Alan Woods: A new stage in the crisis of capitalism

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A new stage in the crisis of capitalism part one
Written by Alan Woods
Wednesday, 26 May 2010

After talk of the so called "credit crunch" gave way to optimistic comments
about the "green shoots" in the economy, events in Greece caught the bourgeois
commentators unaware. Now the world economy has once again been plunged into
chaos and uncertainty as the governments of Europe try to contain the fall-out
from the near-default of Greece and it is the workers who will be presented with
the bill.

    “To the toiling masses of Europe it is becoming ever clearer that the
bourgeoisie is incapable of solving the basic problems of restoring Europe’s
economic life.” (Trotsky, On the United states of Europe, 1923)

The stock markets of the world are in turmoil. The falls on the stock exchanges
are a warning that the economic revival is in danger. The extreme volatility of
the market over the past fortnight reflects a fundamental lack of confidence.
All the lights are now flashing red.

The immediate cause of the panic is the crisis of the euro. This is ironic. Not
long ago they were talking about the euro as a rival to the U.S. dollar as a
global reserve currency. Now the convulsions of the euro are driving the world's
stock markets down and raising fears that the world is about to fall back into
slump.

The once prosperous euro zone is now teetering on the edge of a terminal crisis.
The markets believe that the weaker euro zone countries will not be able to take
the necessary action to reduce their deficits. The fears over the Greek debt
problems have rapidly turned into fears over Portugal and Spain. Only by
injecting huge funds from an emergency fund can the European bourgeoisie shore
up the shaky edifice.

The global financial crisis of 2008 was related to sub-prime mortgages, but now
the crisis is related to what one might call sub-prime government debt. In the
past, the bonds of European countries were considered to carry virtually zero
risk. But now sovereign default in one of the world's core economic areas has
become a serious threat. The Economist put it like this: 2008 will be remembered
as the year when the banks defaulted; 2010 will be remembered as the year when
governments defaulted.

Europe’s troubles can lead to a general crisis of world capitalism. On Monday
May 24, Washington Post carried a very interesting headline: “One false move in
Europe could set off global chain reaction”. That adequately sums up the
situation. The situation is so fragile that any small incident: a missed budget
projection by the Spanish government, the failure of Greece to hit a
deficit-reduction target, a drop in Ireland's economic output – could set off a
chain reaction that could lead to a global slump.

The conclusion of the article is striking: “the future of the U.S. economic
recovery in the hands of politicians in an assortment of European capitals”.
This is most revealing. It shows the extremely fragile and unstable nature of
the economic recovery, which finds its reflection in the extreme nervousness of
global markets. Almost anything can cause a sudden collapse of “confidence”.
Credit markets worldwide could suffer gridlock, throwing the world economy back
into recession. The euro crisis is only the tip of a very large iceberg, and as
with a real iceberg, the part you see is frightening enough, but the hidden part
is what is really deadly.

In a distorted way, the nervousness of the markets is a reflection of the
growing awareness of the bourgeois that the economic crisis will lead to a sharp
revival of the class struggle everywhere. The question is simply stated: will
governments be able to force the workers to accept huge cuts in the public
sector budgets in the interests of saving capitalism? The spectacle of workers
taking to the streets in Greece, Portugal and Spain has already given them an
answer that they did not want to hear.

The crisis in Greece is only the accident through which necessity reveals
itself. In Greece, the chain of European capitalism has broken at its weakest
link. But there are several other very weak links. Even if they find a temporary
solution to the problems of Greece, the fear that the contagion will spread to
Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy. And Britain, though not part of the Euro
Zone, will not be far behind.
Effects of globalization

At bottom the crisis is a manifestation of the fact that the productive forces
on a world scale are coming into contradiction with the narrow limits of private
ownership and the nation state. Like the Sorcerer’s Apprentice, the bourgeoisie
has conjured up forces it cannot control.

In a sense, the bourgeoisie is the victim of its success. The capitalists
attempted to overcome the limitations of the nation state by increased
exploitation of the world market. After the collapse of the USSR, two billion
people joined the capitalist world market. The entry of China, Russia, Eastern
Europe, and the increased participation of India, provided them with vast new
sources of markets, investments and raw materials.

