[D66] Mogelijk gaat 2/3 Mensheid met SARSCoV2 geinfecteerd worden (Wuhan Coronavirus 2019-nCoV #25)

[Dr. Marc-Alexander Fluks]

Bron:   Bloomberg
Datum:  13 februari 2020
Auteur: John Lauerman
URL:    
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/coronavirus-could-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says
Ref:    http://biostat.ufl.edu/about/people/faculty/longini-ira/
         https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson
         
https://bouve.northeastern.edu/bchs/directory/alessandro-vespignani/
         https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/heymann.david
Ref:    http://www.fluks.combidom.com/fluksweb/SARSCoV2.htm


Coronavirus could infect two-thirds of globe, research shows
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* Disease scientist bases estimate on transmissibility of virus
* WHO has said China quarantines provide a 'window' to prepare

As the number of coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top 
infectious-disease scientist warns that things could get far worse: 
Two-thirds of the world's population could catch it.

So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization who 
tracked studies of the virus's transmissibility in China. His estimate 
implies that there could eventually be billions more infections than the 
current official tally of about 60,000.

If the virus spreads to anywhere near that extent, it will show the 
limitations of China's strict containment measures, including 
quarantining areas inhabited by tens of millions of people. WHO 
Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has credited those steps 
with giving the rest of China and the world a 'window' in which to 
prepare.

Quarantines may slow the spread, but the virus had the opportunity to 
roam in China and beyond before they went into effect, Longini said. The 
country boosted its count of those infected by almost 15,000 on Thursday 
after widening the diagnosis methods. Longini's modeling is based on 
data showing that each infected person normally transmits the disease to 
two to three other people. A lack of rapid tests and the relative 
mildness of the infection in some people also makes it difficult to 
track its spread, he said.


Reducing Transmission

Even if there were a way to reduce transmission by half, that would 
still imply that roughly one-third of the world would become infected, 
Longini said. 'Unless the transmissibility changes, surveillance and 
containment can only work so well,' Longini, co-director of the Center 
for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of 
Florida, said in an interview at WHO headquarters in Geneva. 'Isolating 
cases and quarantining contacts is not going to stop this virus.'

He's not alone in warning of the possibility of a far greater spread. 
Neil Ferguson, a researcher at Imperial College London, estimated that 
as many as 50,000 people may be infected each day in China. Gabriel 
Leung, a public health professor at the University of Hong Kong, has 
also said close to two-thirds of the world could catch the virus if it 
is left unchecked.

The estimates of spread are part of a spectrum of possibilities that 
could unfold as the epidemic progresses, said Alessandro Vespignani, a 
biostatistician at Northeastern University in Boston. The next few weeks 
may provide more information about how easily the disease spreads 
outside China, particularly if more measures are put in place to control 
it, he said. 'People change behaviors' in response to disease, he said. 
'This is kind of a worst-case scenario. It's one of the possibilities.'

More data need to be gathered to gain a better idea of how far the virus 
is likely to range, said David Heymann, an infectious disease expert at 
the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who oversaw the WHO's 
response to SARS in 2003. 'We're seeing countries outside of China that 
have been able to contain the outbreak pretty well. I'm not saying 
they're wrong,' he said of estimates from the likes of Longini and 
Leung. 'I'm saying the models will be refined as more information comes 
to light.'

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(c) 2020 Bloomberg