Grieken brengen kadootjes - Amerikanen onzin?

[Cees Binkhorst]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

Wat zou de ´investment´ editor van de Financial Times beogen als hij
onderstaand artikel uit zijn pen wringt?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f80f414-e0da-11dd-b0e8-000077b07658.html
Greeks bearing gifts

By John Authers

Published: January 12 2009 19:09 | Last updated: January 12 2009 19:09

The market fears the Greeks, even when bearing gifts. It is also scared
about the Irish and the Spanish.

Greece has always been treated as a peripheral eurozone member, not only
in geography. Even before last year’s civil unrest, its bonds traded at a
significantly higher yield than those of Germany – showing a higher
perceived default risk.

The market is nervous about other nations on the eurozone’s periphery,
notably Ireland and Spain, which grew overextended during the credit
bubble.

A eurozone country defaulting and leaving the euro is close to an
unthinkable event. But Friday’s news from Standard & Poor’s that Greece
and Ireland were on review for a possible downgrade, followed on Monday by
Spain, left many thinking the unthinkable.

The spread of Greek bonds over German bunds is 2.32 percentage points,
almost 10 times its level of two years ago. Spanish spreads on Monday rose
above 90 for the first time. An Intrade prediction market future puts the
odds on a current eurozone member leaving the euro by the end of next year
at about 30 per cent.

The euro dropped more than 1 per cent against the dollar within minutes of
the Spanish news, and is down 9.8 per cent in the last few weeks.

A crisis over Greece might be the euro’s ultimate “stress test” (to borrow
a phrase from Daniel Katzive of Credit Suisse). If the eurozone could find
a way to deal with a default, that might confirm the euro’s status as the
world’s next reserve currency.

But if the eurozone could not work out a solution, and a country exited,
any such ambition would be over.

The dollar-euro exchange rate affects many other assets.

Now that fears are in the open that Greece (or another peripheral country)
could be the Trojan horse that breaks up the euro, any news on this front
could shake many other markets.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

Willem Buiter maakt er korte metten mee op http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/

Als er het laatste jaar IETS is dat de koers Euro-Dollar beinvloedde, dan
was het wel de olieprijs ;)

Groet / Cees

PS. En nou maar afwachten of de Russen gelijk krijgen dat de USA uit
elkaar gaat vallen?

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