However, dialectically, everything is turning into its opposite. The process has
reached its limit. Globalization now manifests itself as a global crisis of
capitalism. The factors that previously served to push the world economy up are
now combining to push it onto a vicious downward spiral. We saw something
similar in 1997 and 1998 when the East Asian financial crisis spread rapidly
through Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and other nations. Now Europe is facing
the same prospect.

It may be argued that Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland represent only about
four percent of world economic activity. But once the dominoes start to fall,
the effect can pass rapidly from Greece to Portugal and Spain, then to Ireland
and Italy, then Britain. Confidence in the euro would collapse, causing chaos in
world money markets that would end in a new crisis in Wall Street. In the words
of Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad: "the debt crisis and its ripple
effects are bad news for all corners of the world".

The Washington Post continues:

    “Inside the euro zone, banks are intimately linked, with a web of
investments and cross-country bond holdings that could be a main vector for
financial ‘contagion,’ with a default in one country weakening banks elsewhere.”

Europe in crisis

The crisis is pushing Europe, and its nation states, into dangerous and
uncharted waters. There were growing fears about the exposure of banks to
European governments and private borrowers. If nothing was done, European
governments would have been faced by the same fate that was suffered by Lehman
Brothers. Greece could be on an inexorable path towards default.

By May 7th, yields on the weaker euro-area countries’ government bonds rose
sharply, as the markets showed their muscle. There is a real threat that foreign
financing for these countries would cease altogether. The bond markets’
nervousness indicates that the investors are quite prepared to see whole nation
states go under. They are firm believers on the old Chinese proverb: “What do
you do when you see a man falling? – Give him a shove!”

It is true that all euro-area countries have an interest in avoiding a default.
If Greece goes under, the markets’ attention would immediately pounce on
Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy. Confidence in the euro would plunge. Yet the
German bourgeois do not like the idea of paying the debts of “profligate” countries.

On May 2nd euro-zone governments and the IMF set out the terms of a €110 billion
($145 billion) rescue for Greece. That was far more than had previously been
promised but it was not enough to settle investors’ nerves. Stockmarkets in
Europe and America slumped on May 4th and fell again the next day. Greek bonds
continued to trade at the level of junk bonds.

Caught on the horns of a dilemma, the European bourgeoisie did not know what to
do. The policymakers have been accused of doing too little, too late. But in
reality, whatever they did would be wrong. In the end Germany and the European
Union were forced to act to save the euro zone. In the early hours of May 10th
finance ministers, meeting in Brussels, agreed on an emergency plan to prop up
the euro zone. The main element is a “stabilization fund”, worth up to €500
billion ($635 billion). Of this, €60 billion is to be financed by the sale of EU
bonds.

The fund is to be supplemented by up to €250 billion more from the IMF. In
addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) said it would purchase government
bonds to restore calm to “dysfunctional” markets. It will offer banks unlimited
loans at a fixed interest rate. Yet again the governments are handing out
billions to the banks to prevent a collapse. But in the first place, there is no
guarantee that there will not be such a collapse, and in the second, who will
pay the bill for these huge sums?

The financial markets’ initial reaction was naturally euphoric. How could the
sharks not be euphoric at the prospect of further billions of taxpayers’ money
being shoveled down their greedy gullets? Germany’s stock market closed more
than 5% higher on May 10th. France’s main index went up by almost 10%: big
French banks are heavily exposed to Greece, so they also stand to benefit
handsomely.

However, this euphoria soon gave way to a more somber view. The market knows
that the whole thing has been hastily cobbled together, and there is no
guarantee that it will work for long. The package, despite its impressive scale,
only buys time for Greece and other vulnerable troubled governments to cut their
budget deficits and to improve their lost export competitiveness. If that is not
done, there will be an even worse crisis in the euro zone in a few months.

The appearance of European unity was in reality an illusion. Behind the façade
of unity and solidarity, all the nation states jealously guarded control over
their national interests and their national banking systems. These divisions
have been cruelly exposed by the present crisis.

The parsimonious spirit that lies behind all the talk of an “international
rescue” is shown by the long delays in approving the plan, which even then was
further delayed by failure to agree on details such as the interest rate to be
charged for access to funds. And immediately after the deal was signed, the
conflicts between the national governments began.

