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                <h1 class="css-19v093x">How Humanity Came To Contemplate
                  Its Possible Extinction: A Timeline</h1>
                <div class="css-1x1jxeu">
                  <div class="css-7kp13n">By</div>
                  <div class="css-7ol5x1"><span class="css-1q5ec3n">Thomas
                      Moynihan</span></div>
                  <div class="css-8rl9b7">thereader.mitpress.mit.edu</div>
                  <div class="css-zskk6u">13 min</div>
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                <div class="css-1890bmp"><span class="css-1neb7j1">View
                    Original</span></div>
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                          <div>It is only in the last couple of
                            centuries that we have begun to grasp that
                            our existence might one day cease to exist
                            forever.</div>
                          <figure>
                            <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_1">
                              <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fnew-lede-3-extinction-700x420.jpg"
                                  alt=""> </figure>
                            </div>
                            <figcaption>Today's attempts to measure and
                              mitigate existential threats are the
                              continuation of a project initiated over
                              two centuries ago. Image: MIT Press Reader</figcaption></figure>
                          <p>With Covid-19 afflicting the world, and a
                            climate crisis looming, humanity’s future
                            seems uncertain. While the novel coronavirus
                            does not itself pose a threat to the
                            continuation of the species, it has
                            undoubtedly stirred anxiety in many of us
                            and has even sparked discussion about human
                            extinction. Less and less does the end of
                            the species seem an area of lurid fantasy or
                            remote speculation.</p>
                          <p>Indeed, the opening decades of the 21<sup>st</sup>
                            century have seen investigation into
                            so-called ‘existential risks’ establish
                            itself as a growing field of rigorous
                            scientific inquiry. Whether designer
                            pathogen or malicious AI, we now recognize
                            many ways to die.</p>
                          <p>But when did people first start <em>actually
                              thinking</em> about human extinction?</p>
                          <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_2">
                            <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fnew-cover-x-risk.jpg"
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                          </div>
                          <p>The answer is: surprisingly recently. As
                            ideas go, the idea of the extinction of the
                            human species is a new one. It did not, and
                            could not, exist until a few centuries ago.</p>
                          <p>Of course, we humans have probably been
                            prophesying the end of the world since we
                            began talking and telling stories. However,
                            the modern idea of human extinction
                            distinguishes itself from the tradition of
                            apocalypse as it is found across cultures
                            and throughout history.</p>
                          <p>In the ancient mythologies you will not
                            find the idea of a physical universe
                            continuing, in its independent vastness, <em>after</em>
                            the annihilation of humans. Neither will you
                            find the idea of the end of the world as a
                            totally meaningless event. It is invariably
                            imbued with some moral significance or
                            revelatory lesson. Meaning and value lives
                            on in a spiritual afterlife, in
                            anthropomorphic gods, or an eventual rebirth
                            of creation.</p>
                          <blockquote> </blockquote>
                          <p>Only very recently in human history did
                            people realize that <em>Homo sapiens</em>,
                            and everything it finds meaningful, might
                            permanently disappear. Only recently did
                            people realize the physical universe could
                            continue — aimlessly — without us. However,
                            this was one of the most important
                            discoveries humans have ever made. It is
                            perhaps one of our crowning achievements.
                            Why? Because we can only become truly
                            responsible for ourselves when we fully
                            realize what is at stake. And, in realizing
                            that the entire fate of human value within
                            the physical universe may rest upon us, we
                            could finally begin to face up to what is at
                            stake in our actions and decisions upon this
                            planet. This is a discovery that humanity is
                            still learning the lessons of — no matter
                            how fallibly and falteringly.</p>
                          <p>Such a momentous understanding only came
                            after centuries of laborious inquiry within
                            science and philosophy. The timeline below
                            revisits some of the most important
                            milestones in this great, and ongoing,
                            drama.</p>
                          <hr>
                          <p><strong>c.75,000 BP</strong>: Toba
                            supervolcanic eruption rocks the planet.
