ASPO 530

[Antid Oto]

REPLY TO: D66 at nic.surfnet.nl

http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL52/newsletter52.pdf

530 Reacting to terminal illness Brian Regan makes a telling
comparison, commenting as follows:

It has occurred to me that Elisabeth Kübler-Ross' "grief
cycle," initially discovered by her as the typical path of a
patient’s reaction to the unwelcome news of terminal
illness, might also be applied to the end of cheap, suitable
oil. I am listing it here, with my own guesses (in
parentheses) about the reactions to peak oil, and some
conjectures respecting the time frames of such reactions. I
think it sums up much that has been written about the future
effects of the phenomenon.

Shock Stage: Initial paralysis at hearing the bad news.
(Inability to relate the prospect of growth cessation to
anything in past experience.) ca. 2000

Denial Stage: Trying to avoid the inevitable. (Rigid refusal
to accept the outlandish notion that cheap oil of the right
kind will end soon.) 2000-2007

Anger Stage: Frustrated outpouring of bottled-up emotion.
(Outrage at "Big Oil," Saudi Arabia, China, government
taxation, etc.) 2005-2009

Bargaining Stage: Seeking in vain for a way out. ("Throw the
bums out" by electing new leaders, heavy investing in
expensive alternatives, calls for "science" to save us,
expecting a deus ex machina.) 2008-2012

Depression Stage: Final realization of the inevitable. (Even
flat-earth economists surrender, presidential politicians
state facts publicly, businesses begin collapsing in droves,
return of the Great Depression foretokens collapse.) 2011-2015

Testing Stage: Seeking realistic solutions. (National
impoverishment forces abandonment of socialist policies and
international development aid, various alternative-energy
schemes tested and most abandoned, local farming grows,
large cities wither, beginnings of martial law to keep
order, interregional conflicts.) 2013-2025

Acceptance Stage: Finally finding the way forward. (War,
collapse.) 2018-2075

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