De USA economie 2009-2014 e.v.

[Cees Binkhorst]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

Een inzichtelijke 'down-to-earth' analyse van de Amerikaanse economie.
In 2009 nog weinig herstel, in 2010 2x weinig en in 1/3 van de 'metro
areas' pas in 2014 of zelfs nog later herstel door de ravage aangericht
door de huizenmarkt en de daarbij horende hoge werkeloosheid (o.a. in Los
Angeles en wijde omtrek).

Groet / Cees

PS. De volgende presidentsverkiezingen zijn in 2012, en dan is een groot
deel van de economie aan de beterende hand, maar bepaald nog niet 'op
stoom.' Obama en cs. heeft DAN dus politiek nodig dat duidelijk wordt wie
de economische schade heeft aangericht, niet eerder ;)

http://www.sacbee.com/1098/story/1936416.html
to zoom in on specific regions and to access a searchable data base of
employment information by state and metropolitan area.
Cees: In één plaatje dus een overzicht, waar het wel goed gaat én waar het
slecht blijft gaan.

http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/1944947.html
California residents are leaving for the mid-South and its more stable job
markets.
Cees: California is als 'State' de 5e economie in de wereld en de
'volksverhuizing UIT de staat vindt al sinds 5+ jaren plaats.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/69823.html
Projection: It'll be years before jobs return to much of U.S.

Tony Pugh | McClatchy Newspapers
last updated: June 14, 2009 09:37:40 AM

WASHINGTON — Unlike the labor market collapse that killed millions of U.S.
jobs in a matter of months, the nation's return to peak employment will
not be nearly as uniform nor as swift.

While signs indicate that the worst of the recession may be over, only six
metropolitan areas across the country are expected to regain their
pre-recession employment levels by the end of 2009, according to
projections from IHS Global Insight, a leading economic forecaster.

The areas poised for a jobs rebound later this year are: Anchorage,
Alaska; Champaign-Urbana, Ill.; Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; Columbia, Mo.;
Laredo, Texas; and the Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux areas of Louisiana.

Only five areas are expected to see a similar jobs recovery in 2010: Las
Cruces, N.M. and El Paso, San Antonio and the McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr and
Austin-Round Rock areas of Texas.

Most of the country — 286 of 325 metro areas covered in the IHS analysis_
aren't likely to regain their pre-recession employment levels until at
least 2012.

Of these areas, 112 probably won't return to their recent peaks until 2014
or later. These include Rust Belt towns such as Cleveland, Dayton and
Akron, Ohio; Detroit, Warren and Flint, Mich.; the hurricane-ravaged
Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss., area and the greater Los Angeles region, where the
housing bubble and high unemployment have strangled the local economy.

The bleak jobs picture underscores the long, tough road ahead in
rebuilding the U.S. economy after the worst recession since the Great
Depression.

Of the 6 million jobs lost since the recession began 18 months ago, nearly
4 million were eliminated between November and April. The six-month
freefall included a record four straight months with more than 600,000 job
losses.

"This recession is unique because of the way it leveled the playing
field," said James Diffley, IHS managing director of U.S. regional
services. "The precipitating factor, after housing, was the finance
industry, and that affected everybody. Now everybody's cutting back on
debt, and the banks are being more cautious about lending, so there's less
spending. All those things mitigate against a quick turnaround."

The IHS analysis covers 325 of 363 U.S. metropolitan areas, or population
centers, as defined by the Census Bureau. Thirty-eight metro areas weren't
included because of a lack of government data, said Jeannine Cataldi, an
IHS senior economist.

Diffley said the projections reflect a local economy's response to various
economic factors based on a statistical analysis of recent history.

IHS expects Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska to be among the first to match
their previous employment peaks because their economies never fell as far
as those in the rest of the country.

All three states are dominated by the energy industry and are benefitting
from rising oil prices. They also have lower unemployment rates than the
national average and have weathered only light-to-moderate job losses
compared to the rest of the country. In April, Alaska was one of two
states that had more people employed than it had in the previous year.

In addition, none of the states has suffered through the kind of major
housing bubble that has sapped housing wealth nationwide. In fact, Alaska
has one of the nation's lowest foreclosure rates.

Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, on the other hand, will take years to recover
from manufacturing job losses, particularly in the troubled automobile
industry.

President Barack Obama this week said that he expects the economic
stimulus bill to create 600,000 jobs over the next 100 days, but most
economists expect the economy to continue bleeding jobs for the
foreseeable future.

"Although we expect the economy to bottom out in GDP terms during the
second half of the year, job losses should continue throughout 2009, with
the unemployment rate peaking just above 10 percent," said IHS chief U.S.
economist Nigel Gault in a recent letter to investors. "We still expect
total job losses to exceed 7 million. But the worst news is behind us, and
employment declines should progressively soften as the year proceeds."

In fact, by the end of the year, the economy is expected to begin adding
jobs. "We'll start to have an uptick, but it won't be very strong,"
Diffley said.

At least not until mid-2010, when a majority of states are likely to be
adding jobs, Diffley said.

Expect much of the new job growth to occur in areas where the population
is growing, Cataldi said. Many of the new jobs will be in the areas of
professional and business services.

"We expect that to be a large growth sector going forward," Cataldi said.

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