                            Some evidence implies <em>Homo sapiens</em>
                            nearly goes extinct (though scientists
                            disagree on the details). Around the same
                            time, advanced human behavior and language
                            emerge: This kickstarts cumulative culture,
                            as recipes for technology begin to
                            accumulate across generations. An immense
                            journey begins…</p>
                          <h4>PHASE 1 (PREHISTORY–1600): INDESTRUCTIBLE
                            VALUE</h4>
                          <p><em>No clear distinction between ethics and
                              physics, so no true threat to the
                              existence of ethics in the physical
                              universe. Indestructibility of value. No
                              ability to think of a possible world
                              without minds.</em></p>
                          <p><strong>c.400 BC:</strong> Even though they
                            talk of great catastrophes and destroyed
                            worlds, ancient philosophers all believe
                            that nature does not leave eternally wasted
                            opportunities where things, or values, could
                            be but never are again. Whatever is lost in
                            nature will eventually return in time —
                            indestructibility of species, humanity, and
                            value.</p>
                          <p><strong>c.360 BC:</strong> Plato speaks of
                            cataclysms wiping away prior humanities, but
                            this is only part of eternal cycling return.
                            Permanent extinction is unthinkable.</p>
                          <p><strong>c.350 BC</strong>: Aristotle claims
                            that everything valuable and useful has
                            already been discovered. Everything knowable
                            and useful can be found in the ‘wisdom of
                            the ages.’ Precludes thinking on perils and
                            risks that have not previously been
                            recorded. Material conditions of mankind
                            cannot radically change, or fail.</p>
                          <p><strong>c.50 BC</strong>: Lucretius speaks
                            of humankind ‘perishing,’ but also asserts
                            that nothing is ever truly destroyed in
                            nature, and that time eventually replenishes
                            all losses. Our world may die, but it will
                            eventually be remade.</p>
                          <div>
                            <figure>
                              <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_3">
                                <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fal-ghazali.jpg"
                                    alt=""> </figure>
                              </div>
                              <figcaption>Around 1100, Persian
                                theologian Abu Hamid Al-Ghazâlî
                                developed ways of talking about
                                possibilities in terms of logical
                                coherence rather than prior experience.</figcaption></figure>
                          </div>
                          <p><strong>c.1100</strong> <strong>AD</strong>:
                            Persian theologian Al-Ghazâlî develops ways
                            of talking about possibilities in terms of
                            their logical coherence rather than
                            availability to prior experience — crucial
                            to all later thinking on risks previously
                            never experienced.</p>
                          <p><strong>c.1200</strong>: Hindu-Arabic
                            numeral system introduced to Europe, later
                            allowing computation of large timespans that
                            will be instrumental in discovery of the
                            depth (rather than eternity) of past and
                            future time.</p>
                          <p><strong>c.1300</strong>: Islamic and
                            Christian philosophers invent logical
                            possibility as a way of thinking about the
                            ways God could have created the world
                            differently than it actually is. Theologians
                            like William of Ockham conduct first thought
                            experiments on a possible world without any
                            human minds. Still, God would never manifest
                            such a world, they believe.</p>
                          <p><strong>1350</strong>: Black death kills up
                            to 200 million people in Europe and North
                            Africa. Around 60 percent of Europe’s
                            population perishes.</p>
                          <p><strong>1564</strong>: Using new logical
                            conceptions of possibility, Gerolamo Cardano
                            inaugurates the science of probability by
                            thinking of each dice throw as the
                            expression of a wider, abstract space of
                            possibilities.</p>
                          <figure>
                            <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_4">
                              <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fplurality-of-worlds.jpg"
                                  alt=""> </figure>
                            </div>
                            <figcaption>Bernard le Bovier de Fontenelle.
                              Front piece for “Conversations on the
                              Plurality of Worlds,” 1686.</figcaption></figure>
                          <hr>
                          <h4>PHASE 2 (1600–1800): COSMIC NONCHALANCE</h4>
                          <p><em>Modern physics implies that ours is one
                              planet among many, but it is generally
                              presumed that the universe is habitable
                              and filled with humanoids. For every
                              populated planet destroyed, another grows.
                              Species cannot die. Indestructibility of
                              value continues. Inability to recognize
                              existential stakes.</em></p>
                          <p><strong>1600s</strong>: Copernican
                            Revolution gains momentum. Growing
                            acceptance, following supernova sightings,
                            that planets and suns can be destroyed. But
                            from stars to species, nothing can be lost:
                            It will regrow again elsewhere.</p>
                          <p><strong>1680s</strong>: Breaking with
                            orthodoxy, Robert Hooke and Edmond Halley
                            controversially endorse the idea of
                            prehistoric extinctions caused by massive
                            geological cataclysms. Such conjectures
                            remain fringe, however.</p>
                          <p><strong>1705:</strong> Following Leibniz
                            and Newton’s invention of calculus,
                            long-term prediction of nature becomes
                            feasible. Halley predicts the return of his
                            comet.</p>
                          <p><strong>172</strong>1: Population science
                            takes hold: People start thinking of <em>Homo
                              sapiens</em> as a global aggregate. Baron
                            de Montesquieu writes of humanity expiring
                            due to infertility.</p>
                          <p><strong>1740s</strong>: Reports of behemoth
                            fossil remains found in Siberia and America
                            begin to interest, and confuse, naturalists.