Germany is insisting that the money will be raised and controlled by
governments, not bureaucrats in Brussels. They do not want huge amounts of money
being handed out without close monitoring. In other words, the money will be
given to Greece with the strictest monitoring and control. Britain said it will
not sign up to it.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the central bank’s president, was accused of “caving in to
political pressure to help out spendthrift governments”. Axel Weber, the head of
the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, who may succeed Mr Trichet when he steps
down next year, openly criticized the ECB’s conduct in the pages of
Börsen-Zeitung, a German financial newspaper. In his defence, M. Trichet
maintains that the central bank was “fiercely and totally independent”, a
statement that not many people believe these days.

A speech made by Merkel during a rowdy session of the German federal parliament
made matters worse. She said that "the current crisis facing the euro is the
biggest test Europe has faced in decades," and: “If the euro fails, then Europe
fails". The already panicky markets plunged again.

Germany took a unilateral decision to ban the short selling of EU government
debt and banks. The move was taken because of the German Chancellor's increasing
desperation ahead of last Friday's vote on the euro bailout. The opposition MPs
and increasingly her own coalition members are becoming increasingly angry.
Merkel had to do something to prove that Germany was not simply writing a
multi-billion euro cheque from the taxpayer to bail out Greece and others. She
was trying to show that Germany was taking steps to defend itself.

This was no more than a mild attempt to control speculation. It has no chance of
success. But the markets want complete freedom to pursue their predatory
activities. The move wiped billions of euros off the value of shares and drove
the single currency down to a four year low. It infuriated Germany's European
partners, who had not been consulted. There were unprecedented public
recriminations from Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister. There were
naturally loud protests from London (both Labour and Tories were agreed),
reflecting the completely parasitic character of British capitalism's reliance
on finance capital.

Hypocrisy of German capitalists

The underlying sickness of European capitalism is reflected by the feverish
movements of the stock exchanges. The financial world is being shaken by rumors
of the possible collapse of the euro zone. All the official denials have not
helped to calm the jittery nerves the markets. In this mood of panic, the
bourgeois seek to find someone to blame. The Germans blame the Greeks. The
Greeks blame the speculators. The French blame the Germans.

Increasingly, the finger is being pointed at Berlin. Germany, which was the
engine of growth for the whole EU, its banker and de facto leader, is now the
target of all the pent-up anger and frustration of its partners. Why are the
Germans so stingy? Why did Merkel not do more to help Greece earlier? At a
recent meeting of European leaders it is said that President Sarkozy threatened
to leave the euro zone if Berlin did not help Greece

The criticisms of her neighbours do not go down well in with Berlin. The
prostitute press in Germany and other countries are trying to portray the
situation as “Europe helping lazy Greek workers.” That is a lie. This crisis was
not brought about by the workers of Greece or any other country. It was created
by the voracious and reckless actions of the bankers and capitalists of both
Greece and the rest of Europe. And the present “rescue plan” is a plan to
rescue, not Greek workers, but the bankers of Germany, France and other
countries who own most of the debts of Greek capitalism.

The public displays of moral outrage in Germany reek of hypocrisy. German
capitalism benefited more than any other from the introduction of the Euro. The
German capitalists enjoyed a privileged position in the years of boom. Their
exports invaded every market, taking advantage of the fact that weaker economies
like Greece, Spain and Portugal, could no longer devalue the currency to protect
their national market. German banks were happy to make profits out of lending to
Greece, Spain and Eastern Europe. They made a lot of money then, but they are
not prepared to accept losses now.

Germany’s dilemma

The problem is that, in the end, somebody has to pay the bills. Merkel managed
to push through the euro zone-wide bail-out mechanism on May 21. But opposition
among German voters is growing and it is spreading to Merkel’s coalition
partners and political allies. “Once again, we’re Europe’s fools” was how Bild,
the influential German newspaper, greeted news of the euro rescue plan. In the
latest polls, 47 percent of Germans are in favor of returning to the
deutschmark. In a crucial state-level election May 9 Merkel’s governing
coalition was heavily defeated. This is a sign of mounting dissatisfaction with
her Christian Democratic Union and its coalition ally, the Free Democratic Party.

