Mogelijk Italiaans referendum over herinvoering Lire

[Dr. Marc-Alexander Fluks]

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Bron:  Los Angeles Times
Datum: 9 juni 2005
URL:   http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-euro9jun09,0,5831901.story?coll=la-home-world


In Italy, Bid to Revive the Lira Gains Currency
-----------------------------------------------
With anti-EU sentiment rising and the national economy faltering, the
euro is losing its luster - and value. Rightist politicians say dump it.

By Tracy Wilkinson, Times Staff Writer

ROME — Bring back the lira!

The lira? That currency of the many zeros that had Italians calculating
the price of their pizzas in the thousands and rents in the millions?

As improbable as it may seem, a kind of lira nostalgia has surfaced here
more than three years after the euro was introduced in Italy and
throughout most of the European Union as the common currency and a key
symbol of continental unity.

French and Dutch voters' decision last week to reject the proposed EU
constitution has not only hurled Europe into crisis, but is taking a toll
on the value of the euro, until now a strong and stable - if not always
popular - currency.

No expert believes that Italy or other EU powers with similar economic
woes, such as Germany, will scrap the euro and return to their old
national currencies. But that hasn't stopped a junior partner in Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi's ruling coalition from announcing a campaign
to put reviving the lira to a national vote.

The movement underscores the risks facing the EU. It reflects widespread
unhappiness with local economies, including high unemployment and sluggish
growth, a sentiment that helped fuel the backlash in France and the
Netherlands. Amid fears that European integration is contributing to such
problems, the euro becomes an easy scapegoat.

"In this current climate of resentment and disappointment, demagoguery
[about the euro and the lira] is a very dangerous thing," said Federico
Rampini, an Italian commentator who specializes in economic affairs.

The idea of reviving the lira started with Welfare Minister Roberto
Maroni, who told an Italian newspaper late last week that he wanted to
hold a referendum to let Italian voters decide the matter. Bringing the
lira back, or at least circulating it alongside the euro, was not a
"far-fetched" proposal, he said.

"I have no nostalgia for the lira," Maroni said. "But from the citizens a
cry for help is reaching our ears. The euro is the legitimate child of the
European model, which, with worry, we're watching fail."

Maroni presented no specific rationale for reviving the lira. But other
political leaders in Italy, and across the continent, recoiled at the
idea, calling it unrealistic, costly and counterproductive, and quickly
sought to shoot it down.

"Bizarre," said Italian Foreign Minister Gianfranco Fini.

"A horror movie!" said House Speaker Pier Ferdinando Casini.

"It is total folly," Giancarlo Padoan, an Italian official with the
International Monetary Fund, was quoted as saying. "The fact that such a
hypothesis is being debated does not help Italy's image in the world. It
is a sign of desperation, of the inability to find solutions."

But Maroni persisted, saying a petition drive to gather signatures for a
referendum would be launched soon. He was joined by other members of his
small, euro-skeptic political party, the Northern League, one of four
parties in the ruling coalition.

It is not difficult to find Italians who rail against the euro. Since it
replaced the lira, just about everything has become more expensive.
Italians are fond of saying that prices are now in euros and their
salaries are still in liras.

Economists say rampant gouging at the time of the euro's introduction
nearly doubled prices on many items. A 1,000-lira espresso immediately
cost 1 euro in many bars and restaurants. But in fact, 1,000 lira was
equal to about 50 euro cents.

"The euro has been useless," said Sabrina Falcioni, dusting the counter at
her boutique in central Rome, where she sells colorful fishnet stockings.
Her partner, Alessio Ansuinelli, agreed, noting that the euro's
extraordinary strength against the dollar and other currencies has meant
fewer tourists and less business. "It's been negative for me like for
everyone," he said.

Although the euro's strength should mean cheaper imports from the U.S. and
some other nations, Italians say they aren't seeing much benefit.

"My problem isn't with the euro. It's that the cost of living goes up, and
I haven't had a raise in years," said Gerardo Favaroni, a waiter serving
cappuccino at a sidewalk cafe. "Cigarettes, gasoline, insurance.
Everything goes up. Our prices [on the menu] do, too. But so do tips, so
at least I have that possibility."

None of these shopkeepers and employees thought that bringing back the
lira would necessarily solve the problem, however. "It's not as though
we'd go back to the lira and back to old prices," Falcioni said. "It
wouldn't help."

Despite their claims to the contrary, Maroni and his supporters, more
than sponsoring an exhumation of the lira, seem to be appealing to their
conservative base and to the widespread discontent in Italy with an eye to
next year's elections.

"It is populist jargon aimed at attracting the support of the discontented,"
said Franco Pavoncello, a political scientist at Rome's John Cabot
University. "The Northern League is trying to find an electorate. But the
idea is insane, unthinkable."

Still, Pavoncello said, the rhetoric gets a hearing because many Italians,
like other Europeans, have been angered by how their leaders have handled
continental integration. They resent EU regulatory bodies, such as one
that this week ruled that Italy violated budget deficit limits and could
face monetary sanctions.

Some analysts believe the euro is overvalued against the dollar, making
European exports to U.S. markets very expensive. For the euro to fall
could help exporters. But it's unlikely to drop enough to give a
substantial boost to weak economies such as Italy's, which has slumped
into recession for the second time in two years and has been branded the
weakest in the 12-nation bloc that uses the euro.

Berlusconi has not joined the call for a return to the lira, but in the
past he has been quick to blame the EU for many of Italy's economic
troubles.

Such rhetoric "is exactly the kind of scapegoating that led to the
results" in the French and Dutch votes, said Rampini, the economics
commentator.

"Italy for a long time has been very pro-European, but I think even
Italians would vote against the constitution now," he said. "I'm worried,
not because I think the EU will dissolve but because I think we're headed
into a period of prolonged paralysis."

Italian comic actor Roberto Benigni, an Oscar winner, may have had the
best idea: Instead of bringing back the lira, why not return to sesterces,
the silver and bronze coins of ancient Rome?

"That would be even better," he said, according to the Ansa news agency,
"so we could return to conquer Gaul and resolve the economic crisis."

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(c) 2005 Los Angeles Times

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