                            Could these be extinct beasts?</p>
                          <p><strong>1750s</strong>: Speculations on
                            human extinction, as a naturalistic
                            possibility, begin to emerge. Yet many
                            remain confident that humans would simply
                            re-evolve on Earth.</p>
                          <p><strong>1755</strong>: Lisbon Earthquake
                            shocks Europe. Influential geologist Georges
                            Buffon accepts prehistoric species
                            extinctions, ponders on which animals will
                            inherit the Earth after we are gone.</p>
                          <p><strong>1758:</strong> Linnaeus adds genus
                            <em>Homo</em> to his taxonomy. Halley’s
                            comet returns, confirming his prediction.</p>
                          <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_5">
                            <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Flalande.jpg"
                                alt=""> </figure>
                          </div>
                          <p><strong>1763</strong>: Thomas Bayes’s
                            revolutionary work on probability is
                            published, providing rules for thinking
                            about probabilities of events prior to any
                            trials. Proves essential to later thinking
                            on risks beyond precedent.</p>
                          <p><strong>1770s</strong>: First declarations
                            that <em>Homo sapiens</em> may be specific
                            and unique to the Earth, and thus contingent
                            upon the planet’s particular conditions.
                            Baron d’Holbach writes that, if Earth were
                            destroyed, our species would irreversibly
                            disappear with it.</p>
                          <p><strong>1773</strong>: Probability theory
                            applied to issues of global catastrophic
                            risk: Joseph Lalande computes likelihood of
                            Earth being hit by a comet intersecting our
                            orbit.</p>
                          <p><strong>1778</strong>: Georges Buffon
                            provides first experimental calculations of
                            the window of planetary habitability, argues
                            that eventually Earth will become
                            irreversibly uninhabitable.</p>
                          <p><strong>1781</strong>: Enlightenment
                            philosophy culminates in Kant’s critique of
                            the way we bias and distort our objective
                            theories with our moral prejudices. We may <em>like</em>
                            the idea that the amount of value is
                            constant in the universe, and that valuable
                            things cannot irreversibly be destroyed, but
                            that doesn’t mean it is <em>true</em>.</p>
                          <figure>
                            <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_6">
                              <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fbiela-comet-700x328.jpg"
                                  alt=""> </figure>
                            </div>
                            <figcaption>In the 1830s, Biela’s comet (the
                              third short-period comet discovered after
                              Halley’s and Encke’s) became an object of
                              concern when it was realized that its
                              orbit intersected with Earth’s. Image:
                              Wikimedia Commons</figcaption></figure>
                          <p><strong>1790s</strong>: Deep time and
                            prehistoric extinctions accepted as
                            scientific consensus. Modern paleontology
                            and geology are born. They unveil a
                            radically nonhuman past. Georges Cuvier
                            theorizes our planet has been wracked by
                            many catastrophes throughout its past,
                            wiping out scores of creatures.</p>
                          <p><strong>1796</strong>: First notions of
                            long-term human potential — to alter
                            material conditions and alleviate suffering
                            — begin to come together in the work of
                            (e.g.) Condorcet. Meanwhile, Marquis de Sade
                            becomes the first proponent of voluntary
                            human extinction. Pierre-Simon Laplace says
                            that the probability of a cometary collision
                            is low but will ‘accumulate’ over long
                            periods of time. He remains confident that
                            civilization would re-emerge and be
                            replayed, however.</p>
                          <p><strong>1800:</strong> By the century’s
                            close, George Cuvier has identified 23
                            extinct prehistoric species.</p>
                          <figure>
                            <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_7">
                              <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Ffossil-700x505.jpg"
                                  alt=""> </figure>
                            </div>
                            <figcaption>The first anatomically
                              reconstructed depiction of an prehistoric
                              fossil skeleton (a megatherium),
                              accomplished by Jean Bautista Bru in 1793.
