetected, and nuclear
bombs on airplanes—the two other legs of
the nuclear triad, in defense
jargon—America’s land-based nuclear
missiles are easy marks.</p>
<p>Because they are so exposed, they pose
another risk: To avoid being destroyed and
rendered useless—their silos provide no
real protection against a direct Russian
nuclear strike—they would be “launched on
warning,” that is, as soon as the Pentagon
got wind of an incoming nuclear attack.
But the computer systems that warn of such
incoming fire may be vulnerable to hacking
and false alarms. During the Cold War,
military computer glitches in both the
United States and Russia caused <a
href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-12/focus/nuclear-false-warnings-risk-catastrophe">numerous
close calls</a>, and since then,
cyberthreats have become an increasing
concern. An investigation ordered by the
Obama administration in 2010 found that
the Minutemen missiles were vulnerable to
a potentially <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/opinion/why-our-nuclear-weapons-can-be-hacked.html">crippling
cyberattack</a>. Because an error could
have disastrous consequences, James
Mattis, the former Marine Corps general
who would go on to become the 26<sup>th</sup>
US secretary of defense, <a
href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Mattis_01-27-15.pdf">testified</a>
to the Senate Armed Services Committee in
2015 that getting rid of America’s
land-based nuclear missiles “would reduce
the false alarm danger.” Whereas a bomber
can be turned around even on approach to
its target, a nuclear missile launched by
mistake can’t be recalled.</p>
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<p style="text-align: right;">Residents of
Hawaii received notifications like this on
January 13, 2018, a false alarm that went
uncorrected for thirty-eight minutes.</p>
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<p>$100 billion to replace machines that would, if
ever used, kill civilians on a mass scale and
possibly end human civilization is just another
forgotten subscription on auto-renew.</p>
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<p style="margin-top: -1.5em;"><br>
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<p style="margin-top: -1.5em;">Future US Secretary
of Defense James Mattis testified on the nuclear
triad at a 2015 Senate Armed Services Committee
hearing. (<a
href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?323991-1/hearing-national-security-threats">C-SPAN</a>)</p>
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<p>William J. Perry, secretary of defense during
the Clinton administration (and the chair of the
<em>Bulletin</em>’s Board of Sponsors), argued
in 2016 that “[w]e simply do not need to rebuild
all of the weapons we had during the Cold War”
and singled out the GBSD as unnecessary.
Replacing America’s land-based nuclear missiles,
he <a
href="https://www.ploughshares.org/issues-analysis/article/phase-out-americas-icbms">wrote</a>,
“will crowd out the funding needed to sustain
the competitive edge of our conventional forces,
and to build the capabilities needed to deal
with terrorism and cyber attacks.”<sup></sup>
Russia has about <a
href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2020.1728985">4,300
nuclear warheads</a>, the only arsenal on par
with America’s, and is also trading up for new
weapons. Yet as Perry pointed out, “If Russia
decides to build more than it needs, it is their
economy that will be destroyed, just as it was
during the Cold War.” China—a bigger long-term
threat to the United States than Russia, in the
eyes of many national security analyses—seems to
understand that excessive spending on nuclear
weapons would be self-sabotage. Even if, as the
Pentagon expects, Beijing doubles the number of
nuclear warheads in its arsenal—now estimated at
less than 300—it will still have far fewer than
either the United States or Russia.</p>
<p>For many and perhaps most Americans, nuclear
weapons are out of sight and mind. That $100
billion to replace machines that would, if ever
used, kill civilians on a mass scale and
possibly end human civilization is just another
forgotten subscription on auto-renew. But those
who do think about the GBSD mostly don’t want
it. In a <a
href="https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Public-Perspectives-ICBM.pdf">survey</a>
of registered voters conducted in October 2020
by the Federation of American Scientists, 60
percent said they would prefer other
alternatives to the new missile, ranging from
refurbishing the Minutemen to scrapping nuclear
weapons altogether. Those results echo a <a
href="http://www.commongroundagenda.org/nuclear-weapons/">2019
voter survey</a>, conducted by the Program for
Public Consultation at the University of
Maryland, that asked if the government should
phase out its fleet of land-based nuclear
missiles. Sixty-one percent of respondents—53
percent of Republicans and 69 percent of
Democrats—<a
href="http://www.commongroundagenda.org/nuclear-weapons/">said
yes</a>.</p>
<p>Which all leads to one question: Given the
expense, doubtful strategic purpose, and lack of
popularity, why is Washington spending so much
to replace the Minuteman III?</p>
<p>The answers stretch from the Utah desert to
Montana wheat fields to the halls of Congress.
They span presidential administrations and
political parties. They come from airmen and
farmers and senators and CEOs.</p>
<p>The reasons for the GBSD are historical,
political, and to a significant extent economic.
In a country where safety net programs are
limited and health insurance is a patchwork, and
where unemployment remains at nearly double the
pre-pandemic rate, many people in the states
where the new missile will be built and based
see it as a lifeline. Their elected officials
take campaign donations from defense companies,
to be sure, but are also trying to deliver jobs
in a political environment that has been hostile
to government spending on anything but defense.
Defense <em>is </em>the safety net where other
options are few.</p>
<p>A lot of people, even some of those whose
livelihoods depend on them, would like to see
the number of nuclear weapons gradually reduced
until they’re gone. The United States stands no
chance of making them disappear, though, until
more people understand why they happen—and how
little some nuclear weapons programs have to do
with national defense.</p>
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<p style="text-align: left;"><span class="">Launch
Control Facility A-1 in Southeast Wyoming.
Every launch control facility is linked to 10
separate Minuteman III missile silos.</span>
(Elisabeth Eaves)</p>
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<h3 class="uabb-heading"> <span
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<p>Go looking for a nuclear missile in America’s
heartland, and the first thing you’ll see is the
porta-potty for maintenance workers. Made of
blue or gray plastic, it stands out like a
beacon against the natural colors of the
surrounding landscape, while the chain link
fence and slender antennae are harder to spot at
a distance, and the missile itself is
underground.</p>
<p>Closer up, you’ll see that the fence, which
surrounds an area smaller than a city block, is
topped with three strands of barbed wire.
