War on Drugs vs War on Terror (UNODC predicts stable opium crop in Afghanistan)

[Henk Elegeert]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

UNODC predicts stable opium crop in Afghanistan

http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage/2010/February/unodc-predicts-stable-opium-crop-in-afghanistan.html

"
10 February 2010 - In a report issued today, UNODC projects stable
cultivation of opium poppy in Afghanistan this year (measured in
hectares), with a possible decrease in production (number of tons).
"There is a good chance that Afghanistan will produce less opium this
year," said UNODC Executive Director Antonio Maria Costa. Afghan opium
is the raw material for the world's deadliest drug - heroin - and a
major source of revenue for anti-government forces in Afghanistan and
neighbouring countries.

The UNODC Winter Rapid Assessment is based on farmers' intentions at
the time of planting. While most of the poppies are still under the
ground, this assessment of the situation gives a first indication of
what Afghanistan's opium poppy harvest will look like in 2010.

Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has decreased by one third (36
per cent) over the past two years, from a record high of 193,000 ha in
2007 to 123,000 ha in 2009. Stabilization of the crop in 2010 is
likely; if eventually confirmed, it would reinforce the progress made
in the recent past.

Most importantly in 2010 production may decrease. Recently, Afghan
farmers have enjoyed bumper yields from their opium bulbs: 56 kg/ha in
2009, compared to around 10 kg/ha in the Golden Triangle. Bad weather
during the current growing season may reduce the productivity of the
crop this year and thus volume (tons) of opium produced in the
country. This would continue the decline that has seen production fall
from a massive 8,200 tons in 2007 to 6,900 tons last year.

The number of poppy-free provinces is projected to remain stable or,
perhaps, rise. Of the 20 Afghan provinces that were poppy-free in
2009, 17 are expected to remain so this year. Three provinces
(Bahglan, Faryab and Saripul, all in the north) show signs of losing
that status, due to a small increase in cultivation in districts with
higher insecurity. Conversely, five provinces (Kunar, Nangarhar,
Kabul, Laghman and Badakshan) where poppy was grown last year may
attain poppy-free status in 2010.

"I urge the Afghan government and the international community to focus
special attention on the eight provinces where opium cultivation is
negligible, though not poppy-free", said Mr. Costa. "With appropriate
local community-inspired measures - such as shura-driven campaigns,
governor-led eradication and development assistance - three quarters
of the country (25 out of 34 provinces) could become poppy-free in the
near future," said Mr. Costa.

Since 2007, market forces have played a major role in influencing
farmers' decisions against opium cultivation. This is still a factor:
in the south-west of the country, where most of the opium poppy is
grown, a quarter of farmers cited low prices and low yields as the
main reasons for not growing opium poppy this year. However, price
trends are starting to reverse. The price of licit crops, like wheat
(down 43 per cent) is falling faster than the price of opium (down 6
per cent). "Development assistance is badly needed to help Afghan
farmers find income alternatives to opium," said Mr. Costa.

Mr. Costa also underlined the need for good governance. The report
shows that in parts of the country where the Government is better able
to enforce the law, a large percentage of farmers (61 per cent) said
that they did not cultivate opium because it is banned. In the
south-west, where the writ of the central Government is weaker, only
39 per cent of farmers cited the ban as the reason for not growing
poppies.

There is a strong correlation between insurgency and cultivation. The
UNODC assessment shows that almost 80 per cent of villages with very
poor security conditions grew poppy, while opium grows in only 7 per
cent of villages unaffected by violence. "This is further proof of the
overlap between high insecurity and high cultivation," said Mr. Costa.

"The message is clear: in order to further reduce the biggest source
of the world's deadliest drug, there must be better security,
development and governance in Afghanistan," said the head of UNODC.
"The Afghan authorities must lead and own their drug control strategy:
the rest of the world has a vested interest in its success," said Mr.
Costa.
Related information
"

Full report: Afghanistan Opium Survey 2010 - Winter Rapid Assessment (pdf)
http://www.unodc.org/documents/frontpage/Afghanistan_Opium_Survey_2010_Final.pdf

Zou die Balkenende nog steeds een functie ambieeren als Saffraanboer
in Afghanistan ? :)

Henk Elegeert

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