[D66] Global ecological disaster predicted in next 50 years (2005)

[R.O.]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC556105/
BMJ. 2005 Apr 9; 330(7495): 809.
doi: 10.1136/bmj.330.7495.809-b
PMCID: PMC556105
PMID: 15817544

Global ecological disaster predicted in next 50 years
Owen Dyer

Humanity is heading for ecological disaster if instead of foreseeing and 
preventing environmental degradation we just react to it. This is the 
conclusion of a United Nations report compiled by 1300 leading 
scientists from 95 countries.

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report previews the 
ecological state of the world in 2050. It lists 24 essential “ecosystem 
services,” such as timber, clean air, and fresh water, and finds that 
60% of them are being degraded or used unsustainably.

This degradation obstructs the UN Millennium Development Goals, set in 
2000, the most ambitious of which was a halving of the world's 
population existing on less than a $1 (£0.53; €0.78) a day or threatened 
by hunger or lack of clean water. Among the gravest threats to the 
environment are excessive “nutrient loading” from agricultural 
fertilisers and the progressive disappearance of biodiversity. The 
extinction rate of species is already a thousand times higher than the 
average rate shown by the fossil record and is set to increase 10-fold 
in the next 50 years.

“Humans are fundamentally and to a significant extent irreversibly 
changing the diversity of life on earth,” says the report, noting that 
this could harm pharmaceutical research and development.

The scientists warn of possible “accelerating, abrupt, and potentially 
irreversible changes.” These include the collapse of fish stocks, such 
as North Sea cod; rapid growth of marine algae, creating oxygen depleted 
dead zones in the sea; and emergence of disease.​disease.

In Africa, growing pressure on water supplies combined with regional 
climate change has the potential to greatly enlarge the areas in which 
cholera is a threat. The range of malaria bearing mosquitoes is also 
likely to increase.

The release of carbon into the atmosphere and the leaching of nitrogen 
based fertilisers into water pose serious risks for chronic disease, the 
report finds. Increases in ultraviolet B radiation, ozone and other air 
pollution, and pollen production are also predicted.

The report gives four sets of predictions for 2050, based on the 
approach currently adopted to counter ecosystem degradation. “The 
scenario we are closest to now is the one we call order from strength,” 
said Dr Reid. This describes a world in which international cooperation 
is lacking, economic competition is fierce, and environmental threats 
are faced only after they emerge. This is likely to deliver the fastest 
population growth, the lowest economic growth, and the most 
environmental damage of the four scenarios, he said.


The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report is available at 
www.millenniumassessment.org//en/Products.Synthesis.aspx.