Outside the fence, there is a pole mounted with
lights, and sometimes an additional pole with
cameras. Inside the fence, where the ground may
be dirt or gravel, a few poles hold disc-shaped
security sensors. A sign on the locked gate says
“Use of deadly force authorized,” but there is
no sign to indicate the site’s ownership or
purpose, no Air Force seal or US flag. When the
missile is not being repaired, maintained, or
moved, which is most of the time, there is no
one present, and rustling grass is often the
only sound.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601aeb9f49ceb fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601aeb9f49ceb">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-none
fl-node-601aeb349ae3c" data-node="601aeb349ae3c">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-full-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601aeb34ea8b7
fl-col-group-equal-height fl-col-group-align-top
fl-col-group-custom-width" data-node="601aeb34ea8b7">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601aebff9448e fl-col-small"
data-node="601aebff9448e">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601a9c0e1a00e" data-node="601a9c0e1a00e">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>Go looking for a nuclear missile in America's
heartland, and the first thing you'll see is the
porta-potty for maintenance workers.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601aeb34eae02"
data-node="601aeb34eae02">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601aeaa2d2504 fl-visible-desktop-medium"
data-node="601aeaa2d2504">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center"
itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-png"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/porta-potty.png"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/porta-potty.png"
alt="porta-potty" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="770" height="117">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c2440be971" data-node="601c2440be971">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">Missile silo C-2 in
central Montana. (Elisabeth Eaves)
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-none
fl-node-5fffed7fad639" data-node="5fffed7fad639">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-fixed-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601aa3185e751
fl-col-group-custom-width" data-node="601aa3185e751">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601aece750f5b fl-col-small"
data-node="601aece750f5b">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-5ffff0a113067" data-node="5ffff0a113067">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>The central structure within the enclosure is a
hexagonal lid made of reinforced concrete and
steel that sits almost flush with the ground,
covering the missile below. The best vantage
point for viewing the lid, which sits on tracks,
is from the south side of the fence. In the
event of a launch, gas charges will shoot the
lid southward along the tracks in a matter of
seconds, blasting it into the field beyond, to
the detriment of any livestock in the way.</p>
<p>There are 450 of these subterranean silos. Four
hundred of them hold on-alert nuclear missiles,
ready to take off within minutes of a
presidential order and hit a target—Moscow or
Beijing, Vladivostok or Pyongyang—in 30 minutes
or less. The remaining 50 sit empty, following
weapon reductions under the New Strategic Arms
Control Treaty (New START), signed in 2010
between the United States and Russia.</p>
<p>Silos are located several miles from one
another. For every 10, there is one staffed
launch control facility, to which the silos are
connected by steel-encased cables as thick as
baguettes. The cables are supposed to be about
three feet underground, though some have risen
to the surface over the years. “If you’re
farming out there, you know where they are,”
said Joe Briggs, a commissioner of Cascade
County, Montana.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601aa2a049f29" data-node="601aa2a049f29">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>The launch control facilities are easier to
spot than the missile silos. Each one includes
an above-ground building that looks like an
elongated vinyl-sided ranch house, painted an
aggressively bland shade of beige and surrounded
by a chain link fence. Inside the house are
bedrooms, a kitchen, a dining area, and a living
room, and outside there may be a basketball
hoop. The around-the-clock team on site includes
a facility manager, security guards, and a chef.</p>
<p>The officers trained to launch nuclear weapons,
known as missileers, toil underground in teams
of two. From a secure room inside the house,
they ride an elevator down several stories and
pass through an eight-ton blast door to reach
their post, a submarine-like capsule suspended
within an outer shell. Their shifts last 24
hours, although in times of crisis, including
during the covid-19 pandemic, shifts can be
extended to 36 hours or longer. The capsule is
crammed with control consoles and paneled in
mid-century metal, like the future imagined in
1963. There is one bunk for lying down, and a
missileer may study or rest while his or her
counterpart is on watch, but neither of them
leaves the capsule during the shift. Inside it
stinks of 60 years of sweat and gear. “It's
gross. The air is stale, smells of brine and all
kinds of old, ancient industrial chemicals that
otherwise have been phased out,” said Damon
Bosetti, who served as a missileer in Montana
from 2006 to 2010. “And it's loud because of all
the machinery turning.” The noise comes from a
motor-generator that calibrates the power coming
into the capsule and the constant whoosh of air
conditioning required to keep the electronics
cool.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601aa3185e912 fl-col-small"
data-node="601aa3185e912">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601a944f5c3f8" data-node="601a944f5c3f8">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center"
itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-png"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/minuteman-silo-aerial.png"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/minuteman-silo-aerial.png"
alt="minuteman-silo-aerial" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="902" height="810">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c279672fe8" data-node="601c279672fe8">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>Aerial view of a Minuteman silo in Wyoming. The
hexagonal door at center weighs 110 tons,
designed to protect against nuclear attacks and
debris. <span class="s1">There is little else
to indicate a multiple megaton nuclear warhead
is ready to launch beneath the dirt. </span>(National
Park Service)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601aa3fece768" data-node="601aa3fece768">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center"
itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-png"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/lcc-schmatic.png"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/lcc-schmatic.png"
alt="lcc-schmatic" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="930" height="480">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c2b69ad9c2" data-node="601c2b69ad9c2">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">ICBM launch control
facilities feature an above-ground support
building with living quarters. Below ground, the
Launch Control Center (LCC) contains the
communications and launch systems. (Clayton B.
Fraser / National Park Service)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601f5df7b8d9e fl-visible-desktop-medium"
data-node="601f5df7b8d9e">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">Below, left: Alpha-1
in Montana was the first Minuteman LCC,
activated in the early 1960s. Each LCC has a
two-person crew of missileers, shown here also
at Alpha-1. Center right: The two-key launch
system is well-known from Hollywood. Right: More
than 2,400 miles of pressurized cable connect
the facilities in Montana's missile field alone.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601c832468047
fl-col-group-custom-width" data-node="601c832468047">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c832468253 fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601c832468253">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601ac525b937c" data-node="601ac525b937c">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-crop-square
fl-photo-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-jpg"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Launch_Control_Facility_after_construction_at_Malmstrom_AFB_Montana-1.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <img
class="fl-photo-img wp-image-83263 size-full
lazyloaded"
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/bb-plugin/cache/Launch_Control_Facility_after_construction_at_Malmstrom_AFB_Montana-1-square.jpg"
alt="Launch_Control_Facility_after_construction_at_Malmstrom_AFB,_Montana"
itemprop="image"
title="Launch_Control_Facility_after_construction_at_Malmstrom_AFB,_Montana"
data-ll-status="loaded" width="629"
height="629"> </a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c8372ee009" data-node="601c8372ee009">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: right;">US Air Force</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c832468259 fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601c832468259">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601c8406e77a5" data-node="601c8406e77a5">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-crop-square
fl-photo-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-png"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/malmstrom-lcc.png"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <br>
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c859b5eeec" data-node="601c859b5eeec">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p class="p1" style="text-align: right;">Josh
Aycock / US Air Force</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c83246825d fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601c83246825d">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601aa365b0636" data-node="601aa365b0636">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-crop-square
fl-photo-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-jpg"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/lcc-key-panel.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <img
class="fl-photo-img wp-image-83208 size-full
lazyloaded"
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/bb-plugin/cache/lcc-key-panel-square.jpg"
alt="lcc-key-panel" itemprop="image"
title="lcc-key-panel"
data-ll-status="loaded" width="1210"
height="1214"> </a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c85988b345" data-node="601c85988b345">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: right;">Elisabeth Eaves</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c83246825f fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601c83246825f">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601c83fb4f77f" data-node="601c83fb4f77f">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-crop-square
fl-photo-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-jpg"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Pasted-Graphic-28.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <img
class="fl-photo-img wp-image-83196 size-full
lazyloaded"
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/bb-plugin/cache/Pasted-Graphic-28-square.jpg"
alt="Pasted Graphic 28" itemprop="image"
title="Pasted Graphic 28"
data-ll-status="loaded" width="435"
height="488"> </a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c80a72cc76" data-node="601c80a72cc76">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: right;">Chris Willis / US
Air Force</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601f5b9785e3a
fl-col-group-custom-width" data-node="601f5b9785e3a"> </div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601f5bcb48efa
fl-col-group-custom-width" data-node="601f5bcb48efa"> </div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601c2fd72314e"
data-node="601c2fd72314e">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c2fd723360 fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601c2fd723360">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c2fd723366"
data-node="601c2fd723366">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-5ffff1431aee1" data-node="5ffff1431aee1">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>The three missile wings are headquartered,
respectively, at Malmstrom Air Force Base in
Great Falls, Montana; Minot Air Force Base, just
north of Minot, North Dakota; and F.E. Warren
Air Force Base in Cheyenne, Wyoming. The Warren
missile complex extends into Nebraska and
Colorado. The Montana missile complex, which is
the most spread out, covers 13,800 square miles,
more territory than Maryland. There are missile
silos in the Helena-Lewis and Clark National
Forest and the Pawnee National Grassland. There
are 12, plus a launch control facility, on the
Fort Berthold Indian Reservation, home of the
Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara nations. There are
missile silos next to homes, farms, and schools.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c2fd723369 fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601c2fd723369">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601c300483a2f
fl-col-group-equal-height fl-col-group-align-center
fl-col-group-custom-width fl-col-group-responsive-reversed"
data-node="601c300483a2f">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c300483bc4 fl-col-small"
data-node="601c300483bc4">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c2f4982d9d gbsd-caption"
data-node="601c2f4982d9d">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>There are currently three active ICBM missile
wings in the United states, spread across five
states. Each dot represents a missile site.
