Sri Lankan election sets stage for deep political crisis

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Sri Lankan election sets stage for deep political crisis
By K. Ratnayake
26 January 2010

Sri Lanka’s presidential election, which culminates with today’s
national vote, has been marred by violence and bitter charges and
counter-charges from the two principal candidates—the incumbent
Mahinda Rajapakse and his rival, the former army chief Sarath Fonseka.

Both candidates appear to be preparing to proclaim victory and/or
charge ballot-rigging, resulting in a contested election result and a
political-constitutional crisis.

Moreover, there are indications that even as voters line up to cast
their ballots, the candidates and their key aides are conducting their
own secret poll of the country’s bloated military-security apparatus
to determine where the officer corps’ sympathies would lie and what it
would do in the event of a contested election result.

President Rajapakse, speaking at his final election meeting at
Piliyandala on Saturday, declared: “I will be the president on January
26, 27 and 28 onwards too. We will not allow these conspirators
(opposition candidate Fonseka and his supporters) to divide the country.”

Rajapakse has repeatedly accused Fonseka—who until just recently was
his top military commander in the war against the country’s Tamil
minority—of betraying the country by accepting the support of the
Tamil National Alliance, a political party that was aligned with the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) until its military defeat last
year.

Fonseka claimed at a Saturday evening press conference that he had won
the postal vote (the results of which will be released only as part of
the post-election ballot-counting process). He declared himself
confident of victory and signalled that he was in discussions with the
military top brass about its attitude toward Rajapakse.

Addressing the media, Fonseka said, “A journalist asked me what I
would do if a military coup is carried out on the 27th to prevent my
victory. … I am confident that the Army would not engage in any
illegal move. The senior officers in the Army have connections with
us. If such a thing is attempted it would boomerang on the initiators.
The Army would go against them.”

Fonseka told the same press conference that the government has ordered
some army commanders in the Northern Province to come to Colombo. The
unstated suggestion was that they are viewed to be Fonseka loyalists
and that Rajapakse and the ruling clique wanted them out of the way so
as to facilitate ballot rigging.

Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama issued his own charges, accusing
the Fonseka camp of mobilising some 600–800 army deserters under a
former army major to support his campaign. Asked by an AFP
correspondent, about the possibility the government’s bourgeois
opponents might not accept a Rajapakse victory claiming it was the
result of electoral fraud, Bogollagama dismissed the possibility of a
serious crisis, saying “Sri Lankan people do not have time for street
protests.”

The government has defied the Election Commissioner, instigated a wave
of election-related violence and in recent days taken steps to
strengthen its control of the national broadcasting network with a
clear view to dictating how the election results and in protests over
their validity are reported.

The Sri Lankan Socialist Equality Party (SEP) and its election
candidate Wije Dias have explained that Rajapakse called the
presidential elections two years ahead of schedule in order to
strengthen his hand for what he has himself termed an “economic war.”
This economic war includes implementing stringent conditions ordered
by the IMF when it provided $US2.6 billion loan in July last year to
stave off a balance of payment crisis triggered by the cost of the war
and a precipitous decline in exports due to the world economic crisis.

However significant sections of Sri Lanka’s ruling elite do not have
confidence in Rajapakse’s ability to impose this agenda and have
rallied round the candidacy of General Fonseka, believing that he is a
better candidate to act as strongman against the working class. He is
backed by the right-wing United National Party (UNP) and the Sinhala
chauvinist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) as well as by much of big
business.

This faction is also concerned by the extent to which Rajapakse has
distanced Colombo from the US and India and developed close relations
with China. These layers also resent the degree to which the president
has concentrated political power in a small clique based on his family
and the officer corps.

While Fonseka claims to represent a democratic alternative to
Rajapakse—whose tenure in office has been marked by war and mounting
repression and political violence—he is like Rajapakse responsible for
war crimes and an uncompromising Sinhala chauvinist. He favours the
retention of the entire police state apparatus that has been built up,
beginning with the massive armed forces, during the 26-year war.