The weaker members of the rich man’s club, known as the “Club Med” economies,
currently have a 3 trillion euro mountain of debt and their ability to service
it is in doubt. The “markets” are nervous about this. That is to say, the
bankers are nervous, because they fear that they may not get their pound of
flesh. That means, in the first place, the German bankers. Exposure of German
banks to Club Med debt may be as much as 500 billion euros. Thus, despite all
the huffing and puffing in Berlin, what is being discussed here is not aid to
Greece, but aid to the German bankers and their European partners in crime.

>From the point of view of German capitalism it was a case of “damned if you do,
and damned if you don’t.” If they provided Greece (and other weak euro zone
economies) with money, they would have trouble at home, and anyway there is no
guarantee it will succeed. If they refused, a Greek default would have a domino
effect throughout Europe and on a world scale, which would pull Germany down
with everyone else. Therefore, Merkel was forced to swallow hard and approve a
huge bailout.

At some point, Germany may conclude that further bailouts are just throwing
money into a bottomless pit. At that point, Germany may decide to cut its
losses. Germany may decide that the ECB should ignore its rules and purchase the
debt of the weak euro zone governments by the simple device of printing money
(“quantitative easing”). The euro zone, including Germany, would be paying for
it this with the weakening of the euro and higher inflation.

The Germans complain a lot, but they overlook the fact that the euro zone
provided Germany with considerable economic benefits. Since the euro was
adopted, unit labor costs in Club Med have increased relative to Germany’s by
approximately 25 percent, further improving Germany’s competitive advantage. Its
neighbors are unable to undercut German exports with currency depreciation, and
German exports have benefited. The result has been a massive €110 billion (2007)
current account surplus for Germany towards the rest of the Euro-zone. That
means that Germany exports €110 billion more to the Euro-zone than it imports,
which is paid for by massive lending from German banks. For German capitalists
this was of tremendous benefit in the short-run but in the long-run it is
completely unsustainable.

In order to revive the deutschmark, Germany would have to reinstate the
Bundesbank, withdraw its reserves from the ECB, print its own currency and then
re-denominate the country’s assets and liabilities in deutschmarks. This would
be difficult, but not impossible. The other members of the euro zone would face
far greater difficulties if they wished to return to their old currencies.

However, since German banks own much of the debt issued by Club Med, the losses
caused to Germany by a break with the euro zone would be far greater than
remaining within the euro zone and financially supporting it, at least for the
time being.

Greece – the sick man of Europe

Greece joined the Euro in 2001. At that time German capitalism was puffed up
with its own importance following reunification. The moving of its political
centre to Berlin in the heart of Europe symbolized its unlimited ambition to
become the Master of Europe. Under these conditions the Imperial Master
graciously accepted the accession of Greece as a further step towards
consolidation of German domination of the Balkans, which began with the
German-inspired intrigue to break up Yugoslavia.

However, Greek capitalism is the weakest of several weak links in European
capitalism. The Greek bourgeoisie – one of the most corrupt and reactionary in
Europe – thought that it was being very clever when it joined the European rich
man’s club. Like the frog in Aesop’s fable, it blew itself up to an enormous
size, and then it exploded.

Even in 2001, the real weakness of Greek capitalism ought to have been clear to
a blind man. It was graphically expressed in the huge deficits in the current
account, budget and public debt. As long as the boom continued, Karamanlis could
comfortably maintain himself in power for four-and-a-half years. He easily won
two elections. The Greek economy appeared to be healthy, with growth averaging
over 4% a year up to 2007.

The tourists were streaming in, construction was booming as a result of the 2004
Olympics. Greek ship-owners were making record profits from China’s export boom;
Russian oligarchs were buying expensive land on Aegean Islands. There were
subsidies from the European Union. Last but not least, Greek membership of the
Euro seemed a guarantee of future prosperity.

But the global economic crisis cruelly exposed the underlying weakness of Greek
capitalism. As a direct result of the adoption of the euro, the Greek economy
has lost competitiveness. Many Greeks are underemployed. This affects the youth
in particular, with a sharp rise in youth unemployment and a reduction of
openings in education. The unemployment rate for young graduates in Greece is
21%, compared with 8% for the population as a whole.