Those in darker red are active silos; pink ones
are decommissioned. (<a
href="https://nukewatch.org/">Nukewatch</a>)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c300483bc9"
data-node="601c300483bc9">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-photo
fl-node-601c2f642d5f5" data-node="601c2f642d5f5">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-photo
uabb-photo-align-center
uabb-photo-mob-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="uabb-photo-content "> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/nuclear-heartland-map.png"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/nuclear-heartland-map.png"
alt="nuclear-heartland-map" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="886" height="906">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c300483bcb fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601c300483bcb">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601b0a8e02d62"
data-node="601b0a8e02d62">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601b0a8e03019 fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601b0a8e03019">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601b0a8e03021"
data-node="601b0a8e03021">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c2f937dd02" data-node="601c2f937dd02">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>A sense of how spread out the missile fields
are is important to understanding how embedded
they are in <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/2020/10/nuclear-disarmers-cant-forget-the-communities-that-rely-on-military-spending/">local
economies</a>. Shane Etzwiler is president of
the Great Falls Chamber of Commerce, and I met
with him and County Commissioner Briggs in July
at the chamber, located on a pandemic-quieted
downtown street. Etzwiler lives 35 miles east of
Great Falls in Fairfield, a community of some
700 people with spectacular views of the Rocky
Mountain Front. Airmen bound for the launch
control facility known as Hotel 1 pass through
Fairfield. “They’re stopping in communities and
they're buying the drinks, buying the to-go
because they're going to be in the hole,”
Etzwiler said. In Fairfield, “that restaurant
will have 24 or 36 airmen stop in, getting to-go
orders or coming out of the field ready for a
different meal. The impact is tremendous in our
area.”</p>
<p>In the early teens, the Pentagon made plans to
remove 50 nuclear missiles to comply with New
START. Legislators from the “missile caucus”
states swung into action, and in January 2014,
Republican North Dakota <a
href="https://www.hoeven.senate.gov/news/news-releases/omnibus-appropriations-bill-includes-north-dakota-priorities-for-global-hawk-missile-silos">Senator
John Hoeven attached an amendment</a> to a
major spending bill that denied the Defense
Department the funds it needed to begin making
cuts. When, a month later, members of the
missile caucus got wind that the Defense
Department was going ahead with an environmental
assessment on eliminating missile silos, they
drafted outraged bipartisan letters to the
defense secretary. One, signed by senators from
Montana and North Dakota, <a
href="https://www.nti.org/gsn/article/lawmakers-icbm-states-demand-assurances-pentagon-not-studying-closing-silos/">read</a>:
"We write to make very clear our strenuous
opposition to any attempt by the Department of
Defense to circumvent existing law to proceed
with an Environmental Impact Study or an
Environmental Assessment on the elimination of
Minuteman 3 silos.” The Pentagon put the
assessment on hold and came up with a scheme to
remove the 50 missiles from silos across all
three missile wings, rather than taking out a
whole squadron from a single Air Force base. The
Pentagon also said it would keep the empty silos
“warm,” meaning maintained and ready to use.
Lawmakers from the missile caucus applauded;
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana <a
href="https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-xpm-2014-apr-08-la-na-pentagon-nuclear-20140409-story.html">called
it</a> “a big win for our nation’s security
and for Malmstrom Air Force Base and
north-central Montana.”</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601b0a8e03024 fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601b0a8e03024">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601a9e37020f0"
data-node="601a9e37020f0">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601a9e37022ad fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="601a9e37022ad">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601a9e37022b4"
data-node="601a9e37022b4">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601a9dd45e72f" data-node="601a9dd45e72f">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">“The town treated the
base almost like a cargo cult object, in that it
fell from the sky and brought great prosperity.”</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601a9e4ed25e1"
data-node="601a9e4ed25e1">
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data-node="601a9e4ed2775">
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fl-node-601afa95ae6f7" data-node="601afa95ae6f7">
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<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center"
itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-png"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/montana-malmstrom-map.png"
alt="montana-malmstrom-map" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="575" height="352">
</div>
</div>
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<div class="fl-col fl-node-601a9e4ed277a"
data-node="601a9e4ed277a">
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<p>He was right on at least one point: Maintaining
the silos would bring some medium-term financial
gain to north-central Montana. The
military—Malmstrom Air Force Base and the
Montana Air National Guard—accounts for a third
of the regional economy, with another third
coming from agriculture and a third from
everything else. Malmstrom alone is one of the
region’s largest employers. The base had an
economic impact of $372 million in 2019,
including direct and indirect jobs as well as
expenditures on construction and other services.
It’s intertwined with city life in other ways,
too. “Malmstrom brings a diversification into
our community that we wouldn't have otherwise,”
said Briggs. “If you look around Great Falls,
we've got amenities that cities twice our size
don't have. A symphony.”</p>
<p>Kristen Inbody, a writer who works for Benefis
Health System in Great Falls, credited Malmstrom
as a tool of desegregation, and for making Great
Falls the most racially diverse city in Montana.
Inbody grew up in Choteau, a town surrounded to
the east, south, and west by 20 missile silos.
“In real life, in everyday life, it’s good roads
and a better economy than there would be
otherwise,” she said. She is conscious of the
devastating effect a nuclear strike on her
region would have. “People don’t think it’s
going to happen,” she said. “The chatter is way
more often about Yellowstone.” She referred to
the supervolcano under Yellowstone National
Park, 300 miles away, which last erupted 70,000
years ago.</p>
<p>“The town treated the base almost like a cargo
cult object, in that it fell from the sky and
brought great prosperity,” said former missileer
Bosetti. Case in point: Malmstrom decommissioned
its runway in 1997 because no fixed-wing
aircraft used the base anymore, and the runway
was expensive to maintain. Ever since, local
business and political leaders have tried to
bring a mission to Malmstrom that would reopen
the runway—and rejected other, potentially
lucrative investments near the base, including a
housing development, that might interfere with
theoretical future runway use. During his time
in Great Falls, Bosetti said, a major shipping
company wanted to open a sorting center near the
runway. “That would have been amazing. Look at
the growth of shipping and delivery,” he said.
But “the town got really mad and said, ‘No, no,
no, the planes are coming back. We can't build
this thing because it'll stop the tanker wing
from relocating here eventually in the future.’
It never did. It never will.” As recently as
2019, Montana Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte
attached language to a defense bill directing
the Air Force to consider improvements to
mothballed facilities like the Malmstrom
airstrip. “With some work, the base’s runway can
once again host flying missions,” <a
href="https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2019/07/12/montanas-gianforte-calls-air-force-head-consider-fixes-malmstrom/1713462001/">Gianforte
said</a> in a speech.</p>
<p>The air strip may be a lost cause, but for
today’s city boosters, nuclear weapons hold
economic promise. Greater Great Falls can expect
to host a third of the 600-plus GBSD missiles
the Air Force is having built.</p>
<p>The Air Force plans to begin GBSD-related
construction around Cheyenne in 2023, Great
Falls in 2026, and Minot in 2029. Launch control
facilities will be upgraded. The special
vehicles that move the missiles, known as
transporter erector loaders, might clock in at a
different size or weight than the current ones,
requiring updates to county roads. “We're
talking infrastructure and roads and bridges and
things like that,” Etzwiler said. “They need
project managers, they need warehousing, they
need skilled trade workers and electronics,
telecom, you name it.”</p>
<p>It all means more jobs. “We're excited,” he
said.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-fixed-width fl-row-bg-photo
fl-node-5ffff8f60c981 fl-row-full-height fl-row-align-center
fl-animation fl-fade-in fl-animated" data-node="5ffff8f60c981"
data-animation-delay="0" data-animation-duration="3"
style="animation-duration: 3s;">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-fixed-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5ffff8f60cab7"
data-node="5ffff8f60cab7">
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data-node="5ffff8f60cabc">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
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<div class="fl-row fl-row-fixed-width fl-row-bg-none
fl-node-601c33e2ef9d8" data-node="601c33e2ef9d8">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-fixed-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601c33e35da15"
data-node="601c33e35da15">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c33e35dc4d"
data-node="601c33e35dc4d">
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fl-node-601c33d160494 gbsd-caption"
data-node="601c33d160494">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>Previous models of intercontinental ballistic
missiles are displayed at the National Museum of
the United States Air Force near Dayton, Ohio.