                              Image from Annales du Muséum national
                              d’histoire naturelle (1804), Biodiversity
                              Heritage Library.</figcaption></figure>
                          <hr>
                          <h4>PHASE 3 (1800–1950): COSMIC LONELINESS</h4>
                          <p><em>Growing recognition that the entire
                              universe may not be maximally habitable
                              nor inhabited. Cosmic default is hostility
                              to life and value. Many accept human
                              extinction as irreversible and plausible —
                              but not yet a pressing probability.</em></p>
                          <p><strong>1805</strong>: Jean-Baptiste
                            François Xavier Cousin De Grainville writes
                            first fiction on “The Last Man.” He then
                            kills himself.</p>
                          <p><strong>1810s</strong>: Human extinction
                            first becomes a topic in popular culture and
                            popular fiction. People start more clearly
                            regarding it as a moral tragedy. Value
                            begins to seem insecure in the universe, not
                            indestructible.</p>
                          <p><strong>1812:</strong> Scientists claim the
                            Mars-Jupiter asteroid belt is the ruins of a
                            shattered planet. Joseph-Louis Lagrange
                            attempts to precisely compute the exact
                            explosive force required.</p>
                          <p><strong>1815</strong>: Eruption of Mount
                            Tambora causes famine in China and Europe
                            and triggers cholera outbreak in Bengal.
                            Volcanic dust in the atmosphere nearly blots
                            out the sun; the perturbation provokes
                            visions of biosphere collapse.</p>
                          <p><strong>1826</strong>: Mary Shelley’s “The
                            Last Man,” depicting humanity perishing due
                            to a global pandemic. First proper depiction
                            of an existential catastrophe where nonhuman
                            ecosystems continue after demise of
                            humanity: Our end is not the end of the
                            world.</p>
                          <figure>
                            <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_8">
                              <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fempty-700x483.jpg"
                                  alt=""> </figure>
                            </div>
                            <figcaption>With increases in telescopic
                              power, people soon faced up to the
                              terrifying magnitude—and emptiness–of
                              space. Image: A drawing of the Whirlpool
                              Galaxy, by Lord Rosse, mid-19th century.</figcaption></figure>
                          <p><strong>1830s:</strong> Proposing
                            catastrophes as explanations in astrophysics
                            and geophysics falls into disrepute, the
                            argument that the cosmos is a stable and
                            steady system wins the day, this obstructs
                            inquiry into large-scale cataclysms for over
                            a century.</p>
                          <p><strong>1844</strong>: Reacting to Thomas
                            Malthus’s theories of overpopulation, Prince
                            Vladimir Odoevsky provides first speculation
                            on omnicide (i.e. human extinction caused by
                            human action). He imagines our species
                            explosively committing suicide after
                            resource exhaustion and population explosion
                            cause civilization’s collapse. Odoevsky also
                            provides first visions of human economy
                            going off-world in order to stave off such
                            outcomes.</p>
                          <p><strong>c.1850:</strong> Large reflecting
                            telescopes reveal deep space as mostly empty
                            and utterly alien. Artistic depictions of
                            Earth from space begin to evince a sense of
                            cosmic loneliness.</p>
                          <p><strong>1859</strong>: Darwin’s “The Origin
                            of Species” published. Progressivist
                            tendencies in early evolutionary theory fuel
                            confidence in human adaptiveness and
                            inexorable improvement. Fears of extinction
                            are eclipsed by fears of degeneration.</p>
                          <figure>
                            <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_9">
                              <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fsized-Kupka-La-Chapelle-ILN-1909-700x520.jpg"
                                  alt=""> </figure>
                            </div>
                            <figcaption>Reconstruction of the La
                              Chapelle-aux-Saints Neanderthal by the
                              Czech artist Frantizek Kupka. Published in
                              The Illustrated London News, February 27,
                              1909</figcaption></figure>
                          <p><strong>1863:</strong> William King
                            hypothesizes that fossil remains found in
                            Neander valley represent an extinct species
                            of the genus Homo. The ‘Neanderthal man’
                            becomes first extinct hominin species to be
                            recognized.</p>
                          <p><strong>1865</strong>: Rudolf Clausius
                            names ‘entropy’ and theorizes the universe’s
                            heat death. Despite provoking gloomy visions
                            from writers like Henry Adams and Oswald
                            Spengler, it seems far off enough to not be
                            pressing.</p>
