Euro staat op springen: spoedoverleg centrale banken

[Dr. Marc-Alexander Fluks]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

Terwijl de Euro gisteren een dieptepunt tegen de Yen bereikte en in Italie
stemmen opgaan een referendum te houden over de her-invoering van de Lire,
vond ik zojuist het onderstaande bericht.

Er wordt inmiddels alom rekening gehouden met de door mij voorspelde klap
van de Euro...!

Op de mini-pagina,
   http://www.fluks.dds.nl/euro/index.html
staat inmiddels ook een link voor de waarde van de Euro in Yen.


Marc Fluks, Amsterdam


Bron:  BBC News
Datum: 6 juni 2005
URL:   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4606963.stm


Is Europe's passion for the euro fading?
----------------------------------------
Analysis By Jon Cronin

It was an idea that could barely be whispered inside Europe's corridors of
power - might the European Union lose its appetite for the euro?

Launched amid much fanfare in 1999, the single currency was a symbol of
European unity, a sign of the continent's re-emergence on the world stage
and a challenge to the hegemony of the US dollar.

Six years on, with slow growth and high unemployment bedevilling the
economies of some of the euro's most powerful supporters, the whispers of
doubt are beginning to grow louder.

Leading politicians in Berlin have expressed concern that the tight rules
governing the euro are strangling Germany's economy, by far the biggest in
the 12-nation eurozone.

The country's finance minister and central bank president reportedly
attended a meeting where the "collapse" of European Monetary Union was
discussed.

Meanwhile, a senior member of Italy's coalition government has openly
demanded a referendum which would call for the abolition of the euro and
the reintroduction of the Italian lira.


Falling currency

All this is thrown into sharp relief by the "No" vote delivered by voters
in France and the Netherlands against the EU constitution.

Shortly after the Dutch rejection on Wednesday, the euro sank to an eight-
month low against the dollar of $1.2158.

So is Europe's great experiment in monetary union running out of steam?

German Economy Minister Wolfgang Clements lashed out at the euro on
Thursday, claiming the currency union was stifling Germany's already
stagnant economy.

In particular, he criticised the level at which eurozone interest rates
were being held, saying they took too little account of Germany's needs.

The European Central Bank decided to keep rates on hold at 2% for the 24th
month running on Thursday, but many economists believe Germany's economy
needs a level closer to 1%.

"The European-wide interest rate does not take enough account for my taste
of Germany's contribution to the rest of Europe," Mr Clements said.


Break-up talks

His comments came little more than a day after a politically explosive
report suggested Germany's government was planning to blame the euro for
the country's economic weakness.

Stern magazine said finance minister Hans Eichel and Bundesbank president
Axel Weber had been present at a meeting where the "collapse" of monetary
union was discussed.

Both men were quick to deny that they had personally contributed to any
discussion of currency union break-up. But the mere presence of two of
Europe's most powerful finance officials at such a discussion sent nervous
ripples through the world's currency markets.

Stern also published a survey suggesting 56% of Germans wanted to go back
to the Deutschmark.


'Unique success'

Germany is not alone among the eurozone's major economies to be showing
some political restlessness about the euro.

Italian Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni on Friday called for a referendum
to decide whether his country should ditch the euro and revert to the
lira.

Although a member of the euro-sceptic Northern League party, Mr Maroni's
views could generate support among Italians unhappy at high prices which
many blame on the introduction of the euro.

Still, despite the growing discontent, the break-up of the monetary union
is a subject most of Europe's leaders are keen to avoid.

The huge political and economic costs alone would be enough to deter most
governments.

Posturing against the euro in Germany and Italy may also be as much about
national politics as concern over Europe's wider destiny.

Germany's ruling Social Democrats (SPD), who have been heavily criticised
for their running of the economy, are likely to face a general election
this year. Italy, meanwhile, has seen its economy tip into recession.

And despite the grumblings, the official view from Germany is still upbeat.

"Finance Minister Eichel and Bundesbank President Weber see the euro as a
unique success story and an important step in securing the future of
Europe," the Bundesbank has said.

Most experts agree that the euro's recent downward tumble against the
dollar owes far more to interest rate hikes in the US than to the crisis
currently engulfing the European Constitution.

The euro remains comfortably above its launch value against the dollar,
while its recent decline on the currency markets will come as welcome news
for exporters in the eurozone.

The euro may be down but for now, at least, it's not out.

--------
(c) 2005 BBC

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