In the final days of the campaign Fonseka received a major boost when
Chandrika Kumaratunga, Rajapakse’s predecessor as president and head
of the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SFLP) endorsed his presidential
bid. “I took the decision,” said Kumaratunga, “to end four years of
silence as I am deeply concerned about the violence, intimidation and
corruption.” But exactly the same words could have been used to
describe her own government.

At his final rally Rajapakse, accused his rival of having the backing
of “international conspirators”. He did not elaborate, but on several
occasions he has attacked the opposition for being too close to the US
and European Union.

For his part, Fonseka told his final campaign press conference he
would appeal to the “international community,” that is the major
powers, if any election fraud takes place.

Washington has served notice that it is determined to counteract the
burgeoning ties between Colombo and Beijing and would undoubtedly
seize on any election crisis to push for a change of course.

Absent an independent intervention of the working class in opposition
to both right-wing bourgeois camps, the military and foreign powers
could end up playing the decisive role in determining the outcome of a
contested election outcome.

Ominously, the question of the political loyalties of the military and
its officer corps is already a subject of active discussion in the Sri
Lankan press.

The Sunday Leader, an opposition newspaper, published a column last
weekend by D.B.S. Jeyaraj revealing that both former and active
military personnel are actively supporting Fonseka’s campaign, with
serving officers taking leave to promote the retired general’s bid.

“In the north and east”—the majority Tamil areas that are under
military occupation—“there is a visible a new development. Military
officers serving in those regions are telling civilian acquaintances
to vote wisely by voting for a ‘Change.’ Ordinary soldiers are more
direct. They are telling members of the public in Tamil to vote for
“Fonseka Mahathaya” or ‘General Aiya’.”

D.B.S. Jeyaraj claimed an intelligence assessment found “roughly 75
percent to 80 percent of the rank and file are extremely loyal to the
erstwhile army commander. As far as the officers are concerned around
40 percent belong to the Fonseka fraternity. A large number of these
are in the captain to colonel ranks.

“The Fonseka phenomenon has had a tremendous impact on the army. Deep
divisions are emerging. There is both a vertical and horizontal split.

Determined to win by any method, Rajapakse has openly flouted the
country’s election laws. Election Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake
announced at a party representative committee meeting on January 19
that he would quit the job immediately following the election, thereby
indicating his displeasure and frustration at the government’s refusal
to heed his directives.

Dissanayake had repeatedly protested about the state media’s election
coverage. On January 12, he ordered his designated monitor of state
electronic and print media to withdraw, i.e., he abandoned all efforts
to control the state media’s coverage of the campaign because of
anonymous threats. Clearly the state media would not have defied the
Election Commission’s directives unless it had been ordered to do so
by the government.

In the run-up to the presidential vote, the government has taken a
number of steps that suggest it is trying to tighten its control over
the media.

On Saturday, government authorities at the national television
network, Rupavahini, announced holidays for its employees for today
and tomorrow. Only selected employees will be allowed to come to work.
Army officers came to the TV station yesterday and checked its
operations, a move employees suspect could be in preparation for the
army taking control of the TV facility if the government so orders.

Government supporters have also been the instigators of most of the
more than 950 reported incidents of election violence. These include
beatings, murders, and the destruction of campaign materials and
election offices. Four of the five persons killed during the campaign
were Fonseka supporters.

Observers have noted that glaring gaps in the voter registration
process and the horrific conditions of displacement and military
occupation that prevail in the North could facilitate electoral
manipulation and fraud.

According to the election commissioner’s department, one million poll
cards had not been delivered by the deadline of January 23. About
300,000 cards had not been distributed, just in the northern districts
of Vavuniya, Mullaithivu, Kilinochchi, Mannar and Jaffna. Although a
polling card is not essential for voting, undelivered cards can be
easily be used to stuff ballet boxes.

About one million people do not have national identity cards (NIC) or
other forms of identity cards which are obligatory for voting. A
spokesman for People’s Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL),
an election monitoring group, said, “At the end of the day it could be
easily said that at least a million voters, if not more, would be put
in the cold despite efforts by authorities to issue temporary NICs in
a rush before elections”.

The election is setting the stage for a bitter struggle for power in
ruling circles and a deepening onslaught on the social position of the
working class.

http://wsws.org/articles/2010/jan2010/sril-j26.shtml

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