The growing mood of discontent that was seething beneath the surface was shown
by the violent youth protests after Alexandros Grigoropoulos, a 15-year-old
schoolboy, was shot dead by a policeman in December 2008. The murder triggered
five nights of riots. The protests quickly spilled into the main streets of
Athens, and thence across the country. There were violent clashes with riot
police and tear-gas filled Syntagma Square. Groups of youths burned cars, broke
shop windows decorated for Christmas and tossed in petrol bombs.

These demonstrations were on an unprecedented scale, resembling an uprising of
the youth. Demonstrators attacked police stations and public offices in a dozen
cities, causing damage estimated at more than €100m ($130m). Hundreds of school
students battled with police after the teenager’s funeral. Others threw stones
at policemen on guard outside parliament, shouting “let parliament burn”. This
was already a warning to the ruling class. It showed the pent-up anger of
Greece’s youth, which was only an extreme expression of a general discontent in
Greek society.

Throughout history, every revolution has been anticipated by a movement of the
youth – particularly the students, who are a sensitive barometer that reflects
the buildup of contradictions and tensions in society. This was the case in
Russia in 1901 and in Spain in 1930. In both cases, the demonstrations of the
student youth were a warning of the revolutions of 1905 and 1931.

The protests caused paralysis of the authorities. The right wing government of
Costas Karamanlis, terrified of provoking an even bigger movement, was unable to
impose a curfew or order mass arrests. The memory of the military dictatorship
in the 1970s was too fresh in people’s minds. Attempts to arrive at a consensus
between political leaders on how to quell the unrest quickly broke down. On
December 10th there was a 24-hour strike by public-sector unions, despite
Karamanlis’s appeal for it to be cancelled.

These events caused alarm among the international strategists of Capital. On
11th December The Economist commented:

    “There is something weird and frightening about the sight of a modestly
prosperous European country—assumed by most outsiders to have recovered from its
rocky history of coups and civil strife—that is suddenly gripped by an urban
uprising that the authorities cannot contain.”

The events of December 2008 led inexorably to the fall of the Karamanlis
government. George Papandreou, the Pasok leader, called for a general election.
“Effectively there is no government…we claim power,” he said. The Pasok gained
in popularity as the support for the New Democracy melted away in a welter of
financial scandals.

The Pasok government

The general election on October 4th 2009 resulted in a landslide victory for the
Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) that surprised both the political
observers and the Pasok leaders. This was a clear reflection of growing popular
discontent. 43.9% of voters backing the party, giving it 160 seats in the
300-member parliament. The centre-right New Democracy party was shattered. It
won only 33.5% and 91 seats—its worst-ever showing at the polls.

This was the biggest victory for Pasok since it first came to power in 1981. It
goes against the trend Europe in the recent elections where social democratic
parties have been defeated. It was a clear vote for change. The Communist Party
(KKE) took 7.5% and 21 seats, while Syriza, a left-wing coalition that arose
from a split from the CP, took 4.6% and 13 seats. Laos, a far-right party,
increased its share of the vote to 5.6% and won 15 seats – at the cost of the ND.

Unlike his father, Andreas Papandreou, and like Blair in Britain, George
Papandreou has worked to pull the party to the right. Brought up in Sweden, and
educated in the USA, he enjoys friendly relations with Obama. Initially he
promised stimulus of up to €3 billion ($4.4 billion) to accelerate economic
recovery and above-inflation increases in wages and benefits for public-sector
workers. He also promised real rises in wages and pensions to encourage Greeks
to spend again. He talked of exporting renewable energy, harvested on sunny
mountainsides and windy Aegean Islands, and persuading Greek software developers
abroad to set up companies at home, and so on and so forth.

But these reformist dreams immediately evaporated like a drop of hot water on a
hot stove. They came into conflict with the harsh reality of economic crisis,
collapsing tax revenues and a soaring budget deficit. The Karamanlis government
admitted that Greece had manipulated its figures to qualify for the euro in
2001. Papandreou admitted that this year’s budget deficit was not 6.7% but 12.7%.