The Minuteman III (visible at the center right
of this photo, with first and third stages
painted green) is the only American ICBM
deployed today. (USAF Museum)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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fl-col-group-equal-height fl-col-group-align-bottom
fl-col-group-custom-width" data-node="601afb8e06d25">
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</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601afb8e06f30"
data-node="601afb8e06f30">
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fl-node-601c53cab56d5" data-node="601c53cab56d5">
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<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-heading-wrapper
uabb-heading-align-center ">
<h3 class="uabb-heading"> <span
class="uabb-heading-text">The invention of the
nuclear sponge</span> </h3>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-5fff7042d60ba secondary-drop"
data-node="5fff7042d60ba">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>A nuclear bomb without a delivery device is a
bullet without a gun. The Americans used
airplanes to drop the first atomic weapons in
1945, but soon both Washington and Moscow sought
other means of delivery, something that could
launch the explosive all the way from home turf
to foreign soil. Nazi Germany’s V2 rocket served
as inspiration. After World War II, the Soviet
Union took possession of the V2 test range and
factory, but the United States got its hands on
the rocket’s inventor, Wernher von Braun, and
brought him to America. US nuclear missiles
followed, with the first, the Atlas, entering
service in 1958. In addition to the Titan and
Peacekeeper, there were the Jupiter and Snark,
the last so-named after the elusive prey in the
Lewis Carroll poem “The Hunting of the Snark.”</p>
<p>In the words of <a
href="https://www.lanl.gov/discover/publications/national-security-science/2016-december/_assets/docs/NSS-dec2016_w78-lives-on.pdf">a
publication from Los Alamos National
Laboratory</a>, a warhead must be able to
“survive and function while traveling through
multiple severe environments: the extreme
violence of launching; accelerating within
seconds to Mach 23 (about 18,000 miles per
hour); entering the frigid vacuum of space; then
reentering the atmosphere at speeds that
threaten to break up or burn up the reentry
vehicle and its warhead.” The parts of a nuclear
missile include several rocket motors, which
fall away in stages during flight, and a
re-entry vehicle, which houses the warhead and
carries it all the way to its destination.</p>
<p>The Minuteman III, first deployed 50 years ago,
is today America’s only land-based ICBM.
Proponents of the GBSD walk a tricky line,
trying to convey an urgent need to replace the
Minuteman III while trying not to say it is
falling apart, which would presumably undermine
its deterrent effect. So they refer to the
Minuteman system as “aging” and say that while
modernization must absolutely happen right now,
with ongoing maintenance the current missiles
will be completely fine until 2029.</p>
<p>How “aged” is the system? The silos were built
at the same time as the underground launch
control centers. Bosetti described an episode in
one of the launch control capsules he frequented
in the late aughts, a months-long period with
failed sewage pumps. “There was a lake filled
with sewage at the bottom of the outer shell,
and a 2-foot diameter, 3-foot tall cardboard
tube with a plastic bag liner we used as a
toilet,” he said. “We'd periodically lug it out
to the elevator, where the sergeant upstairs
would try to empty it into the sewage lagoon.
After a few hours, you'd stop smelling the lake,
but that was just a symptom of hydrogen sulfide
poisoning. Once they fixed the sewage problems,
there was no remediation or cleaning of the
capsule shell.”</p>
<p>“Even if we're restricting it to pure
utilitarian calculations of military
usefulness,” Bosetti said, “those capsules and
their silos are decades past their design life.”</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601afb8e06f33 fl-col-small"
data-node="601afb8e06f33">
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<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">Proponents of the
GBSD walk a tricky line, trying to convey an
urgent need to replace the Minuteman III while
trying not to say it is falling apart.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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data-node="5fff7042d60b7">
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fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="5fff7042d60b8">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5fff7042d60b9"
data-node="5fff7042d60b9">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601afc88b1c46" data-node="601afc88b1c46">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center"
itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-jpg"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Pasted-Graphic-17.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Pasted-Graphic-17.jpg"
alt="Pasted Graphic 17" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="722" height="501">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c3597552b0 gbsd-caption"
data-node="601c3597552b0">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>Sewage lagoons like this are found at each
launch control facility. (Jim Ruddy / National
Park Service)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601afb3a07009" data-node="601afb3a07009">
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<p>Predictably, as the US Air Force sought better
and better nuclear missiles—cheaper and less
accident-prone, with ever-improving range,
accuracy, and destructive capability—the Soviet
Union did the same. In a 1990 study published by
the Air Force, <a
href="https://books.google.com/books?id=KdEbswm6XPYC&pg=PA43&lpg=PA43&dq">the
authors wrote</a> that “improvements in Soviet
ICBM forces and missile accuracy raised serious
concerns over the ability of silo-based ICBMs to
survive an attack.” In July 1976, Congress
refused to appropriate funds for the
Peacekeeper, convinced that the silo-based
system proposed for it would make it vulnerable.
The defense establishment explored a variety of
alternatives to fixed silos, including missiles
that could be moved around on train tracks. In
1979, President Jimmy Carter approved a system
of “multiple protective shelters,” in which
Peacekeeper missiles would be mobile. President
Ronald Reagan tried to reverse that decision and
base the missile in fixed silos, but Congress
again rejected such a plan in 1982.</p>
<p>Political battles over the vulnerability of
fixed silos continued through the 1980s. Those
eager to get new missiles deployed one way or
another, like Reagan, eventually solved the
conundrum with an intellectual contortion.
Defense thinkers began to argue that the
susceptible nature of America’s silo-based
nuclear missiles was not a flaw but a feature.
They redefined the silos as intentionally
vulnerable, designed to make Moscow use up
weapons. This rationale continues today. “The
ICBM force provides a cost-imposing strategy on
an adversary,” <a
href="https://www.armscontrol.org/policy-white-papers/2018-03/future-icbm-force-should-least-valuable-leg-triad-replaced">Mattis
explained</a> to a Senate committee in 2017.
Because they are meant to draw nuclear attacks
like a sponge draws water, military analysts
have long called America’s land-based missiles
the “nuclear sponge.”</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="5fff7042d60bb">
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itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-jpg"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/minot-icbm-farm-silos.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/minot-icbm-farm-silos.jpg"
alt="minot-icbm-farm-silos" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="675" height="356">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c35d5df3d7 gbsd-caption"
data-node="601c35d5df3d7">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>An ICBM launch site located among fields and
farms in the countryside outside Minot, North
Dakota. (Charlie Riedel / AP)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5ffff9120bca2"
data-node="5ffff9120bca2">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5ffff9120bca3 fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="5ffff9120bca3">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5ffff9120bca5"
data-node="5ffff9120bca5">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-heading
fl-node-601c5428ac649" data-node="601c5428ac649">
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<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-heading-wrapper
uabb-heading-align-center ">
<h3 class="uabb-heading"> <span
class="uabb-heading-text">Unfinished work</span>
</h3>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-5ffff9120bca6 secondary-drop"
data-node="5ffff9120bca6">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>Zane Zell’s grandparents and parents farmed
wheat on flat land outside of Shelby, Montana.
In the 1960s, when Zell was in high school, the
government seized a few acres of the family
farm. “The military comes in and says, ‘We're
going to build a missile here, so either sell us
your land or we condemn it and take it,’” he
said in July, sitting in a blue plaid shirt,
sunglasses, and a cloth mask in front of his
brick house in Shelby. The military fenced off
the area and it became Minuteman missile silo
Papa One. “A lot of people in this area were in
poverty. Either they had no knowledge of the
missiles, or didn't care, or they were
supportive of them.”</p>
<p>As a student at the University of Denver, Zell
became involved in the anti-war movement. With
his wife and children, he eventually returned to
run the farm. He still resented the missile on
his land and would perform small acts of
rebellion, deliberately driving over a surveying
stake or jostling the chain-link fence with his
tractor; by the time an airman appeared to see
what had set off the sensors, Zell would be on
the other side of his field.<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>In the summer of 1982, by which time the US had
1,000 ICBMs scattered across seven states, Zell
attended an event in the nearby town of Conrad.
There, Missoulans Mark Anderlik and Karl Zanzig
gave a presentation on the Silence One Silo
campaign, its modest yet audacious goal
encapsulated in its name. The two young men were
on the lookout for people like Zell, farmers
sympathetic to their cause who had missiles on
their land. The following summer, Silence One
Silo held a several-day “Little Peace Camp on
the Prairie” on the Zell farm, attended by about
200 people. Speakers came from around the state.
