Climate Agency Sees China ’s Efforts Paying Off

[Cees Binkhorst]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

China neemt kennelijk zijn verantwoording op emissiegebied.
Nu EU en USA nog.

Groet / Cees

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/07/business/energy-environment/07emissions.html
October 7, 2009
Climate Agency Sees China’s Efforts Paying Off
By JAD MOUAWAD

One sticking point ahead of global negotiations over the climate later
this year is the contribution of developing countries like China, and
whether they should agree to mandatory targets to reduce carbon emissions.

An analysis released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency showed
that China could slow the growth of its emissions at a much faster pace
than was commonly assumed because of its huge investment in wind and
nuclear energy and its emphasis on energy efficiency.
The report
(http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf) also
points out that the global downturn is offering a unique opportunity to
tackle climate change.

As a result of slower economic activity, global carbon emissions from
energy is expected to decline as much as 3 percent in 2009, the steepest
drop in the 45 years that data has been compiled by the agency. That
compares with an average growth of 3 percent a year over the last decade,
and means that global emissions will be 5 percent lower in 2020, even in
the absence of new policies, than the agency estimated last year.

The agency stressed, however, that limiting the rise in global
temperatures would require significant and rapid investments in clean
technology. An “energy and environmental revolution” is needed to achieve
meaningful cuts in carbon emissions and avoid some of the worst
consequences of climate change, the International Energy Agency said.

“This gives us a chance to make real progress towards a clean-energy
future, but only if the right policies are put in place promptly,” the
energy agency’s executive director, Nobuo Tanaka, said. A deal at the
global climate summit in Copenhagen at the end of the year, he said, “is
crucial in this regard.”

Energy-related carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels, such as coal,
oil and natural gas, account for more than two-thirds of all
greenhouse-gas emissions.

The report shows how governments can achieve cuts in carbon emissions
through energy efficiency and investments in clean technologies that would
keep global temperatures from rising more than an international goal of 2
degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit). The measures would lead to greenhouse
gas concentrations being stabilized at 450 parts per million of carbon
dioxide.

“The message is simple and stark: if the world continues on the basis of
today’s energy and climate policies, the consequences of climate change
will be severe,” Mr. Tanaka said.

The cost would be $10 trillion from 2010 to 2030, the agency said. But
savings from energy efficiency would be about the same amount by then.

One of the report’s most intriguing findings was that China’s current
policies were achieving much bigger cuts than expected. China overtook the
United States as the world’s top carbon emitter in 2007 after more than a
decade of rapid industrialization.

But China is building more nuclear power plants and increasing the role of
renewable energy, raising efficiency standards in new buildings, and
gradually moving the economy from its manufacturing base to services, the
energy agency said.

As a result, China’s carbon emissions, which were 6.1 gigatons (a gigaton
is a billion tons) in 2007, could rise to 7.1 gigatons by 2030, much less
than the 11.6 gigatons that were expected.

“These savings would put China at the forefront of all global efforts to
combat climate change,” Fatih Birol, the energy agency’s chief economist,
said in an interview ahead of the report’s release.

Such savings from China could put the pressure on the United States, which
has so far failed to come up with a coherent policy to reduce emissions,
as well as other industrialized nations.

The world currently emits about 29 gigatons of carbon, and estimates are
that that will rise to above 40 gigatons by 2030 if nothing is done. To
meet the agency’s targets, and limit the rise in global temperatures, the
world would need to reduce its emissions by 24 percent by then.

In the transportation sector, for example, which is dominated by fossil
fuels, 60 percent of worldwide car sales by 2030 would have to be either
hybrids, plug-in hybrids or electric vehicles.

One plan being discussed in the Senate would reduce emissions in the
United States by 20 percent compared to their level of 2005. The House
passed a bill earlier this year that aims for a 17 percent cut. The goal
in the European Union, meanwhile, is to cut emissions by 20 percent by
2020.

Revenue of oil-producing countries drop by 16 percent from 2008 to 2030 if
a global agreement to slash emissions is reached in Copenhagen. However,
the cumulative revenue of members of the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries over that period, which would total $23 trillion,
would still be four times as much as they earned from 1985 to 2007, which
was $6 trillion, the agency said.

“The cost of addressing climate change is manageable,” Yvo de Boer, the
executive director of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, said in a foreword to the report. “The cost of not doing so is
unaffordable.”

**********
Dit bericht is verzonden via de informele D66 discussielijst (D66 at nic.surfnet.nl).
Aanmelden: stuur een email naar LISTSERV at nic.surfnet.nl met in het tekstveld alleen: SUBSCRIBE D66 uwvoornaam uwachternaam
Afmelden: stuur een email naar LISTSERV at nic.surfnet.nl met in het tekstveld alleen: SIGNOFF D66
Het on-line archief is te vinden op: http://listserv.surfnet.nl/archives/d66.html
**********