[D66] U.S. Issues 'Do Not Travel' Advisory for Lebanon: Situation Report

[René Oudeweg]

[Herinner dat de (mogelijke false-flag) aanslag op de Golanhoogte op de 
Druzen hiertoe aanleiding waren en de daarop volgende liquidatie van de 
Hezbollah leider. Major war? /RO]

globalguardian.com
U.S. Issues 'Do Not Travel' Advisory for Lebanon: Situation Report
Global Guardian Team
3–4 minutes

On 31 July, the U.S. State Department issued a Level 4 Travel Advisory 
for Lebanon, advising citizens not to travel to the country amid 
increasing tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. The warning 
comes after Israel allegedly assassinated Hamas' political leader in a 
supposedly hardened apartment in Tehran, Iran. The Tehran strike itself 
comes a day after Israel eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander in 
southern Beirut in a targeted airstrike. All eyes are on Iran to see how 
it chooses to respond. The recent events have also triggered flight 
disruptions in the region.

     United Airlines, Delta, and British Airways have canceled flights 
to and from Israel's Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) starting on 
01 August and running through at least 06 August. Other airlines are 
likely to cancel flights.

     The U.S. State Department Level 4 Advisory urges Americans not to 
travel to Lebanon, and urges anyone in southern Lebanon to depart as 
soon as possible. This includes all parts south of the city of Saida, 
including inland areas.

     The Israeli strikes come after Hezbollah hit a soccer field last 
week, killing nine children and prompting condemnation. It is possible 
the attack was a mistake or miscalculation.

     Multiple countries continue to urge their citizens to leave Lebanon 
and avoid travel to Israel unless necessary.

     The Iranian response could take several days to formulate as they 
coordinate with proxy groups across the region.

Analysis

     Iran's Supreme Leader issued orders for a direct strike on Israel 
in retaliation for the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran. This was an 
expected declaration and also allows Israel and its allies to prepare.
     Iran's response in April was to launch some 300 drones and missiles 
toward Israel in a relatively telegraphed barrage meant to signal to 
Israel that attacks on Iranian sovereign soil will provoke a direct 
response.

         A similar response can be expected, but given the Israeli 
strike on Hamas' political leader happened in Iran's capital, a more 
robust response is possible.

Recommendations

     Avoid all travel to Lebanon.
     Avoid unnecessary travel to Israel due to risks of additional 
flight cancellations and possible stranding.
     Continue to avoid non-essential travel to Israel and the broader 
Middle East as the situation continues to evolve.

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