They surrounded Papa One with farm machinery and
trucks.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>Silence One Silo was just one of many efforts:
In the 1980s, an anti-nuclear weapons movement
bloomed around the world. Organizations of
physicians and religious leaders banded
together. The Mormon Church opposed a plan to
base the Peacekeeper missile in Utah and Nevada.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
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<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center"
itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-jpg"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/reagan-gorbachev-inf-signing.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/reagan-gorbachev-inf-signing.jpg"
alt="reagan-gorbachev-inf-signing"
itemprop="image" class="lazyloaded"
data-ll-status="loaded" width="585"
height="360">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c35fed8db0 gbsd-caption"
data-node="601c35fed8db0">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan signing the
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty on
December 8, 1987 in the East Room of the White
House. (Ronald Reagan Presidential Library)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601afe2724af1" data-node="601afe2724af1">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>Then the world changed. In 1988, led by Reagan
and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, the United
States and Soviet Union joined the
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the
first agreement to ban an entire category of
nuclear weapons. With the Cold War over and the
Soviet Union in economic shambles, Moscow and
Washington made more serious cuts to their
arsenals, both through unilateral moves and the
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I),
signed in 1991, which limited the number of
warheads each country could have. The United
States silenced not just one, but 550 nuclear
missile silos. In 2008, the Air Force declared
the Zell farm’s silo inactive. It tractored in a
65-foot transporter erector loader to remove the
missile. It blew up the silo and filled what was
left with concrete. The fence remains,
surrounding overgrown dry grass, a rusting sign
warning that it’s still a “hazardous area.”</p>
<p>“We didn't physically shut down any missile
silo,” Zell said. “The treaty shut them down.
But we tried to put pressure politically on our
representatives. We tried to bring it to the
public's attention.”</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601afe4219e6d" data-node="601afe4219e6d">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center"
itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-jpg"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/zane-zell.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/zane-zell.jpg"
alt="zane-zell" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="700" height="760">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c363b6b397 gbsd-caption"
data-node="601c363b6b397">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>Zane Zell outside his home in Shelby, Montana,
holding a copy of an April 29, 1984 special
section on the missile fields published by the <em>Missoulian</em>.
(Elisabeth Eaves)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601afd922fa88" data-node="601afd922fa88">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>One nuclear weapon could wipe a mid-size city
off the map and kill most of its people. Several
nuclear explosions over several cities would
kill tens of millions. If <a
href="https://www.academia.edu/36835898/A_National_Pragmatic_Safety_Limit_for_Nuclear_Weapon_Quantities">100
detonated over cities</a>, it would likely
cause a global nuclear winter, in which
widespread firestorms blanketed the world in
smoke, blocking out sunlight, lowering the
Earth’s temperature, killing off agriculture,
and leading to mass starvation. In 1986,
governments possessed a spectacularly redundant
<a
href="https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/">64,099
nuclear warheads</a>, the vast majority in the
hands of the two superpowers, though Great
Britain, France, and China also had a few
hundred each.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>With the arms reductions that followed the Cold
War, by the time a fresh-faced US President
Barack Obama entered office in 2009, there were
<a
href="https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/">“only”
11,410 nuclear warheads</a> in the world. But
by then, another worrisome trend was afoot:
Whereas at the end of the Cold War, only six
governments had nuclear weapons, now nine had
them, with India, Pakistan, and North Korea
having joined the United States, Russia, China,
France, Britain, and Israel. With more
components and fuels in more places, experts
worried that not only rogue nations but even a
terrorist group might be able to build a crude
nuclear weapon.<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>On a sunny morning in April 2009, Obama gave a
<a
href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-barack-obama-prague-delivered">speech</a>
to tens of thousands of people in Prague. He
observed that “in a strange turn of history, the
threat of global nuclear war has gone down, but
the risk of a nuclear attack has gone up.” He
pledged his country’s commitment to a world
without nuclear weapons, and went on to
negotiate New START, signed in April 2010,
limiting the United States and Russia to 1,550
deployed strategic warheads each. (Today <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/2020/12/new-start-a-timeline-of-inaction-and-disingenuous-proposals/">New
START</a> is the only remaining treaty
limiting the two countries’ nuclear arsenals;
Russia and the United States agreed to extend it
for five years late in January.) Obama’s efforts
to reduce nuclear arsenals were the main reason
he won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize.</p>
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<p style="padding: 0 5px;">Barack Obama's Prague
speech on April 5, 2009 was his first major
foreign policy address. (EURACTIV)</p>
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<p>But by late 2010, the president was in a bind.
To be ratified and go into effect, New START
needed 67 Senate votes, and Obama’s Democratic
Party had only 59 seats. Arizona Senator Jon
Kyl, who as Republican whip influenced how
fellow party members voted, had opposed nuclear
weapon agreements in the past.</p>
<p>In May, the White House submitted a
congressionally mandated report (known as the
“section 1251 report,” after a section of that
year’s National Defense Authorization Act) in
which it outlined a 10-year, $180 billion scheme
for maintaining and modernizing nuclear weapons.
For Kyl, that wasn’t enough, and the Arizona
senator spent much of the year pressuring the
administration to commit more funds to
modernization. He threatened to withhold support
or delay a vote on New START. When Democrats
lost seats in a mid-term election, Obama knew
that if the New START vote was delayed until the
next session of Congress, chances of
ratification would be even worse.</p>
<p>As the carrot to his stick, Kyl implied that he
could be persuaded to vote in favor of ratifying
New START. For instance, in a July 2010 op-ed in
the <i>Wall Street Journal</i>, he wrote that
most senators would likely consider the nuclear
treaty “relatively benign” as long as Obama
committed enough money to nuclear modernization.
Kyl kept up the pressure until the White House
updated its 1251 report in November, adding
another $5.4 billion for nuclear modernization,
including $4.1 billion to be spent between 2012
and 2016. Just two days before the Senate vote,
less than a fortnight before the end of the
session, <a
href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-10/features/recalling-senate-review-new-start">Obama
made a pledge</a> to four key Republican
senators, writing a letter in which he said that
“nuclear modernization requires investment for
the long-term,” and “[t]hat is my commitment to
the Congress—that my administration will pursue
these programs and capabilities for as long as I
am president.” His efforts at persuasion worked.
On December 22, 71 senators, including 12
Republicans, voted to ratify New START. Kyl,
after dangling the possibility of his support,
was not among them.<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>Obama had his foreign policy victory. The
United States and Russia would cut back on
warheads. But it came at the cost of committing
extra billions to nuclear modernization, which
helped pave the way for the GBSD.<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
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<p class="p1">Legislators, real-estate developers,
and industry leaders broke ground on Northrop
Grumman's headquarters for GBSD development near
Hill Air Force Base in Roy, Utah. No military
officials were present for the August 27, 2019
ceremony. (Northrop Grumman)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/1611_CyberSecurity0755a_thmb.jpg"
alt="1611_Cyber+Security+0755a_thmb"
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<p style="text-align: left;">Kathy Warden,
speaking at a cybersecurity summit in 2016. She
was appointed CEO of Northrop Grumman in January
2019. (Northrop Grumman)</p>
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<h3 class="uabb-heading"> <span
class="uabb-heading-text">Power plays</span> </h3>
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<p>In August 2019 in the suburban city of Roy,
Utah, 11 people grabbed shovels and lined up for
a group photo next to a long pile of dirt.
Behind them, the Wasatch mountains shimmered in
the summer heat. The lineup included two real
estate executives, four corporate leaders, the
president of the Utah Senate, two of Utah’s four
members of the House of Representatives, and the
state’s two senators, Mike Lee and former
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Though the empty lot in which they stood
adjoined Hill Air Force Base, there were no
military officials among the group. Lee and
Romney flanked the central figure like bishops
in a game of chess, but in place of king and
queen stood just one person, Kathy Warden, chief
executive officer of Northrop Grumman, her red
jacket vivid against the men’s blues and grays.
They were there to break ground on a Northrop
Grumman building, the company’s GBSD command
post, though it had not yet won the contract to
build the weapon. Romney touted the “high-skill,
high-paying jobs” the project would bring to his
state. The GBSD had recently survived a
defunding attempt, when, in July 2019, Oregon
Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer suggested an
independent study on extending the life of the
Minuteman III and delaying its replacement. But
his proposed amendment to the defense
authorization bill was voted down.</p>
<p>Raised in small-town Maryland, Warden has an
MBA from George Washington University and early
in her career worked for General Electric as a
senior manager in commercial industries. She has
said in interviews that the 9/11 terrorist
attacks prompted her to change professional
tracks and switch into defense. “I wanted to
create a world that was a safer place for my son
to grow up in,” she told her university alumni
association last year. “That is what made me
make a professional change but also for the past
17 years, is what kept me in this industry
because I feel like I’m doing something to
contribute … to impact the world in some small
way.” After a stint as vice president of
intelligence systems at the defense giant
General Dynamics, she joined Northrop Grumman as
head of its cybersecurity division in 2008. In
January 2019, she ascended to the top role.</p>
</div>
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itemscope=""
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href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Pasted-Graphic-36.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Pasted-Graphic-36.jpg"
alt="Pasted Graphic 36" itemprop="image"
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</a> </div>
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<p class="p1">A view of the Northrop Grumman Roy
Innovation Center under construction in December
2019. (Cynthia Griggs / US Air Force)</p>
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<p>Construction workers toiled on the new Northrop
Grumman building next to Hill Air Force base for
more than a year. During that time, as CEO,
Warden participated in quarterly earnings
conference calls with investors, and in every
one, someone asked when she expected the big
contract. In the fall of 2019, analysts asked
her if either a Federal Trade Commission
investigation or competition from Boeing might
affect the process of awarding a GBSD contract.
