Black Swan theory

[Antid Oto]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

There is a theory doing the rounds of capitalist economists at the moment.  It
is called the Black Swan theory, developed by an American financial analyst,
Nicholas Taleb.  Before people discovered Australia, it was thought that all
swans were white.  But the discovery in the 18th century that there were black
swans in Australia dispelled that notion.

Taleb argues that many events are like that.  It is assumed that something just
cannot happen: it is ruled out.  But Taleb says, even though the chance is
small, the unlikely can happen and when it does it will have a big impact.
Taleb cited the 9/11 Twin Towers attack as a modern example.  The global credit
crunch and the ensuing economic crisis have been suggested as another example of
the Black Swan theory.

>From a Marxist dialectical point of view, the Black Swan theory has some
attraction.  After all, revolution is a rare event in history.  So rare that
many (mainly apologists of the existing order) would rule it out as impossible.
 But it can and does happen, as we know.  And its impact, when it does, is
profound.  In that sense, revolution can be described as a Black Swan event, as
a unique historical event.

But where Marxists would disagree with Taleb is that he argues that chance is
what rules history.  Randomness without cause is how to view the world.  This is
far too one-sided and undialectical.  Sure, chance plays a role in history, but
only in the context of necessity.

http://www.marxist.com/britain-black-swans-economic-crisis.htm

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