                          <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_10">
                            <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fcommon-task-700x567.png"
                                alt=""> </figure>
                          </div>
                          <p><strong>1890s</strong>: Russian Cosmism
                            launched with the first writings of Fedorov
                            and Tsiolkovsky, making clear the stakes of
                            extinction: They both realize that the only
                            route to long-term survival is leaving
                            Earth. First calls to escape X-risk by
                            securing humanity’s foothold in the wider
                            cosmos.</p>
                          <p><strong>1895</strong>: Tsiolkovsky provides
                            first vision of a Dyson sphere: a
                            sun-girdling sphere that allows full
                            harnessing of solar energy. Suggests
                            mega-scale restructuring of the Solar System
                            in order to further secure human
                            civilization and ensure its long-term
                            future.</p>
                          <p><strong>1918</strong>: Great War provokes
                            many intellectuals (including Winston
                            Churchill) to ponder omnicide, but still a
                            remote possibility. Physicists begin to
                            realize how stringent and rare the
                            conditions of habitability may be. Yet
                            belief in humanoids inevitably re-evolving
                            remains high.</p>
                          <p><strong>c.1930</strong>: J.B.S. Haldane and
                            J.D. Bernal provide first coherent synthesis
                            of ideas regarding long-term potential,
                            existential risk, space colonization,
                            astroengineering, transhumanism,
                            bioenhancement, and civilizational pitfalls.
                            Haldane notes that if civilization
                            collapses, yet humanity survives, there is
                            no guarantee advanced civilization would
                            re-evolve.</p>
                          <p><strong>1937</strong>: Olaf Stapledon
                            further synthesizes these ideas into a
                            comparative study of omnicide in his
                            awe-inspiring “Star Maker.”</p>
                          <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_11">
                            <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2FWW1-700x544.jpg"
                                alt=""> </figure>
                          </div>
                          <hr>
                          <h4>PHASE 4 (~1950–PRESENT): ASTRONOMICAL
                            VALUE</h4>
                          <p><em>Nuclear weapons, for the first time,
                              make extinction a policy issue. It shifts
                              from speculative possibility to pressing
                              plausibility. Anthropogenic risks come to
                              fore. Birth of internet gives critical
                              mass to previously disparate communities.
                              Finally, a rigorous framework for thinking
                              analytically about X-risk is developed
                              around the millennium.</em></p>
                          <p><strong>1942:</strong> Edward Teller fears
                            that a nuclear fission bomb could plausibly
                            ignite the atmosphere of the Earth and
                            destroy all life. Development of the bomb
                            goes ahead regardless, even though
                            scientists later concluded more research was
                            needed to ascertain that this
                            biosphere-annihilating event would
                            definitely not occur.</p>
                          <p><strong>1945</strong>: Hiroshima and
                            Nagasaki. Atom bomb changes how we relate to
                            intelligence’s place in the cosmos. Faith in
                            inevitable progress takes a battering.
                            Rather than recurrent and omniprevalent
                            owing to its adaptiveness, technological
                            intelligence comes to be considered as
                            potentially rare and even maladaptive.</p>
                          <div>
                            <figure>
                              <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_12">
                                <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2F1950hiroshimausacover.jpeg"
                                    alt=""> </figure>
                              </div>
                              <figcaption>“Hiroshima, U.S.A.: Can
                                Anything be Done About It?” A 1950 cover
                                of Collier’s magazine, with a painting
                                by artist and astronomer Chesley
                                Bonestell.</figcaption></figure>
                          </div>
                          <p><strong>1950</strong>: Leó Szilárd suggests
                            the feasibility of a planet-killing ‘cobalt
                            bomb.’ Enrico Fermi articulates the most
                            significant riddle of modern science, the
                            Fermi Paradox. Catastrophism begins to
                            reassert itself, with scientists asking
                            whether supernovas caused past mass
                            extinctions.</p>
                          <p><strong>1950s</strong>: The modern field of
                            AI research begins in earnest.</p>
                          <p><strong>1960s</strong>: Initial SETI
                            projects return only ominous silence.
                            Biologists begin to insist that humanoids
                            would not necessarily evolve on other
                            planets. Dolphin research suggests
                            alternative models of intelligence.