Each time, she said she expected a deal by the
fall of 2020. She made no mention of the
upcoming presidential election, but everyone
knew that a new administration or significant
turnover in the senate could derail the GBSD if
it wasn’t a done deal. Investors also quizzed
her about “CapEx,” or capital expenditures,
which are funds a company uses to acquire
physical assets like buildings. In the January
2020 earnings call, Warden said she expected the
company to spend $1.35 billion on capital
expenditures in 2020, a figure inflated due to
the GBSD, though she didn’t say by how
much. With the new Utah property, the company
was clearly spending a lot on a project it
hadn’t yet been hired to do.</p>
<p>In May of 2020, Warden spoke at the Bernstein
Strategic Decisions Conference, an annual
investors’ event, held virtually to accommodate
the pandemic. She answered questions in front of
a Northrop-logo backdrop while a Bernstein
analyst asked questions from a home office. In
March, the federal government had passed the
CARES Act, spending $2.2 trillion to try to
rescue the economy from the impact of the
pandemic. It was considering another bailout
package. The analyst asked, delicately, if the
health crisis threatened to slow down the GBSD:
“Some people have speculated that, GBSD being a
very large long-term program, if there is budget
pressure … Are you seeing any evidence of that
as a possibility, that this could take a little
bit longer to push through development than
perhaps we had thought?”</p>
<p>“We're actually seeing quite the opposite
focus, a focus on schedule and the importance of
getting through the engineering phase of this
program on time,” she replied. “It is important
that we both get started now.”</p>
<p>In early July, the House Armed Services
Committee debated the defense authorization bill
for 2021 in a late-night session. By this time,
the coronavirus had shut down huge swathes of
the economy, and the United States was
identifying 50,000 new cases per day. House
members wore masks and sat scattered from one
another in a cavernous committee room. Ro
Khanna, the California Democrat who represents
Silicon Valley, made a pitch from a video
screen. He proposed an amendment that would
transfer $1 billion—or one percent of the
missile’s projected cost—away from the GBSD and
into a pandemic preparedness fund.</p>
<p>In the ensuing discussion, Republican Rep. Liz
Cheney of Wyoming, home of F.E. Warren Air Force
Base and the city of Cheyenne, which like Great
Falls anticipates a GBSD windfall, <a
href="https://cheney.house.gov/2020/07/02/hasc-unanimously-passes-ndaa-cheney-leads-effort-to-defeat-cuts-to-gbsd/">countered
her colleague</a> with a string of
non-sequiturs. She said the Chinese government
had caused the global pandemic; that Congress
needed to “hold the Chinese government
accountable for this death and devastation;” and
that Khanna’s plan would benefit the government
of China. “It is absolutely shameful in my
view,” she said of his proposal. “I don’t think
the Chinese government, frankly, could imagine
in their wildest dreams that they would have
been able to get a member of the United States
Congress to propose, in response to the
pandemic, that we ought to cut a billion dollars
out of our nuclear forces.” Khanna’s proposal
was voted down. The House went on to pass a
defense authorization bill worth $741 billion,
including $1.5 billion for the GBSD to be spent
in 2021 alone.</p>
<p>Of course, defense companies don’t expect
politicians to vote for massive defense spending
without encouragement, and their efforts at
persuasion take several forms.</p>
<p>First, they hire their former clients, retired
military leaders. In a 2018 report, the Project
on Government Oversight, a non-partisan
watchdog, counted 24 former senior defense
department officials who were employed at that
time by Northrop Grumman.</p>
<p>Second, defense contractors give money to
elected officials, though not directly. A
company’s employees, executives, and their
family members may donate to political
campaigns, as may the company’s Political Action
Committees, or PACs, which are organizations set
up for the purpose of making such contributions.</p>
<p>The non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics
tracks campaign contributions by industry,
tallying how much each corporation gives via
these two proxy methods. The total amount the
defense aeronautics industry gave to national
politicians rose steadily from $8.4 million per
two-year election cycle in 1990—as the Cold War
ended—to a new peak of $35.3 million in the <a
href="https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/totals.php?cycle=2020&ind=D">2020
cycle</a>. The money is liberally distributed,
going to both Republicans and Democrats—51
percent to 49 percent in 2020—and spread among
many campaigns.</p>
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<p style="text-align: left;">Defense companies
don’t expect politicians to vote for massive
defense spending without encouragement.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<p>So, for instance, ahead of the 2020 elections,
individuals associated with Northrop Grumman
gave $1.55 million to political campaigns, and
Political Action Committees associated with the
company gave $3.77 million. Seven-hundred and
forty Northrop Grumman PAC donations went to
specific candidates, including five senators and
14 House members from Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska,
Colorado, Montana, and North Dakota—all would-be
beneficiaries of the new missile—in amounts
ranging from $2,000 to $10,000 each. A Northrop
Grumman PAC donated $12,000 in 2018 and $10,000
in 2020 to campaigns for Cheney, the Wyoming
Republican who objected to moving money away
from the GBSD.</p>
<p>Third, in addition to donating to politicians
and their campaigns, defense companies, like all
major industries in America, spend considerable
sums on lobbying, hiring professional
influencers to try to achieve legislative
results. In 2019, the defense aeronautics
industry collectively spent $46.9 million on
lobbying. Northrop Grumman outspent all its
rivals, paying $13.6 million for 57 individual
lobbyists to work on members of Congress. In
2020, it spent $12 million. Among its many
campaigns, the company paid $60,000 between
April and June of last year to have two partners
in The Duberstein Group, David Schiappa and Anne
Wall, influence members of the senate on the
GBSD and the Defense Authorization Act,
according to one of the company’s required
lobbying <a
href="https://soprweb.senate.gov/index.cfm?event=getFilingDetails&filingID=86F96CEE-365B-41E9-AC1A-59949092AF7D&filingTypeID=60">disclosure
forms</a>. As is typical in important
influence campaigns, one of those partners had
Republican ties and one Democratic. Before they
joined The Duberstein Group, Schiappa was the
Republican secretary in the Senate, a position
that schedules legislation and informs senators
of pending bills; Wall was the floor director
for Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois.</p>
<p>Lawmakers themselves also frequently become
lobbyists. Remember Jon Kyl, the Arizona senator
who, back in 2010, fought so hard to increase
funding for nuclear modernization? Kyl left
office in 2013 and became a lobbyist for
Covington & Burling, where he worked on
behalf of Northrop Grumman, among other clients.
In 2017 and 2018 alone, Kyl’s work for Covington
& Burling earned him nearly $1.9 million. In
September 2018, after Arizona Sen. John McCain
passed away, Kyl returned to fill his late
colleague’s seat for four months, during which
time he voted in favor of a $674 billion defense
appropriations package and co-authored an op-ed
in favor of acquiring low-yield nuclear
warheads, controversial “small” atomic weapons.