It is true that the Greek capitalists, with the mentality of a petty haggler in
the marketplace who wishes to sell rotten fish by placing fresh ones on the top,
tried to get round the problem by the simple expedient of falsifying the
statistics to conceal the facts – something they are, incidentally, not alone in
practicing. But sooner or later the facts become known. The source of the
problem, however, was not in Athens and its faulty accounting.

The problem is precisely with the mechanism of the “free market economy”, which
operates with the same rationality as a herd of antelopes in the veldt. As long
as the market was heading upwards, they did not pay any attention to the
niceties of economic and financial soundness. But once the markets head
downwards panic sets in and a stampede begins. Now that the stampeded has begun,
nothing can stop it. The speculators rush blindly from one market to another in
search of a safe haven. In the process, they trample the crops, demolish houses
and kill anyone who stands in their path.
The markets decide

There was an old saying: man proposes and God disposes. Nowadays it would be
more correct to say: Man proposes but the Market disposes. With a budget deficit
almost 13% and a public debt of 125% of GDP, international investors were not
impressed with Papandreou’s promises, and sent him a little message to convey
their opinion. Spreads on Greek government bonds over German Bunds began to
widen, and have continued to widen ever since. This is the financial equivalent
of laying hold of a man’s genitals and exerting a gentle squeeze.

Papandreou wants social peace with fiscal austerity. But the two things are
incompatible. Papandreou wants to avoid direct confrontation with the trade
unions, but he has only two alternatives: either he defends the interests of the
workers or those of the capitalists. And he has made his choice. Papandreou is
compelled to cut living standards in order to placate the almighty Market, just
as Agamemnon was obliged to sacrifice his daughter Iphigenia in order to placate
the Gods of Olympus. However, Agamemnon ended up very badly as a result of his
actions, and his successor will not end up any better as a result of his.

The Greek premier is trying to hide behind the IMF and the anonymous
“international speculators” that have brought Greece to its knees. But for the
millions of Greek workers who are faced with savage cuts in their living
standards, these arguments do not excuse the actions of the Pasok leaders. The
Greek workers hate the speculators, the IMF and the bourgeois leaders of the EU.
But they cannot forgive a government that, while calling itself socialist, has
so readily bent the knee to the IMF and Brussels.

Immediately, Papandreou found himself ground between two millstones. The prime
minister’s promises of fiscal austerity have not convinced the markets. For
every step back the reformist leaders take, the bourgeois will demand ten more.
The Economist remarked: “By Greek standards Mr Papandreou has been courageous,
but he should have been braver still. Ireland set the pace on December 9th by
producing a budget that sharply cut public-sector wages.” And it added: “Hard
times, unfortunately, demand harsh measures.” Here is the real voice of the
bourgeois: stony-faced, hard hearted, and completely impervious to human
suffering. All must be sacrificed on the altar of Capital!

The austerity measures approved by the Athens government were too little for the
bourgeoisie, but too much for the workers. The Greek workers, following their
marvelous revolutionary traditions, immediately reacted with mass street
demonstrations. Feeling themselves betrayed by the government they hoped would
defend jobs and living standards, the workers of Greece have taken to the
streets. For months, Athens and other cities have been rocked by mass protest
demonstrations. One bourgeois commentator in Britain described the situation in
the following terms: “Greek workers against European bankers.” That puts it very
well.

Marx wrote that France was the country where the class struggle was always
fought to the finish. The same can be said of Greece. The memories of the Civil
War and the bitter divisions between Left and Right, and later of the Junta and
the Polytechnic uprising of 1974 are burned on the consciousness of the masses.
The divisions between the classes constitute a fault line running through Greek
society that can explode at any time.

The question can be put very simply: the bourgeoisie cannot afford to maintain
the concessions that were forced from them in the past. But the working class
cannot tolerate any further attacks on their living standards and conditions.
The workers of Europe will not stand with their arms folded while the conquests
of the last fifty years are systematically destroyed. The developments in Greece
therefore show what will happen in every country in Europe as the crisis unfolds.

Part two will follow next week.

http://www.marxist.com/new-state-in-crisis-of-capitalism-part-one.htm




National conflicts

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