                            Technological civilization appears
                            increasingly contingent, heightening the
                            perceived severity of X-risk.</p>
                          <p><strong>1962</strong>: Rachel Carson’s book
                            “Silent Spring” raises the alarm on climate
                            catastrophe.</p>
                          <p><strong>1965</strong>: I.J. Good speculates
                            that an AI could recursively improve itself
                            and thus trigger a runaway ‘intelligence
                            explosion,’ leaving us far behind. It will
                            be our ‘last invention,’ he muses.</p>
                          <p><strong>Late 1960s</strong>: Fears of
                            overpopulation reassert themselves in
                            neo-Malthusianism. Growing discussion that
                            space colonization is the only long-term
                            guarantee for human flourishing and
                            survival. In line with this, scientists like
                            Freeman Dyson propose largescale
                            astroengineering as a method to further
                            entrench and fortify the foothold of
                            intelligence within the universe.</p>
                          <p><strong>1969</strong>: First crewed mission
                            lands on the moon.</p>
                          <div class="RIL_IMG" id="RIL_IMG_13">
                            <figure> <img
src="https://pocket-image-cache.com//filters:no_upscale()/https%3A%2F%2Fthereader.mitpress.mit.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F09%2Fend-of-the-world.jpg"
                                alt=""> </figure>
                          </div>
                          <p><strong>1973</strong>: Brandon Carter
                            articulates the Anthropic Principle. Goes on
                            to derive the Doomsday Argument from it,
                            which uses Bayesian probability to estimate
                            how many generations of humans are likely to
                            yet be born.</p>
                          <p><strong>1980s:</strong> Bayesian methods
                            vindicated in statistics. Luis and Walter
                            Alvarez report findings that lead to
                            consensus that an asteroid or comet killed
                            the dinosaurs. Through this, catastrophism
                            is vindicated: astronomical disasters <em>can</em>
                            significantly affect (and threaten)
                            terrestrial life.</p>
                          <p><strong>1982:</strong> Jonathan Schell pens
                            “The Fate of the Earth,” stressing nuclear
                            threat and the moral significance of the
                            foreclosure of humanity’s entire future.</p>
                          <p><strong>1984</strong>: Derek Parfit
                            publishes “Reasons and Persons.” Population
                            ethics clarifies the unique moral severity
                            of total human extinction.</p>
                          <p><strong>1986</strong>: A year after a hole
                            in the ozone layer is discovered in
                            Antarctica, Eric Drexler publishes “Engines
                            of Creation,” hinting to X-risks from
                            nanotech.</p>
                          <p><strong>1989</strong>: Stephen Jay Gould
                            publishes “Wonderful Life,” insisting that
                            humanoid intelligence is not the inevitable
                            result of evolution. In his “Imperative of
                            Responsibility,” Hans Jonas demands a ‘new
                            ethics of responsibility for the distant
                            future.’</p>
                          <p><strong>1990s</strong>: NASA tasked with
                            tracking threats from asteroids and
                            near-Earth objects. Internet allows
                            convergence of disparate communities
                            concerned about transhumanism, extropianism,
                            longtermism, etc.</p>
                          <p><strong>1996</strong>: John Leslie
                            publishes “The End of the World: The Science
                            and Ethics of Human Extinction.” Landmark
                            text meticulously studying Carter’s Doomsday
                            Argument.</p>
                          <p><strong>2000:</strong> Marvin Minsky
                            suggests that an AI tasked with solving the
                            Riemann Hypothesis might unwittingly
                            exterminate humanity by converting us, and
                            all available matter in the Solar System,
                            into ‘computronium’ so that it has the
                            resources for the task.</p>
                          <p><strong>2002</strong>: Nick Bostrom
                            introduces the term ‘existential risk.’</p>
                          <p><strong>2010s</strong>: Deep learning takes
                            off, triggering another boom in AI research
                            and development.</p>
                          <p><strong>2012</strong>: Researchers engineer
                            artificial strains of H5N1 virus that are
                            both highly lethal and highly virulent.</p>
                          <p><strong>2013:</strong> CRISPR-Cas9 first
                            utilized for genome editing.</p>
                          <p><strong>2018</strong>: IPCC special report
                            on the catastrophic impact of global warming
                            of 1.5ºC published.</p>
                          <p><strong>2020:</strong> Toby Ord publishes
                            “The Precipice.” Covid-19 pandemic sweeps
                            the globe, demonstrating systemic weakness
                            and unpreparedness for global risks.</p>
                        </div>
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