In January, 2019, Kyl returned to Covington
& Burling as a lobbyist, completing what <em>Politico</em>
lobbying reporter Theodoric Meyer called “one of
the most elegant spins through Washington’s
revolving door in recent memory.”</p>
<p>None of this—the revolving doors, the campaign
donations, or the lobbying—is illegal or even
unusual in US politics. But it is an essential
part of understanding why $100 billion will be
spent on the GBSD.</p>
<p>In addition, though—besides nuclear weapons’
deep entrenchment in local economies; besides
Northrop pressing all the levers of power at its
disposal; besides elected officials who equate
ICBMs with a strong defense, and who tend to be
from regions the missiles benefit
financially—besides all this, there was another
reason Warden could feel confident about the
as-yet-uninked GBSD contract through the spring
and summer of 2020, even as the pandemic raged,
unemployment soared, civil unrest tore through
cities, and the West Coast caught fire, upending
so much for so many:</p>
<p>No other company was bidding for the project.</p>
<p>As anyone who has ever hired a plumber knows,
it pays to get more than one bid, and the
Pentagon, too, subscribes to this common-sense
logic, at least in theory. In 2015, the
undersecretary of defense for acquisition, Frank
Kendall, told reporters that “the trend toward
fewer and larger prime contractors has the
potential to affect innovation, limit the supply
base, pose entry barriers to small, medium and
large businesses, and ultimately reduce
competition — resulting in higher prices to be
paid by the American taxpayer in order to
support our warfighters.”</p>
<p>Several years ago, multiple companies did plan
to compete for the GBSD. A single acquisition,
though, clinched Northrop’s spot as prime
contractor.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601b02edb4274 fl-col-small"
data-node="601b02edb4274">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-heading
fl-node-601b0f21f153b" data-node="601b0f21f153b">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-heading-wrapper
uabb-heading-align-center ">
<h3 class="uabb-heading"> <span
class="uabb-heading-text">Jon Kyl, former
senator, lobbyist</span> </h3>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-photo
fl-node-601b1120c55a3" data-node="601b1120c55a3">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-photo
uabb-photo-align-center
uabb-photo-mob-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="uabb-photo-content "> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/jon-kyl.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/jon-kyl.jpg"
alt="jon-kyl" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="558" height="372">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-photo
fl-node-601b0e647c360" data-node="601b0e647c360">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center"
itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-png"> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screen-Shot-2021-02-03-at-2.57.51-PM.png"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screen-Shot-2021-02-03-at-2.57.51-PM.png"
alt="Screen Shot 2021-02-03 at 2.57.51 PM"
itemprop="image" class="lazyloaded"
data-ll-status="loaded" width="386"
height="636">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c37aac2964 feature-caption"
data-node="601c37aac2964">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: right;">Photo: <a
href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/40252368475/">Gage
Skidmore</a><br>
Table: <a
href="https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving/rev_summary.php?id=77747">Center
for Responsive Politics</a></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-photo
fl-node-601a98d0558b7 fl-row-custom-height fl-row-align-center
fl-animation fl-fade-in fl-animated" data-node="601a98d0558b7"
data-animation-delay="0" data-animation-duration="3"
style="animation-duration: 3s;">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-fixed-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601a98d0559fa"
data-node="601a98d0559fa">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601a98d0559fb fl-col-small"
data-node="601a98d0559fb">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601a98d0559fc"
data-node="601a98d0559fc">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601a98d0559fd fl-col-small"
data-node="601a98d0559fd">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-none
fl-node-601c3852bfc0b" data-node="601c3852bfc0b">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-full-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601c38535f957"
data-node="601c38535f957">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c38535fc10"
data-node="601c38535fc10">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c3845c78b3 feature-caption"
data-node="601c3845c78b3">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">Photo of a model ICBM
nose cone during a burn test at Patrick Air
Force Base, Florida, 1956. (Hank Walker / The
LIFE Picture Collection via Getty Images)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-none
fl-node-5fff708c6b4c4" data-node="5fff708c6b4c4">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-fixed-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5fff708c6b60a
fl-col-group-equal-height fl-col-group-align-center
fl-col-group-custom-width" data-node="5fff708c6b60a">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5fff708c6b60c fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="5fff708c6b60c">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5fff708c6b60d"
data-node="5fff708c6b60d">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-heading
fl-node-601c5488a9b92" data-node="601c5488a9b92">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-heading-wrapper
uabb-heading-align-center ">
<h3 class="uabb-heading"> <span
class="uabb-heading-text">Rocket fuel</span> </h3>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-5fff708c6b60e secondary-drop"
data-node="5fff708c6b60e">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>In the Promontory Mountains of northern Utah,
barren hills stand out against a hot blue sky,
while nearby, salt flats glitter in place of
beaches on the shores of the Great Salt Lake. In
the 1950s, the company Thiokol began making and
testing rocket engines here amid the moonscape
emptiness. It constructed a complex of roads,
buildings, and test ranges, sprawling over some
30 square miles.</p>
<p>While some rocket engines rely on liquid fuel,
America’s modern ICBMs use solid fuel, a
technology Thiokol pioneered. Solid fuel starts
out with a peanut-butter-like consistency before
it is baked into a hard, rubbery mass to which
an igniter is attached. Over the years, Thiokol
built solid-fuel engines for NASA’s Space
Shuttle, as well as for the Peacekeeper and
Minuteman nuclear missiles, all tested in
Promontory.</p>
<p>After the Cold War, demand for weapons of mass
destruction shrank, and the US defense industry
went through a wave of mergers. The company ATK
swallowed Thiokol in 2001, and Orbital Sciences
swallowed ATK in 2015, resulting in a company
called Orbital ATK, which inherited the
rocket-testing expanse in Promontory. Orbital
ATK was now one of only two solid-fuel rocket
engine makers in the country, the other being
California-based Aerojet Rocketdyne.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-photo
fl-node-601c396bcba86" data-node="601c396bcba86">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-photo
uabb-photo-align-center
uabb-photo-mob-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="uabb-photo-content "> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/promotory-rocket-garden-history.gif"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <img
class="uabb-photo-img wp-image-83272
size-full lazyloaded"
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/promotory-rocket-garden-history.gif"
alt="promotory-rocket-garden-history"
title="promotory-rocket-garden-history"
itemprop="image" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="679" height="462"> </a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c38d1d0c22 feature-caption"
data-node="601c38d1d0c22">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">The “rocket garden”
at the Promontory, Utah testing-site, as seen
over decades of corporate mergers. A Minuteman I
missile rises in the background. (Kelly Michals
/ Judy Baum / Dreamstime)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c38e74de7c" data-node="601c38e74de7c">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>By this time Northrop Grumman, itself the
result of multiple mergers, was one of the
largest US defense companies. (As of 2020, it
was the fifth largest, after Lockheed Martin,
Boeing, General Dynamics, and Raytheon.) Like
its fellow leviathans, it had its eye on the
Pentagon’s faucet of nuclear modernization
contracts, and like them, it had no in-house
capacity to build solid-fuel rocket engines. If
it was going to build an ICBM, it would have to
subcontract to acquire the engines from
elsewhere. But why buy milk when you can afford
a cow? Northrop Grumman set its sights on
acquiring Orbital ATK. The Federal Trade
Commission scrutinized and eventually approved
the purchase, though it issued a decision
prohibiting Northrop Grumman from price
discrimination when its competitors came
shopping for solid rocket motors. In 2018,
Northrop bought Orbital ATK for $9.2 billion,
and with it the Promontory rocket range, just 45
miles northwest of Roy and the Hill Air Force
Base.</p>
<p>When the Air Force invited bids for the first
portion of the GBSD project—a preliminary
contract known as the technology maturation and
risk reduction phase—Lockheed Martin, Northrop
Grumman, and Boeing all submitted proposals; the
latter two won contracts in 2017. The industry,
and the Air Force, expected that both Northrop
Grumman and Boeing would eventually submit
competing bids for the main contract, known as
the engineering, manufacturing, and development
phase. But in the summer of 2019, Boeing dropped
out of the race with complaints that the process
was unfair. A Boeing spokesman later told <em>Washington
Business Journal</em> that one reason it
decided not to bid was “concern about Northrop
Grumman’s compliance with a 2018 Federal Trade
Commission order that prohibits it from
discriminating in the sale of solid rocket
motors.” At the time Boeing withdrew, though, it
was also suffering in other departments, with
aviation authorities having grounded its 737 Max
jetliner after two crashes. The company may not
have wanted to take on the expense and risk of
bidding for the nuclear missile.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-photo
fl-node-601b1209afb6f" data-node="601b1209afb6f">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-photo
uabb-photo-align-center
uabb-photo-mob-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="uabb-photo-content "> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/northrop-grumman-roy-innovation-center.jpg"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/northrop-grumman-roy-innovation-center.jpg"
alt="northrop-grumman-roy-innovation-center"
itemprop="image" class="lazyloaded"
data-ll-status="loaded" width="775"
height="581">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c39ad9cc5e feature-caption"
data-node="601c39ad9cc5e">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">Northrop Grumman's
Roy Innovation Center opened in 2020, with space
for 1,200 employees working on the GBSD missile.
