ASPO 530

[Dik]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

Het ziet er naar uit dat Bush gelijk naar de
Acceptance stage is gegaan, en al andere stages, als
niet ter zake, heeft overgeslagen.
lenny

--- Antid Oto <antidoto at home.nl> wrote:
> REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl
>
>
http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL52/newsletter52.pdf
>
> 530 Reacting to terminal illness Brian Regan makes a
> telling
> comparison, commenting as follows:
>
> It has occurred to me that Elisabeth Kübler-Ross'
> "grief
> cycle," initially discovered by her as the typical
> path of a
> patient’s reaction to the unwelcome news of terminal
>
> illness, might also be applied to the end of cheap,
> suitable
> oil. I am listing it here, with my own guesses (in
> parentheses) about the reactions to peak oil, and
> some
> conjectures respecting the time frames of such
> reactions. I
> think it sums up much that has been written about
> the future
> effects of the phenomenon.
>
> Shock Stage: Initial paralysis at hearing the bad
> news.
> (Inability to relate the prospect of growth
> cessation to
> anything in past experience.) ca. 2000
>
> Denial Stage: Trying to avoid the inevitable. (Rigid
> refusal
> to accept the outlandish notion that cheap oil of
> the right
> kind will end soon.) 2000-2007
>
> Anger Stage: Frustrated outpouring of bottled-up
> emotion.
> (Outrage at "Big Oil," Saudi Arabia, China,
> government
> taxation, etc.) 2005-2009
>
> Bargaining Stage: Seeking in vain for a way out.
> ("Throw the
> bums out" by electing new leaders, heavy investing
> in
> expensive alternatives, calls for "science" to save
> us,
> expecting a deus ex machina.) 2008-2012
>
> Depression Stage: Final realization of the
> inevitable. (Even
> flat-earth economists surrender, presidential
> politicians
> state facts publicly, businesses begin collapsing in
> droves,
> return of the Great Depression foretokens collapse.)
> 2011-2015
>
> Testing Stage: Seeking realistic solutions.
> (National
> impoverishment forces abandonment of socialist
> policies and
> international development aid, various
> alternative-energy
> schemes tested and most abandoned, local farming
> grows,
> large cities wither, beginnings of martial law to
> keep
> order, interregional conflicts.) 2013-2025
>
> Acceptance Stage: Finally finding the way forward.
> (War,
> collapse.) 2018-2075
>
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