[D66] The trouble with the referendum

[J.N.]

Richard Seymour
5 uur · Bewerkt ·

The trouble with the referendum. Judging from reports, the referendum
question is likely to be something like this:

“Greek people are hereby asked to decide whether they accept a draft
agreement document submitted by the European Commission, the European
Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, at the Eurogroup
meeting held on June 25.”

The agreement referred to, the Eurogroup has made clear, while not the
final version, constituted the "maximum flexibility" that would be
offered to the Greek side. Such a deal would, of course, constitute a
thorough reversal of the Greek government's mandate, and a defeat for
its programme - even for the Thessaloniki Programme, which was supposed
to be a series of emergency measures implemented irrespective of the
negotiations. The question, objectively, asks Greeks whether they should
accept capitulation. That is to say, do they prefer to accept the euro
with austerity, or reject austerity and leave the euro?

Unfortunately, it seems clear that the Greek government is posing a
question that it has no desire to face. This is why the criticisms
coming from the Right and from the KKE are making some headway. The
Right says, if you're going to put this to referendum, you should also
propose your alternative. The KKE says, why not include the proposal for
disengagement and repudiation of the memoranda? I have no doubt that
Tsipras et al have a 'Plan B' along these lines, which would necessitate
arguing for default and imposing capital controls, bank nationalisations
and the floating of an alternative currency. But at this point they will
not countenance it.

Tsipras et al seem, in fact, to be looking for a protest vote, which
they may not even get, in order to strengthen their hand with
negotiators, who may not even care, in order to reach a slightly less
worse deal, approximate to the €8bn austerity measures they were minded
to implement last week. This is why Varoufakis made his embarrassing
statement, saying that the Eurogroup should give the Greek government
more time on the basis that there will probably be a 'Yes' vote. This is
why the first opinion poll showed that 'Yes' have the edge, with just
under half supporting it. [UPDATE: the poll was taken before the
weekend, before the referendum announcement, and before Tsipras's
potentially game-changing speech.] The 'No' side doesn't have a coherent
articulation yet. And if it's left to the government, whose obsessive
focus is on negotiation strategies, it won't get one.

The question, for those who aren't prepared to swallow austerity and
starvation measures, is whether the wider Greek left can mobilise to
make the referendum into a show of defiance. The polls show that most
Syriza voters are quite prepared for Grexit. The base of the party could
be organised and, given the way the troika have behaved, a
national-popular coalition for a dignified, angry, anti-austerity Grexit
could be assembled. But unfortunately it won't come from the Syriza
leadership.