(Elisabeth Eaves)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601b11f449c82" data-node="601b11f449c82">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>By August, 2020, Northrop Grumman’s new
three-story nerve center in Roy was nearly
complete and partially occupied, with a
#MASKUPGBSD sign taped to the door. In
September, to the surprise of no one in the
defense industry, the Air Force finally crowned
Northrop with the GBSD deal. The initial $13.3
billion contract covers 8.5 years, up to and
including testing the new weapon. Work will take
place in Roy and at the testing range in
Promontory, as well as in six other states.
Money will flow to hundreds of sub-contractors.
Ten thousand people will be directly employed.
Returns will accrue to the <a
href="https://www.dontbankonthebomb.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/2019_HOS_web.pdf">70-odd
financial institutions</a> that invest in
Northrop Grumman, and to the pensions, mutual
funds, and retirement accounts they control.</p>
<p>I asked Latiff to hypothesize on why the Air
Force was okay with a single-bid contract for
such an enormous undertaking. “The Air Force,
honestly, is not okay with it, but the Air Force
really didn’t have any choice,” he said. The
fact that it had no choice—at least not one that
wouldn’t subject the project to more political
scrutiny—speaks to a basic truth about the
publicly traded companies that sell enormous and
complex weapons systems to governments around
the world: In many ways, they’re more powerful
than the Pentagon.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5fff708c6b60f fl-col-small"
data-node="5fff708c6b60f">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601b1ef58795c" data-node="601b1ef58795c">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">Why buy milk when you
can afford a cow?</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-none
fl-node-601c39d11d818" data-node="601c39d11d818">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-full-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601c39d17387e"
data-node="601c39d17387e">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c39d173a80"
data-node="601c39d173a80">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c39cab8420 feature-caption"
data-node="601c39cab8420">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">Demonstration of
missileers arming switches at the deputy
commander's console and inserting the
commander's launch key at the Minuteman Missile
National Historic Site. (National Park Service)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-none
fl-node-5fff70a555a2f" data-node="5fff70a555a2f">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-fixed-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5fff70a555b85"
data-node="5fff70a555b85">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5fff70a555b87 fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="5fff70a555b87">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5fff70a555b88"
data-node="5fff70a555b88">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-heading
fl-node-601c53f97a1a6" data-node="601c53f97a1a6">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-heading-wrapper
uabb-heading-align-center ">
<h3 class="uabb-heading"> <span
class="uabb-heading-text">What could go wrong?</span>
</h3>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-5fff70a555b89 secondary-drop"
data-node="5fff70a555b89">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p>In the early 1970s, around the time Zane Zell
was bothering the fence around missile silo Papa
One on his farm, Bruce Blair was serving as a
missileer. He spent a harrowing night under the
wheat fields of Montana in the fall of 1973.
Israel and its Arab neighbors—client states of
the United States and the Soviet Union,
respectively—were at war. On October 24, Soviet
leader Leonid Brezhnev told US President Richard
Nixon his country might have to consider “taking
appropriate steps unilaterally” in the conflict.
On October 25, the United States put its nuclear
forces on alert. Sitting in a launch control
capsule, Blair and his crewmate received an
emergency message from the Pentagon, ordering
them to prepare to fire. “With a rush of
adrenalin, we opened our safe and retrieved the
launch keys and the codes needed to authenticate
a launch order, and strapped into our chairs to
brace for blast waves produced by incoming
Soviet nuclear warheads,” he later <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/premium/2020-01/loose-cannons-the-president-and-us-nuclear-posture/">wrote</a>.
They waited for the order to fire. Hundreds of
hours in launch simulators had conditioned them
to act immediately when it came.</p>
<p>Blair and his crewmate never got the order. The
crisis passed. It was likely the closest the two
countries had come to nuclear war since the
Cuban missile crisis in 1962. It was one of
multiple close calls and errors during the Cold
War that could have ended with hundreds of
thousands of people dead. In the 2000s, after
earning a doctorate in operations research and
spending years working on the academic side of
national security, Blair began campaigning to
get rid of nuclear weapons altogether,
co-founding the organization Global Zero. “There
wasn't really a morally driven or
philosophically driven change of heart,” he said
on the phone in May from his home in
Pennsylvania. “It was really just the
realization that we're not going to be able to
manage all the risks.” The more he learned, the
more he worried. “An extremely low-probability
event is eventually going to happen,” he said.
Today Global Zero counts not just politicians,
academics, and diplomats among its active
supporters, but retired military leaders, mostly
generals, from every country that has nuclear
weapons except North Korea, including the United
States, Russia, and China.</p>
<p>US President Dwight Eisenhower famously coined
the term “military-industrial complex” in his
1961 farewell speech, warning Americans to guard
against its “acquisition of unwarranted
influence.” They didn’t. In an earlier, less
famous speech, before he authorized the first
Minuteman program in 1955, Eisenhower said
“every gun that is made, every warship launched,
every rocket fired signifies, in the final
sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not
fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.”</p>
<p>Today, nuclear weapons are the food on the
table in too many cases. I asked Blair how to
get rid of a weapon so entrenched in people’s
livelihoods. “It’s a serious hurdle to
overcome,” he said. Blair passed away from a
stroke, at the age of 72, in July.</p>
<p>What if rural Montana could have high-quality
roads without the Air Force? What if a military
base weren’t the only route to a dignified
living? What if the range of choices available
to Americans wasn’t so narrow that building a
weapon of mass destruction can come to be seen
as an essential paycheck?</p>
<p>In our mental landscapes, a nuclear war and a
supervolcanic eruption understandably seem
similar. They would both kill masses, darken the
skies, and change life as we know it, and both
are unlikely to happen. But they are
fundamentally different. One of them, humans
build, and can dismantle.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-5fff70a555b8a fl-col-small
fl-visible-desktop-medium" data-node="5fff70a555b8a">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601c940404965"
data-node="601c940404965">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601c940404aff"
data-node="601c940404aff">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-uabb-photo
fl-node-601c940404854" data-node="601c940404854">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="uabb-module-content uabb-photo
uabb-photo-align-center
uabb-photo-mob-align-center" itemscope=""
itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="uabb-photo-content "> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/c-2-silo-fence.png"
target="_self" itemprop="url"> <source
type="image/webp">
<img
src="https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/c-2-silo-fence.png"
alt="c-2-silo-fence" itemprop="image"
class="lazyloaded" data-ll-status="loaded"
width="683" height="512">
</a> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601c9e1aa4b46 feature-caption"
data-node="601c9e1aa4b46">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p style="text-align: left;">A civilian's view of
Minuteman missile silo C-2, in central Montana.
(Elisabeth Eaves)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-none
fl-node-601f62389babe" data-node="601f62389babe">
<div class="fl-row-content-wrap">
<div class="fl-row-content fl-row-fixed-width fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-col-group fl-node-601f6298a2147"
data-node="601f6298a2147">
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601f6298a232a fl-col-small"
data-node="601f6298a232a">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"> </div>
</div>
<div class="fl-col fl-node-601f6298a232f"
data-node="601f6298a232f">
<div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text
fl-node-601f61686a8f0" data-node="601f61686a8f0">
<div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content">
<div class="fl-rich-text">
<p><a
href="https://thebulletin.org/biography/elisabeth-eaves"><strong>Elisabeth
Eaves</strong></a> is a contributing editor
for the <em>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.</em></p>
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<p>Learn more from the author at our public
virtual program on February 24.</p>
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<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/tag/gbsd/">GBSD</a>, <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/tag/icbm/">ICBM</a>, <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/tag/john-kyl/">John Kyl</a>,
<a href="https://thebulletin.org/tag/minuteman-iii/">Minuteman
III</a>, <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/tag/northrup-grumman/">Northrup
Grumman</a>, <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/tag/ground-based-strategic-deterrent-2/">ground-based
strategic deterrent</a>, <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/tag/intercontinental-ballistic-missile/">intercontinental
ballistic missile</a>, <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/tag/nuclear-modernization/">nuclear
modernization</a><br>
<strong>Topics:</strong> <a
href="https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-risk/nuclear-weapons/">Nuclear
Weapons</a></p>
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