[D66] 2020 began with the hottest January in recorded history

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2020 began with the hottest January in recorded history
By Philip Guelpa
26 February 2020

The Earth just experienced its hottest January in recorded history, as 
reported by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Both 
land and ocean temperatures exceeded all records for the last 141 years. 
The readings were 1.13 degrees Celsius (2.05 degrees Fahrenheit) above 
the 20th century mean. This is no aberration; the four hottest Januarys 
have all taken place since 2016, and the 10 hottest all occurred since 2002.

For the year as a whole, 2019 was the second hottest on record after 
2016. Temperatures were more than 0.6 degrees Celsius (1 degree 
Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average, according to Copernicus 
Climate Change Service. Based on this trend, 2020 is likely to be among 
the five hottest on record. Scientists have warned that an increase of 2 
degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial mean will have catastrophic 
consequences, including massive flooding, drought, wildfires and crop 
failures.
Spatial distribution of the direct and indirect effects of SLR on human 
migration. All counties that experience flooding under 1.8m of SLR by 
2100 are shaded in blue, and colors indicate the remaining counties 
based on the number of additional incoming migrants per county that 
there are in the SLR scenario over the baseline. Color gradients are 
implemented in a log scale. (Credit: Robinson et al, 2020)

One especially telling statistic was recently recorded in Antarctica. On 
February 7, the highest temperature ever measured on the frozen 
continent—18.3 degrees C (64.9 degrees F)—was reached at the Esperanza 
Base along Antarctica’s Trinity Peninsula. This tops the previous record 
of 17.5 degrees C (63.5 degrees F) just five years ago in March 2015. 
Antarctica is among the fastest warming regions in the world.

What makes this especially alarming is the huge amount of water 
currently held by the continent’s glaciers. As temperatures increase, 
the rate at which these glaciers melt is accelerating. Measurements show 
that approximately 87 percent of glaciers on the west coast of the 
Antarctic Peninsula have retreated (i.e., melted back) over the last 
half-century, with the rate increasing during the past dozen years.

If the Antarctic Ice Sheet were to melt completely, global sea levels 
would rise approximately 60 meters (200 feet). Add to that, the 
Greenland Ice Sheet, which is also melting at an accelerating rate, sea 
level would rise by another 6 meters (20 feet). And that does not even 
include the additional contribution from smaller glaciers around the 
world, such as in the Himalayas and the Alps. All told, if all the 
world’s glaciers were to melt, which is highly likely given current 
trends in rising global temperatures, sea level would reach about 70 
meters (230 feet) above current levels.

Even short of these extreme scenarios, sea level rise will have 
devastating impacts. Current projections indicate that by the end of 
this century, global sea levels will rise between 0.5 and 2.5 meters 
(1.6 and 8.2 feet). Globally, in 2000, approximately 30 percent of urban 
land lay within high-frequency flood zones, projected to rise to 40 
percent by 2030.

An analysis of the dire consequences of projected sea level rise (SLR) 
on one part of the global population was recently published in the 
scientific journal PLOS ONE. “Modeling migration patterns in the USA 
under sea level rise” (Robinson, Dilkina, and Moreno-Cruz, 22 January 
2020) describes the displacement of tens of millions of people resulting 
from the inundation of low-lying portions of the US, including many of 
its major cities.

This enforced migration would not only have devastating consequences for 
those driven to flee their homes, jobs and their whole way of life, but 
would also have drastic consequences (so-called “indirect effects”) for 
the “recipient” areas, which are totally unprepared for the massive 
influx of people that would ensue.

In the US alone, 123.3 million people, 39 percent of the population, 
lived in coastal counties in 2010. By 2100, 13.1 million would be in 
permanently flooded areas, based on a rise of 1.8 meters (6 feet) in sea 
level, resulting in a massive migration of climate refugees. The 
Robinson et al model predicts that by 2100, 56 percent of counties will 
experience substantial population influxes under a 1.8-meter sea level 
rise scenario.

It must be remembered that sea level rise will result not only in 
permanent inundation of formerly habitable areas, but also the more 
frequent temporary flooding of adjacent areas due to increasingly 
powerful storms. In addition, infiltration of saltwater into the 
groundwater of low-lying agricultural areas will negatively impact food 
production.

The authors stress that these migrations will not necessarily follow the 
relatively limited, “business as usual” patterns of population movement 
that have been experienced so far due to such temporally limited events 
as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Recipient areas will include both nearby 
and more distant locations far from coastal regions. As a result, major 
disruptions will occur in a wide variety of spheres, including housing, 
transportation, employment and food production.

As illustrated in Figure 1, the entirety of the US Atlantic, Gulf and 
Pacific coasts will be under water, including many major cities. Among 
these are Boston, New York, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Miami, to name 
just a few. Inundation will reach significantly inland as well. Much of 
Florida will be inundated, leaving only a central island and a 
northern-most remnant. Beyond that, many counties will experience 
population influxes of tens and hundreds of thousands of additional people.

The Robinson et al model has been applied only to the United States. 
Similar effects will occur around the world, affecting billions of 
people directly and indirectly.

Sea level rise is only one consequence of anthropogenic (human-induced) 
climate change. Droughts, flooding due to excessive rainfall, wildfires 
(as recently experienced in Australia and California) and other extreme 
weather events have already disrupted the lives of millions of people. 
The impact of climate refugees from Africa, Mexico and Central America, 
along with those driven out by war, political persecution and economic 
crises, moving to Europe and North America pales in comparison to the 
massive disruptions that will occur under even “moderate” projected 
scenarios of climate change.

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