[D66] NATO under the Command of the Fourth International: A Hypothetical Essay

[René Oudeweg]

Below is a speculative / hypothetical essay in academic style, imagining 
a world in which NATO is placed under the command of the Trotskyist 
Fourth International. The essay examines possible rationales, 
mechanisms, transformations, challenges, and contradictions, drawing on 
academic literature on NATO, Trotskyism and international organisations. 
Of course this scenario is fictional, but grounded in real theory and 
empirical studies.

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## NATO under the Command of the Fourth International: A Hypothetical Essay

### Introduction

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has, since its creation in 
1949, functioned as a collective defence alliance among 
capitalist-democratic states, primarily in North America and Europe. Its 
purposes have been deterrence, mutual defence, crisis management, and 
more recently also broader security governance (including out-of-area 
operations, cyber-security, etc.). This essay imagines a radical 
transformation: the Trotskyist Fourth International (FI) assumes command 
over NATO. We explore (1) how this might come about, (2) what 
transformations would happen in structure, strategy, and ideology; (3) 
what conflicts or contradictions would emerge; and (4) what global 
consequences might follow. The essay draws on the academic literature on 
NATO’s institutional structure and evolving role (e.g. Holmberg 2011; 
Breitenbauch 2024) and on Trotskyist theory and the history and 
principles of the Fourth International (e.g. works by Trotsky, 
historical studies, documents of the FI).

### Background: NATO and the Fourth International

#### NATO

NATO is well studied as more than a purely military alliance; its 
legitimacy, decision‐making, institutional design, and its evolving 
role—including its increasing involvement in “security governance” 
beyond conventional defence—have been analyzed in recent years. Holmberg 
(2011) discusses the changing role of NATO in terms of its shifting from 
pure defence to also security organization. ([Taylor & Francis 
Online][1]) Breitenbauch (2024) considers NATO as “a military OECD” in 
the sense that it provides strategic epistemic capital and governance 
among its members under conditions of strategic competition. 
([Brill][2]) Charlotte Wagnsson (2011) shows how NATO under its 
Strategic Concept debate can take roles such as “fire-fighter” or 
“seminar leader”, in effect broadening its remit. ([SAGE Journals][3])

#### The Fourth International

The Fourth International (founded 1938; post‐reunification versions 
existing from 1963 onwards) is the Trotskyist international organisation 
committed to revolutionary socialism, permanent revolution, 
internationalism, and the self-emancipation of the working class. 
([Encyclopedia Britannica][4]) It has historically opposed imperialism, 
capitalist war, and counterposed itself to both reformist kinds of 
socialism and Stalinist states. ([World Socialist Web Site][5])

### Mechanism: How Could the FI Command NATO?

For the Fourth International to gain command of NATO in this 
hypothetical, several unlikely but not logically impossible mechanisms 
might converge:

1. **Revolutionary shift in member states**: if a number of NATO member 
states undergo socialist revolutions or Trotskyist‐led transitions, with 
these states retaining membership in NATO (or reinterpreting their 
commitments), they might push for the transformation of NATO’s command 
structures.

2. **Internal infiltration / ideological cadre growth**: the FI could 
build influence inside military, political, and civilian institutions in 
NATO states—officers, diplomats, parties—so that key posts are held by 
Trotskyist or sympathetic individuals.

3. **Crisis and breakdown of capitalist order**: a major global 
crisis—economic collapse, environmental catastrophe, mass popular 
insurgency—could delegitimise existing leaderships, leading to a search 
for alternatives. In such circumstances, the FI could present itself as 
offering both order and internationalist, anti‐imperialist legitimacy.

4. **Legal restructuring**: formal treaties or amendments to the 
Washington Treaty may be pushed through, redefining command authority, 
strategic priorities, etc., under influence from FI‐led governments or 
coalitions.

### What Transformations Would Occur?

If NATO were under the command of the Fourth International, we would 
expect large transformations—both in strategy and structure—but also 
deep contradictions.

#### Ideological & Strategic Reorientation

* **From capitalist defence to proletarian revolution**: NATO’s stated 
purpose of defending capitalist democracies would be reinterpreted as 
defending international working class interests. The FI doctrine of 
*permanent revolution* might push NATO to support revolutionary 
movements worldwide, not simply defence of member territory.

* **Anti‐imperialist posture**: Instead of NATO being seen as a bulwark 
against Soviet or Russian influence (or other external “threats”), under 
FI it might aggressively oppose what it perceives as imperialism from 
any bloc—including from the USA, EU, or China.

* **Disarmament, arms conversion**: Trotskyism traditionally calls for 
disarming vast sections of the capitalist military apparatus, or 
converting military industries to civilian production. NATO under FI 
command might significantly reduce certain arms programmes, redirect 
resources to social welfare or socialist economic uses.

* **New concept of security**: Security would not only mean national 
borders but emancipation from exploitation, class oppression, and 
socio-economic inequality. Issues like climate crisis, health, housing 
might become “security issues.”

#### Institutional Structure

* **Command chain changes**: The Supreme Allied Commander Europe 
(SACEUR) or its equivalent might be replaced or subordinated to bodies 
under FI oversight. Decision‐making bodies (the North Atlantic Council) 
might be reorganized to include representation of labour, revolutionary 
parties, worker councils, etc.

* **Democratic control**: FI doctrine emphasizes democratic centralism 
and workers’ self‐organisation. NATO’s military command might be 
transformed to include elected soldiers’ committees or councils, 
partially removing the separation between civilian/political and military.

