The treaty is dead, long live the treaty

[Henk Elegeert]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

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  The treaty is dead, long live the treaty

By Paul Reynolds
World Affairs correspondent, BBC News website


The EU constitutional treaty, as things stand, cannot be put
into effect.

The issue now is how to give it a decent burial.

But already there is talk of resurrecting the treaty in
another form.

Experts have been examining which bits might be implemented
even without a new treaty.

And others talk of a second, if different, constitutional
agreement.

It is a case for them of: "The treaty is dead, long live the
treaty!"

John Palmer, Political Director of the European Policy
Centre in Brussels, said: "There will have to be another
treaty. This will be needed in two or three years. The
present voting arrangements agreed in the Treaty of Nice
will not be able to bear the weight of further enlargement."

Of course, such a course would be fiercely resisted by those
who see the French and Dutch votes as a decisive moment in
European history when citizens turned against the concept of
a closely integrated continent.

The British Conservative Party's Dr Liam Fox said that the
French and Dutch voters had "liberated" Europe. They had
delivered "not a crisis but an opportunity".


All states need to ratify

The present treaty cannot be implemented for the simple
reason that it requires all 25 member states to ratify it
and two states, France and The Netherlands, are not going to
do so (unless voters there change their minds).

Voters in others, especially the UK, might well reject it if
asked. And that assumes there will be a British referendum
which seems highly unlikely given the Foreign Secretary's
announcement to parliament that it is being shelved.

Public opinion polls in Denmark, which is due to hold a
referendum on 27 September, have also swung against the
treaty since the French and Dutch votes.

[ There will have to be another treaty. This will be needed
in two or three years.  John Palmer, European Policy Centre]

Those wanting to pull the plug now are led by Britain, but
even London has to be careful. The British decision not to
ask parliament to authorise a referendum is widely seen as a
diplomatic way of acknowledging the demise of the treaty
without wishing to go out on a limb.

It is also seen as an acknowledgment that it would not win
such a referendum. The situation might be very different if
public opinion in the UK was different.


EU summit

Ideally, Britain wants all member states to agree at their
summit on 16-17 June that this treaty is dead and there is
no point in carrying on with it.

The French and Germans, along with the Commission and the
European Parliament, want everyone to vote, so that the
final tally of opinion is known.

A consensus on ratification will probably not emerge at the
summit - indeed, as one European official put it, this might
be an "ugly little meeting" - so there will be a further
period of uncertainty while it becomes clearer who is going
to vote and who is not.

But beyond that, the EU professionals are turning their
minds to the next stage, and are preparing to do battle with
those who conclude that the EU must now call a halt to all
further integration, and even start loosening the ties that
bind it.

Two options are being considered.

The first would be to pick bits out of the treaty and
implement them by intergovernmental agreement.


Start again?

For example, meetings of the Council of Ministers, which
passes EU laws, could be partly televised, as proposed in
the treaty.

The Commission could volunteer to send proposed legislation
to national governments and if three object, then it would
review the proposals. This is also in the treaty text.

Mr Straw indicated that he might agree to this proposal.

The European Defence Agency, designed to coordinate
research, could be set up independently of the treaty.

The new EU diplomatic service, work on which has already
begun, could also develop.

The other option is to wait, watch and then start all over
again with a view to having a new treaty.

"It is important to hear all voices, not just some voices,
so all member states should make their decisions on this
treaty" said John Palmer of the European Policy Centre.
"What has happened underlines the need for the Union not to
develop farther than its democratic polity. It must give
ownership back to the people. But we will need another treaty."

"However," he went on, "the next one will have to be built
upwards and not delivered downwards. For example, another
constitutional convention should be directly elected."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/uk_politics/4614611.stm

Published: 2005/06/06 15:32:37 GMT
© BBC MMV
"

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