* **Financing reallocation**: Member contributions would be 
restructured—heavy investment in conventional military might replaced 
with funding for social infrastructure, revolution support, perhaps 
peacekeeping with radical aims.

#### Operational Changes

* **Intervention strategy**: NATO interventions abroad would likely 
shift from strategic-targeted missile defence or power-projection bent, 
to interventions in support of proletarian uprisings, anti‐imperialist 
struggles.

* **Expanded international solidarity operations**: NATO under FI might 
engage in logistical, political, even military support for movements in 
Global South struggling against colonial legacies or neo‐imperialism.

* **Demilitarization or neutralization of blocs**: NATO might propose 
the dissolution of military blocs or elimination of warheads, in line 
with FI’s anti‐militarist logic, but constrained by member resistance.

### Contradictions and Challenges

Despite transformative potential, placing NATO under FI command would 
produce many internal and external contradictions.

* **Capitalist institutions, private interests**: Many member states’ 
economies, elites, and military‐industrial complexes rely on capitalist 
accumulation. These would resist radical transformation. The FI’s 
program could lead to state capture, counter‐revolution, or outright 
sabotage.

* **Legitimacy & popular support**: In many NATO countries, public 
opinion supports national defence, liberal democracy, and capitalist 
property. Trotskyist policies could lack legitimacy among middle 
classes, conservative sectors, etc.

* **International relations and geopolitical antagonism**: Other 
powerful states (Russia, China) would respond, possibly with escalation. 
NATO under FI might face isolation, embargo, or war from states that see 
such ideology as threatening.

* **Bureaucratic inertia & organizational complexity**: NATO is a large, 
complex bureaucratic and military organisation. Reorienting its chain of 
command, doctrine, and logistics would be difficult in practice; member 
states might only partially cooperate.

* **Ideological purity vs pragmatism**: FI’s revolutionary socialism 
could come into friction with the necessities of statecraft, diplomacy, 
intelligence, alliances. Compromises may dilute revolutionary aims.

### Global Consequences

Some imaginable outcomes of such a transformation include:

* **Polarization of international system**: With NATO turned into a 
revolutionary alliance, the global order might bifurcate more sharply: 
perhaps a divide between revolutionary socialist blocs and capitalist ones.

* **Spread of socialist revolution**: FI may channel substantial 
resources into supporting socialist movements worldwide, which could 
lead to successful revolutions or harsh repression, depending on local 
conditions.

* **Shift in global norms**: Concepts like human rights, democracy, 
international law might be reinterpreted under socialist logics; new 
norms of global solidarity, anti‐imperialism, class justice might emerge.

* **Risk of warfare**: Elevated ideological conflict could increase the 
risk of militarized clashes, proxy wars, or even major wars, especially 
if capitalist major powers resist FI’s initiatives.

### Comparison with Academic Theories of NATO

This hypothetical aligns in some respects with what scholars identify as 
latent potentials in NATO’s evolving role, and conflict with 
foundational constraints.

* Holmberg (2011) notes that NATO is increasingly taking on “security 
governance” roles beyond pure military defence. Under FI, that trend 
would amplify, but reoriented ideologically. ([Taylor & Francis Online][1])

* Breitenbauch (2024) argues that NATO supplies “epistemic capital” to 
its members and plays a role analogous to a military OECD in governance. 
Under FI command, this epistemic governance could be used to propagate 
Trotskyist doctrine among member states. ([Brill][2])

* The legal‐institutional analysis in the recent *Research Handbook on 
NATO* (Mayer, ed., 2023) provides insight into how institutional design 
and decision‐making constrain radical changes. Transforming 
decision‐making bodies, treaty obligations, etc., would face both legal 
and political obstacles. ([Elgar Online][6])

### Conclusion

Placing NATO under the command of the Trotskyist Fourth International is 
an extreme hypothetical scenario. It would require revolutionary shifts 
in many NATO member states, profound change in ideology, institutions, 
and strategy. While this would enable bold initiatives in 
internationalism, anti‐imperialist solidarity, and redefinition of 
security, the path would be fraught with resistance, internal 
contradiction, and danger of geopolitical backlash. The existing 
literature on NATO’s evolving legitimacy, governance, and institutional 
design suggests that although change is possible, radical 
transformations will clash with entrenched institutions and interests.

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If you like, I could expand this into a full paper outline with sections 
and references, or simulate one such revolution in a particular state as 
case study. Do you want me to do that?

[1]: 
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09662839.2011.625929?utm_source=chatgpt.com 
"The changing role of NATO: exploring the implications for security 
governance and legitimacy: European Security: Vol 20, No 4"
[2]: 
https://brill.com/view/journals/gg/30/2/article-p288_9.xml?utm_source=chatgpt.com 
"NATO as a Military OECD in: Global Governance: A Review of 
Multilateralism and International Organizations Volume 30 Issue 2 (2024)"
[3]: 
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010836711422470?utm_source=chatgpt.com 
"NATO’s role in the Strategic Concept debate: Watchdog, fire-fighter, 
neighbour or seminar leader? - Charlotte Wagnsson, 2011"
[4]: 
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fourth-International?utm_source=chatgpt.com 
"Fourth International | Workers’ Rights, Socialism & Communism | Britannica"
[5]: 
https://www.wsws.org/en/special/pages/icfi/history.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com 
"History of the Fourth International"
[6]: 
https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781839103391/front-3.xml?utm_source=chatgpt.com 
"Contents in: Research Handbook on NATO"